Копытин И.А., Масленников А.О., Синицын М.В., Жуков С.В., Золина С.А.
Will carbon tax constrain oil production in Сanada? // Solovev D. (ed.) Smart Technologies and Innovations in Design for Control of Technological Processes and Objects: Economy and Production. FarEastСon 2018. SIST book series. Springer, Cham. 2020. Vol. 138. С. 793-803. DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-15577-3_73.
Тип публикации:

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-15577-3_73

The article aims to assess how introduction of carbon tax will impact oil production in Canada in the long run. Two oil exporting countries, Norway and Canada, introduced carbon tax in 1991 and 2018 respectively. In Norway carbon tax has not constrained oil production and development of costly hydrocarbon reserves in the Arctic areas. We build a simple econometric model for Canada's oil demand and supply until 2040 in reference and low carbon scenarios. Carbon tax is explicitly inbuilt into the model based on the assumption that producers fully pass costs of carbon tax onto consumers of petroleum products. Demand is modelled bottom-up individually for economic sectors, including road transport, air transport, marine and water transport, industry, commercial sector, etc. On the basis of modelling results we argue that in the projection period carbon tax will have a minor constraining impact on oil production growth in Canada. Demand for petroleum products will contract more deeply compared to crude oil production. The continuously increasing export orientation of the Canadian oil sector will partially shield it from the carbon tax. Given the global advancement of low carbon paradigm, analysis of Norway and Canada experience with carbon tax is crucially important for all large oil producing countries.

Historical statistical data for the model was accumulated from the databases of Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB), International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United Nations (UN), International Labour Organization (ILO), International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) and the World Bank.

Ключевые слова: Carbon tax | Canada | Oil production | Oil consumption | Low carbon paradigm | Stranded assets | Unburnable oil |

Размещено в РИНЦ


Копытин И.А., Масленников А.О., Жуков С.В.
Europe in World Natural Gas Market: International Transmission of European Price Shocks // International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 2022. Vol. 12, Issue 3. P. 8-15. DOI 10.32479/ijeep.12941.

Жуков С.В., Резникова О.Б.
Energy Transition in the United States, Europe and China: Latest Trends // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2023. Vol. 34, Issue 4. P. 439-449. DOI 10.1134/S1075700723040160.

Аносов Б.А.
Activating Consumer Demand as a Key to Successful Development of the PRC Economy // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2021. Vol. 32, Issue 6. P. 705-711. DOI 10.1134/S1075700721060022.

Кузнецов А.В.
Framework for the Analysis of Geography of Transnational Corporations Investments Abroad. [Text] / A.V. Kuznetsov // Baltic Region = Baltijskij Region. – 2016. – № 3. – P. 22 – 32.

Никитина Е.Н., Пусенкова Н.Н.
Petroleum CSR in Russia: Affordable Luxury or Basic Necessity? [Text] / N. Poussenkova, E. Nikitina // Russian analytical digest. – 2016. – № 181. – P. 3 – 7.

Варнавский В.Г.
Analysing the dynamics of the Baltic States’s production linkages with Russia // Baltic Region. 2022. Vol. 14, Issue 2. P. 4-22. DOI 10.5922/2079-8555-2022-2-1.

Ломанов А.В., Yan Xiao
China’s Theoretical Innovation and Economic Policy in the New Era // World Socialism Studies : ISSN 2096-2630. 2021. Issue 3. P. 14-19, 89.

Пусенкова Н.Н.
Arctic Offshore Oil in Russia: Optimism, Pessimism and Realism // Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право. 2021. Vol. 14, Special Issue. P. 62-80. DOI 10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-5-86-108.

Субботин М.А.
Возвращение изгоя / М.А. Субботин // Нефть России. – 2011. – № 2. – С. 10–13.

Кудров В.М.
Модернизация и инновации – главные моторы современного прогресса / В.М. Кудров // Современная Европа. – 2012. – № 3. – С. 65–76.

Цапенко И.П.
Forced Mobility and Immobility in a Turbulent World // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91, Issue 5. P. 525-534. DOI 10.1134/S1019331621050099.

Кузнецов А.В.
Russian Direct Investment as a Factor of Eurasian Integration [Text] / Aleksei Kuznetsov // Problems of Economic Transition. – 2016. – № 4. – P. 348 – 361.

Клинова М.В.
The Transformation of State Enterprises in Russian Networks, 1990-2005 / Transforming public enterprise in Europe and North America: networks, integration and transnationalisation. Ed. by J. Clifton, F. Comín, D. Díaz-Fuentes. London: PALGRAVE MACMILLAN, 2007. - P. 157-171.

Володин А.Г.
Russia: “late take off” society in the whirlwind of world politics // World Affairs. 2021. Vol. 25, Issue 2. P. 48-69.

Хантингтон Х., Олсен Дж., Загорский А.В.
Effects of Arctic commercial shipping on environments and communities: context, governance, priorities // Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2023. Vol. 118, Art. 103731. DOI 10.1016/j.trd.2023.103731.

Д. Люссанж, Белянин А.В., С. Буржуа-Жиронд, Б. Гуткин
Learning and cognition in financial markets: A paradigm shift for agent-based models. Intelligent Systems Conference, IntelliSys 2020. London; United Kingdom, 3-4.09.2020 // Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing (AISC) book series. 2021. Vol. 1252 : Intelligent Systems and Applications. P. 241-255. DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-55190-2_19.

Володин А.Г.
External challenges as a driving force of domestic development // World Affairs. Vol. 23, № 4. P. 10-31.

Артамонова У.З.
“Popcorn Diplomacy”: American Blockbusters and World Order // Russia in Global Affairs. 2022. Vol. 20, Issue 2. P. 105-128. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2022-20-2-105-128.

Дынкин А.А., Пантин В.И.
A Peaceful Clash. The US and China: Which Model Holds Out Promise for the Future? [Text] / A. Dynkin, V. Pantin // World Futures: The Journal of Global Education. – 2012.– V.68. – Issue 7. – P. 506 – 517.

Бубнова Н.И.
Total Sanctions in the Context of “Integrated Deterrence”: Western Countries’ Response to Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2022. Vol. 92, Issue Suppl. 13. S1230–S1239. DOI 10.1134/S1019331622190054.
Еще публикации по теме

Комментарии (0)

Нет комментариев

Добавить комментарий

Актуальные комментарии
Новости Института

На сайте Российского совета по международным делам опубликована статья Ивана Щедрова «В борьбе за «тяжелый люкс»: как туристическая отрасль стала предметом спора в индийско-мальдивских отношениях».



В Мумбаи состоялась экспертная встреча сотрудников ИМЭМО РАН, Мумбайского университета и индийского аналитического центра Observer Research Foundation. В ходе дискуссии обсуждался фактор Китая в российско-индийских отношениях, логистические пути на Ближнем Востоке, в Южной и Центральной Азии, а также роль России в регионе Индийского океана.


Вышли из печати