Е. Арапова, МГИМО МИД России, РФ, 119454 Москва, пр-т Вернадского, 76 (arapova_katrin@mail.ru)
Аннотация. Большинство государств азиатского региона сегодня движется по пути расширения внутреннего потребления посредством смягчения денежно-кредитной политики и проведения стимулирующей налогово-бюджетной политики. В статье оцениваются перспективы роста регионального потребления с учетом интенсивности макропруденциальных реформ и их влияния на динамику потребительских расходов. Установлено, что налогово-бюджетные инструменты могут оказывать более заметное влияние на рост внутреннего спроса по сравнению с денежно-кредитными рычагами. Сделан вывод, что при сохранении за Китаем лидирующих позиций в региональном потреблении в среднесрочной перспективе может вырасти вклад Республики Корея и Таиланда.
Ключевые слова: Азия, потребление, экономическая политика, налогово-бюджетное стимулирование, денежно-кредитное смягчение, процентные ставки, государственные расходы
Статья подготовлена при финансовой поддержке РГНФ, грант № 16-07-50004 “Комплексная оценка перспектив общерегиональной экономической интеграции в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе с позиции стратегических интересов России”. Результаты исследования были частично представлены на конференции молодых ученых “АТР – новый центр мировой экономики и политики?”, проведенной в ИМЭМО РАН 27 мая 2016 г.
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