Савельев А.Г.
Nuclear Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Missile Defence // Russia in Global Affairs. 2023. Vol. 21, Issue 4 (84). P. 10-23. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-10-23.
Тип публикации:
Рубрика:


ISSN 1810-6374

DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-10-23

The article addresses a set of problems pertaining to nuclear deterrence, strategic stability, and missile defense. The author states that as a derivative of nuclear deterrence strategic stability can only be applied to military-strategic relations between Russia and the United States. This concept “does not work” in all other cases, including the multilateral format of relations. Nuclear deterrence is more universal and impacts, among other things, the decision-making process in relatively strong and weak nuclear states that oppose each other. The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is not determined solely by the balance of opposing forces. No less important is the assessment by a potential aggressor of all the negative consequences of its decision to strike first, which creates the “self-deterrence” effect that outweighs even the aggressor’s absolute confidence in the complete military success of its nuclear attack. The author also insists that missile defense is undeservedly considered a “destabilizing” weapons system, because the baseline scenario involving a massive exchange of nuclear strikes, which is used for estimating the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and the level of strategic stability, is completely far-fetched.


Ключевые слова: nuclear deterrence | strategic stability | nuclear weapons | first strike | targeting of nuclear weapons | missile defense |

Размещено в РИНЦ


Ссылка при цитировании:

Savel'ev A. Nuclear Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Missile Defence. – Russia in Global Affairs. 2023. Vol. 21, Issue 4 (84). P. 10-23. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2023-21-4-10-23.




ДРУГИЕ ПУБЛИКАЦИИ НА ЭТУ ТЕМУ:

Савельев А.Г., Александрия О.
What Factors Affect Strategic Stability? // Russia in Global Affairs. 2022. Vol. 20, Issue 1. P. 93-111. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2022-20-1-93-111.

Богданов К.В.
Russian Nuclear Weapons: Reason or Feeling? // Ethics and Armed Forces : e-journal. 2020. Issue 1. P. 64-69. URL: http://www.ethikundmilitaer.de/en/full-issues/20201-nuclear-deterrence/bogdanov-russian-nuclear-weapons-reason-or-feelings/ (аccessed date: 16.10.2020).

Аничкина Т.Б.
The future of US-Russian nuclear deterrence and arms control [Text] / T. Anichkina, A. Pezceli, N. Roth // Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. – 2017. – Vol. 73. – No 4. – P. 271-278.

Арбатов А.Г.
The vicissitudes of Russian missile defense [Text] / А. Arbatov // Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. – 2018. – Vol. 74. – Issue 4. – P. 227-237. DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2018.1486595

Non-Nuclear Factors of Nuclear Disarmament (Ballistic Missile Defense, High-Precision Conventional Weapons, Space Arms). Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, Sergey Oznobishchev. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2010, 67 p.

Арбатов А.Г.
Global Stability in the Nuclear World // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91, Issue 3. P. 364-373. DOI 10.1134/S1019331621030023.

Стефанович Д.В.
Nuclear Posture and Technology Trends in South Asia and Ways Ahead // The National Security Journal. 2022. Vol. 3, Issue 4. Art. 11. DOI 10.36878/nsj20220301.11.

Арбатов А.Г.
Controlling Nuclear Arms in a Multipolar World // Survival. 2024. Vol. 66, Issue 6. P. 87-102. DOI 10.1080/00396338.2024.2432195.

Топычканов П.В.
US–Soviet/Russian Dialogue on the Nuclear Weapons Programme of India [Text] / P. V. Topychkanov // Strategic Analysis. – 2018. – Vol. 42. – Issue 3. – P. 251-259 . DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2018.1463958.

Загорский А.В.
Tactical nuclear weapons/ A.V. Zagorsky // Security and Human Rights. - 2011. - V. 22. - Issue 4. P. 399-410.

Лучина М.С.
Russia and China in the Great Strategic Triangle // Russia in Global Affairs. 2025. Issue 4. P. 118-133. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2025-23-4-118-133.

Куприянов А.В.
Exploring the Impact of Submarine Saturation on Strategic Stability in South Asia // The National Security Journal. 2022. Vol. 3, Issue 4. Art. 8. DOI 10.36878/nsj20220227.08.

Стефанович Д.В.
The view from Moscow: The future of nuclear arms control exists, but the path is hard // Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2026. Vol. 82, Issue 3. P. 195-198. DOI 10.1080/00963402.2026.2657745.

Стефанович Д.В.
Missile Trends in South-East Asia // Новый оборонный заказ. Стратегии. 2022. № 1 (72). P.  71-76.

Аничкина Т.Б.
Limit missile defense - or expand it?: A Russian response [Text] / T. Anichkina // Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. – 2015. – V. 71. – Issue 2. – Р. 17 – 20.

Кривопалов А.А.
The Signaling Function of Nuclear Deterrence and Some Non-Obvious Historical Parallels // Russia in Global Affairs. 2026. Vol. 24, Issue 1. P. 59-72. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2026-24-1-59-72.

Богданов К.В.
Do Not Invite Disaster // Russia in Global Affairs. 2025. Vol. 23, Issue 2. P. 38-42. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2025-23-2-38-42.

Арбатова Н.К.
Domestic Debate in Russia About Arms Control and Nuclear Weapons In: Cotta-Ramusino, P., Lowenthal, M., Maiani, L., Pellecchia, E. (eds) Nuclear Risks and Arms Control - Problems and Progresses in the Time of Pandemics and War. EAC 2022. Springer Proceedings in Physics, vol 291. Springer, Cham. 2023. P.65-70. DOI 10.1007/978-3-031-29708-3_8.

Арбатов А.Г.
Saving Nuclear Arms Control [Text] / A. Arbatov // Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. – 2016. – Vol. 72. – № 3. – P. 165 – 170.

Карасев П.А.
Cyber factors of Strategic Stability // Russia in Global Affairs. 2020. Vol. 18, Issue 3 (71). P. 24-52. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2020-18-3-24-52.
Еще публикации по теме


Комментарии (0)

Нет комментариев

Добавить комментарий







Актуальные комментарии
Новости Института
12.08.2026

Вышел из печати 2-й номер журнала «Россия и новые государства Евразии» за 2026 г. Традиционно авторы журнала уделяют большое внимание странам, расположенным в европейской части постсоветского пространства. Ученые, прежде всего, анализируют события в Молдово-Приднестровском регионе.

подробнее...

07.08.2026

Выходит в свет очередной выпуск журнала «МЭ и МО» (№ 8, 2026). Большое внимание в номере уделено актуальным вопросам глобальной экономике. Публикуются статьи о состоянии и перспективах глобальной налоговой реформы; о стратегическом форсайте ТНК в условиях глобальной неопределенности; о некоторых особенностях режимов экономических санкций.

подробнее...

Вышли из печати