World crisis: paradoxes of analysis and scenario options for development // Population and Economics : e-journal. 2020. Vol. 4, Issue 2. P. 153-157. DOI 10.3897/popecon.4.e54379. URL: https://populationandeconomics.pensoft.net/article/54379/. Date of publication: 01.06.2020.
DOI: 10.3897/popecon.4.e54379
During the period of global crises, economists often form the belief that the current shocks are unique and after them “the world economy will no longer be the same”. At first glance, the current crisis gives every reason for similar generalizations. However, the analysis shows that both the crisis deployment mechanisms and the factors of its exacerbation demonstrate a high degree of continuity with previous episodes of crisis dynamics. This means that getting out of crisis will also be not a unique challenge, but a task closely linked to previous global experience of anti-crisis policy. Calculations show that the depth of the economic recession in the Russian Federation can be about one and a half times higher than the expected rate of decline in the global economy, and real population income in 2020 under a negative scenario can decrease by more than 10%. This means that the income support should become one of the top priorities of the anti-crisis policy in Russia. Ignoring it can not only make the crisis deeper but also bring give to problems in the socio-political sphere.
Ключевые слова: world economy | global crisis | coronavirus | GDP | protectionism | oil prices | Russia | population income |
Размещено в РИНЦ
ДРУГИЕ ПУБЛИКАЦИИ НА ЭТУ ТЕМУ:
Russia in Polycentric World. (перевод с русск.) Eds. A.A. Dynkin and N.I. Ivanova. M., Ves Mir Publishers, 2012, 580 p.
Афонцев С.А., Кобринская И.Я., Мачавариани Г.И., Загорский А.В., Журавлева В.Ю., Звягельская И.Д., Вода К.Р., Кожанов Н.А., Давыдов А.А., Давыдов О.В., Дмитриев С.С., Ломанов А.В., Луконин С.А., Малышева Д.Б., Михеев В.В., Работяжев Н.В., Свистунова И.А., Ибрагимов И.Э., Кислицын С.В., Соловьев Э.Г., Кузьмина Е.М., Сурков Н.Ю., Уткин С.В., Федоровский А.Н., Фрумкин Б.Е., Швыдко В.Г., Канаев Е.А., Самарская Л.М.
Russia and the world: 2020 IMEMO forecast // New Perspectives. 2020. DOI 10.1177/2336825X20954758. URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2336825X20954758. Published online: 16.09.2020.
Дынкин А.А., Телегина Е.А.
Globalization and the World Order in the New Realities of the Post-COVID World // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91, Issue 4. P. 414-418. DOI 10.1134/S101933162104002X.
Салицкий А.И., Таций В.В.
Зарождение биполярности или солидерство? / А.И. Салицкий, В.В. Таций // Восток. Афро-Азиатские общества: История и современность. – 2012. – № 3. – С. 87–97.
Дынкин А.А., Арбатова Н.К.
World Order after Ukraine Survival: Global Politics and Strategy [Text] /N. K. Arbatova, A. A. Dynkin // Survival. – 2016.– Vol. 58. – № 1. – P. 71 – 90.
Дынкин А.А.
International Turbulence and Russia // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2020. Vol. 90, Issue 2. P. 127-137. DOI 10.1134/S101933162002001X.
Красильщиков В.А.
Brazil and Russia: Similarities and Differences of the Development Trajectories [Text] / Victor Krasilshchikov // Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar. – 2013. – № 15. – P. 265 – 287.
Копытин И.А.
Influence of Oil Prices on Stock Market Indexes in Russia and Norway [Text] / I.A. Kopytin // Studies on Russian Economic Development. – 2014. – V. 25. – № 1. – рр. 99 – 110.
Russia and the World: 2016. IMEMO Forecast [Text] / A. Dynkin, V. Baranovsky, I. Kobrinskaya, G. Machavariani et al. // New Perspectives. – 2015. – V. 24. – Issue 2. – P. 93 – 122.
Strategic Global Outlook: 2030. Short version (in english) / Ed. by Alexander A. Dynkin. – M., IMEMO RAN, 2011, 56 p.
Володин А.Г.
The return of history. World politics in the early twenty-first century // World Affairs. The Journal of International Issues. 2020. Vol. 24, Issue 2, Summer (April-June). P. 10-37.
Салицкий А.И.
The United States and China: Deadlocks and Paradoxes of Trade War // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2020. Vol. 90, Issue 4. P. 460-469. DOI 10.1134/S101933162004005X.
Садовая Е.С.
Social Challenges of the Digital Economy: Russia in a Global Context // Social Sciences : A Quarterly Journal of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 52, Issue 4. P. 35-48. DOI 10.21557/SSC.72349728.
Данилин И.В.
The U.S.-China Technological War: Digital Technologies as a New Factor of World Politics? // Russia in Global Affairs. 2021. Vol. 19, Issue 4. P. 78-96. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2021-19-4-78-96.
Global «Perestroika». Transformations of the World Order = Globalnaya perestroika : translation from Russian : updated version. Ed. bу А.A. Dynkin, N.I. Ivanova. Moscow: VES MIR Publishers, 2015, 537 p.
Войтоловский Ф.Г.
US Strategy in a Changing World Order: Challenges for Russia // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91, Issue 4. P. 393-402. DOI 10.1134/S1019331621040080.
Стрежнева М.В.
The European Union as a Global Actor: The Case of the Financial Transaction Tax [Text] / M. V. Strezhneva // European Review. – 2018. – Vol. 26. – Issue 4. – P. 704-720. DOI: 10.1017/S1062798718000418.
The World of 2035. Global Outlook. Prof. Alexander Dynkin, ed. – Moscow: Magistr, 2018. – 304 pp.
Арбатова Н.К.
The impact of the Caucasus crisis on the regional and European Security / Nadia Alexandrova-Arbatova // Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies. – 2009. –V. 9. – Issue 3. – P. 287–300.
Загашвили В.С.
Possible Consequences of Russia’s Accession to the WTO [Text] / V.S. Zagashvili // Russian Foreign Economic Journal = Российский внешнеэкономический вестник. English Supplement. – 2013. – № 1(1). – P. 21 – 27.
Еще публикации по теме







Нет комментариев