США–ИРАН: между “максимальным давлением” и “героической гибкостью”

284
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-7-69-79

А. Шумилин, Институт Европы РАН, РФ, 125009 Москва, ул. Моховая ул., д. 11, стр. 3 (mideast@bk.ru)

Аннотация. В статье анализируются причины, определяющие эволюцию концептуального подхода Соединенных Штатов к Исламской Республике Иран (ИРИ) за время четырех администраций (от Б. Клинтона до Д. Трампа), а также основные факторы, влиявшие на формирование политики ИРИ в отношении США. С середины 90-х годов до последнего времени подход Вашингтона претерпел существенные изменения – от доктрины “сдерживания ИРИ” до “кампании максимального давления” на иранское руководство. Политика нынешней администрации США фактически поставила регион Персидского залива на грань полномасштабного военного взрыва (обмен ракетными ударами в январе 2020 г.). Однако и Тегеран в последние годы заметно ужесточал провозглашенную в 2013 г. аятоллой А. Хаменеи внешнеполитическую линию “героической гибкости”. И все же, несмотря на гигантское военное превосходство над Ираном, США стремятся избегать прямого столкновения с ним. Причина не только в прогнозируемых потерях с обеих сторон. Сверхзадача американского истеблишмента – вернуть Иран в лоно партнерства с США. В Тегеране это понимают, а потому время от времени направляют Вашингтону примирительные послания.

Ключевые слова: Иран, США, СВПД, ядерная сделка, “максимальное давление”, “героическая гибкость”, санкции, конфронтация, Персидский залив, арабские монархии


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Размещено в РИНЦ

Ссылка для цитирования:

Шумилин А. США–ИРАН: между “максимальным давлением” и “героической гибкостью”. Мировая экономика и международные отношения, 2020, т. 64, № 7, сс. 69-79. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-7-69-79



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