Nowcasting Migration Using Statistics of Online Queries // Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2022. Vol. 15, Issue 1. P. 74-89. DOI 10.15838/esc.2022.1.79.4.
ISSN 2307-0331
DOI 10.15838/esc.2022.1.79.4
Due to international migration’s growing importance in modern countries’ lives, there is an increasing need for reliable and relevant forecasts of this process, especially in today’s turbulent world. However, established migration forecasting procedures suffer from a number of limitations, against which innovative approaches based on big data, notably online searches made by potential migrants, offer many advantages. Because of their novelty, such tools have not yet revealed their full explanatory and predictive properties. The work explores the possibility of using these tools to predict the population flows within the post-Soviet space. We hypothesize that there is a there is a statistical relationship between online queries about migration to Russia made by residents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and subsequent human flows from these countries to Russia. The hypothesis was tested using the migration statistics of Rosstat, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Google Trends data on search intensity, and Yandex Wordstat service of word matching for validation of search images. As a result of correlation and regression, we found a moderate dependence of the dynamics of human flows on previous queries, which is most evident at a lag of 6–9 months and at zero lag. Obtaining more accurate results in this and similar studies is hindered by the initial limited predictability of migration behavior due to its contextual, sometimes situational and irrational nature, as well as “noisiness” of statistics of queries and often the flows themselves. The search for universal algorithms of determination of relations between queries and migration flows is seen as the main direction of research in this field.
The article was prepared within the project “Post-crisis world order: Challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement no. 075-15-2020-783).
Ключевые слова: Russia | forecasting | migration | modeling | big data | Russia | online queries | search images | Central Asia |
Размещено в РИНЦ
Ссылка при цитировании:
Tsapenko I., Yurevich M. Nowcasting Migration Using Statistics of Online Queries. – Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2022. Vol. 15, Issue 1. P. 74-89. DOI 10.15838/esc.2022.1.79.4.
ДРУГИЕ ПУБЛИКАЦИИ НА ЭТУ ТЕМУ:
Степанова Е.А.
Russia, Central Asia and Non-traditional Security Threats from Afghanistan following the US Withdrawal // Global Policy. 2022. Vol. 13, Issue 1. P. 138-145. DOI 10.1111/1758-5899.13058.
Малышева Д.Б.
Foreign policy trajectories of post-Soviet Central Asia // Geopolitica. Roma. 2023. Vol. XII, Issue 1. P. 107-120.
Степанова Е.А.
Russia and the Search for Negotiated Solution in Afghanistan // Europe-Asia Studies. 2020. DOI 10.1080/09668136.2020.1826908. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09668136.2020.1826908?journalCode=ceas20. Published online: 26.10.2020.
Дынкин А.А., Миловидов В.Д.
The Science of Foresight: How to Succeed in Strategic Forecasting and Planning // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2023. Vol. 34, Issue 3. P. 285-296. DOI 10.1134/S1075700723030048.
Володин А.Г.
Migrations from Southeast Asia to Western Europe: Historical and Economic Sources and Current Problems // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2023. Vol. 93, Issue 5. P. 275-284. DOI 10.1134/S1019331623010070.
Воронов К.В.
Perceptions of Russia in the european North: signs of the times / K. Voronov //Russian politics and law. – 2010. – V. 48. – № 6. – P.35-50.
Канаев Е.А., Сумский В.В.
Russia’s Progress in Southeast Asia: Modest but Steady [Текст] / V. Sumsky, E. Kanaev, P. Richardson, V. Kozyreм // Russian Analytical Digest. – 2014. – № 145. – С. 2 – 4.
Уткин С.В.
Suspicious Neighbour: Russia's Role in the Quest for the EU's Strategic Autonomy // European Foreign Affairs Review. 2022. Vol. 27, Special Issue. P. 121-136. DOI 10.54648/EERR2022014.
Шавлай Э.П.
India’s and Russia’s approaches to the Indo-Pacific—marrying the two // Russia in Global Affairs. 2021. Vol. 19, Issue 1. P. 98-116. DOI 10.31278/1810-6374-2021-19-1-98-116.
Сумский В.В.
Russia’s Forthcoming Summits with ASEAN and China [Текст] / V. Sumsky // Thinking ASEAN. – 2016. – № 11. – P. 9 – 11.
Тодоров А.А.
Russia in maritime areas off Spitsbergen (Svalbard): Is it worth opening the Pandora's Box? // Marine Policy. 2020. DOI 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104264. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X20309106?via%3Dihub#!. Published online: 22.10.2020.
Халова Г., Иллерицкий Н.И., Рахимов А.
Implementation of projects of international transport corridors on the Eurasian continent as drivers of economic growth of the region // Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development. 2024. Vol. 8, Issue 5. Art. 3624. DOI 10.24294/jipd.v8i5.3624.
Квашнин Ю.Д.
European Urban Strategies for Attracting Highly Skilled Migrants // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2022. Vol. 92, Issue 2. P. S113-S118. DOI 10.1134/S1019331622080068.
Варнавский В.Г., Сергеев П.А.
Structural Shifts Assessment in the Russian Energy Sector Using the Input-Output Model of the World Economy. In: 17th International Conference on Management of Large-Scale System Development (24-26 September 2024, Moscow) : Conferences paper. 2024. ISBN 979-8-3503-7572-5. DOI 10.1109/MLSD61779.2024.10739422. URL: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10739422. Date of publication: 6.11.2024.
Барановский В.Г., Уткин С.В.
Europe as seen from Russia / V. Baranovsky, S. Utkin // Perspectives. – 2012. – V. 20. – Issue 2. – P. 63–82.
Звягельская И.Д.
Russian Policy in the Levant [Text] / I.D. Zvyagelskaya // Uluslararasi Iliskiler. – 2018. – Vol. 15. – Issue 60. – P. 121-133.
Володин А.Г., Салицкий А.И.
Gli interessi della Russia nell’Asia-Pacifico [Text] / A. Volodin, A. Salickij // Istituto di Alti Study in Geopolitica e Scienze Ausiliarie. – 2014. – № 33. – P. 2 – 8.
Миркин Я.М., Кузнецов А., Кузнецова О.
The rocky road to modernity: 20 years of the Russian capital market / O. Kuznetsova, A. Kuznetsov, Y.M. Mirkin // Thunderbird International Business Review. – 2011. – V. 53. - Issue 5. - Р. 661–673.
Володин А.Г.
Russia: “late take off” society in the whirlwind of world politics // World Affairs. 2021. Vol. 25, Issue 2. P. 48-69.
Степанова Е.А.
Foreign Terrorist Fighters from Russia in and after Syria and Iraq: (Trans) National Trends and Threats // Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. 2021. DOI 10.1080/1057610X.2021.1923625. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1057610X.2021.1923625. Published online: 07.06.2021.
Еще публикации по теме
Нет комментариев