223Статья поступила 18.03.2024. После доработки 22.03.2024. Принята к печати 28.03.2024.
Ключевые слова: европейская безопасность, СБСЕ/ОБСЕ, Хельсинкский Заключительный акт, Парижская хартия для Новой Европы, ДОВСЕ, расширение НАТО, война в Югославии, кавказский кризис, украинский конфликт, постконфликтные сценарии
European security has always depended on relations between East and West, the leaders of which were the USSR and the USA. And today, more than ever, European security depends on the state of relations between Russia and the West, which over the past 30 years have gone through several stages – big expectations, missed opportunities, an unprecedented crisis, and unknown future. The Ukrainian conflict, which can be seen as the quintessence of this unprecedented crisis, confronts Russia and the West with an unknown future. The end of bipolarity, which eliminated the ideological barriers between the former adversaries, opened up unprecedented prospects for the construction of a new European security system. However, it was during this favorable period from the point of view of the international situation that new contradictions arose between Russia and the West, which marked the beginning of the erosion of the concept of European security and the achievements of the Helsinki Final Act and the Charter of Paris. Whatever the scenarios of the Ukraine conflict evolution, it is clear that its outcome will determine the future architecture of European security. If we discard the most dramatic scenario of a nuclear conflict, the range of options is not very wide. Given deep divides between Russia and the West, two models of Europe that could result from the Ukraine conflict are feasible now. One model is “Europe of the Berlin crisis of 1948–1949 or 1961”, which means a new divide of Europe and Ukraine like it was in the time of bipolarity symbolized by a divided Berlin. The second model is more optimistic – “Europe of the Berlin agreements of the 70s” that opened a window for settling the most urgent issues in Europe and led to the Helsinki Act of 1975. In the context of this scenario, there will be return to peaceful coexistence and limited cooperation on European security, which would require again an inclusive nature and framework of the OSCE.
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