Кудинова М.М.
Global Public Debt Since 1995: Long-Term Trends, Current Phase, Medium-Term Outlook for Economic Growth // Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies. 2023. Vol. 06, Issue 04. P. 1392-1401. DOI 10.47191/jefms/v6-i4-01.
Тип публикации:


ISSN 2644-0490

DOI: 10.47191/jefms/v6-i4-01

Topic. The paper aims to identify long-term trends in global public debt (since 1995), provide its current overview (the magnitude of debt, concentration levels among participants and instruments, risk factors in the current phase of debt accumulation) and estimate its impact on global economic development over the medium term. This analysis has significant scientific and practical relevance due to the unprecedented character of factors affecting global level of indebtedness in the past few years (the Covid-19 pandemic since 2020 and the biggest military conflict in Europe since the Second World War since 2022).

Methods. The main sources for the research were reports, outlooks and data bases of national regulators and international organizations (International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank for International Settlements, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) concerning public debt, research in this field conducted by leading research centers and financial market participants.

Results. Two major periods in global debt development over time are shown: 1995 – 2007-08 with stable relative global public debt level, and since 2008 – rising levels of public debt. High levels of concentration in the global debt market and even in higher degree the government securities market are analyzed. These markets are characterized by the highly uneven distribution of debt among advanced and developing economies, state and local governments (central governments are main borrowers), instruments (predominantly global debt is issued through bonds nominated in domestic currencies with a straight fix rate). Risk factors in the current (since 2010) wave of global debt accumulation are described: 1. the magnitude of accumulated debt, its higher rate of growth and distribution among countries; 2. debt accumulation during a prolonged period of weak economic growth and investment activity in the 2010s; 3. the consequences of Covid pandemic and the military conflict in Ukraine. Economic repercussions of a high level of the country’s indebtedness, including its threshold level, are shown. Many key participants of the global public debt market (especially advanced economies) are exposed beyond such threshold. Policy tools for reducing public debt are listed. Preliminary estimates of the medium-term impact of the global debt market conjuncture on global economic development are given. The existence of self-amplifying risks of global stagflation and public debt crisis is revealed.

Discussion. The impact of extraordinary factors affecting economic development in the world from 2020 on the global public debt market requires further research.


Ключевые слова: global public debt | government securities | debt accumulation | Covid-19 pandemic | Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine | debt threshold | financial repression | ultra-accommodative monetary policy | inflation | stagflation |


Ссылка при цитировании:

Kudinova M. Global Public Debt Since 1995: Long-Term Trends, Current Phase, Medium-Term Outlook for Economic Growth. – Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies. 2023. Vol. 06, Issue 04. P. 1392-1401. DOI 10.47191/jefms/v6-i4-01.




ДРУГИЕ ПУБЛИКАЦИИ НА ЭТУ ТЕМУ:

Бубнова Н.И.
Total Sanctions in the Context of “Integrated Deterrence”: Western Countries’ Response to Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2022. Vol. 92, Issue Suppl. 13. S1230–S1239. DOI 10.1134/S1019331622190054.

Арбатова Н.К.
European security after the Ukraine war // In depth : electronic newsletter. 2022. Vol. 19, Issue 3. P. 8-9. URL:http://cceia.unic.ac.cy/wp-content/uploads/IN_DEPTH_2022_19-3.pdf). Data of publication: June 2022.

Дежина И.Г.
Policy framework to stimulate technological innovations in Russia / I. Dezhina // Journal of East-West business. – 2011. – V. 80. – № 12. – P.90-100.

Степанова Е.А.
Russia's Policy on Syria after the Start of Military Engagement [Text] / E. Stepanova // PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos. – 2016. – № 421. – P. 1 – 7.

Бубнова Н.И.
Russia's Policy and International Cooperation: The Challenges and Opportunities of Soft Power // Velikaya A., Simons G. (eds.). Russia's Public Diplomacy: Evolution and Practice. SID book series. Palgrave Macmillan. 2020. P. 79-101. DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-12874-6_5.

Дынкин А.А., Телегина Е.А.
Globalization and the World Order in the New Realities of the Post-COVID World // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91, Issue 4. P. 414-418. DOI 10.1134/S101933162104002X.

Войтоловский Ф.Г.
Transformation of External Conditions for the National Security of Russia [Text] / F. G. Voitolovskii // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – 2019. – Vol. 89. – Issue 2. – P. 128-133. DOI: 10.1134/S1019331619020254

Афонцев С.А., Кобринская И.Я., Мачавариани Г.И., Загорский А.В., Журавлева В.Ю., Звягельская И.Д., Вода К.Р., Кожанов Н.А., Давыдов А.А., Давыдов О.В., Дмитриев С.С., Ломанов А.В., Луконин С.А., Малышева Д.Б., Михеев В.В., Работяжев Н.В., Свистунова И.А., Ибрагимов И.Э., Кислицын С.В., Соловьев Э.Г., Кузьмина Е.М., Сурков Н.Ю., Уткин С.В., Федоровский А.Н., Фрумкин Б.Е., Швыдко В.Г., Канаев Е.А., Самарская Л.М.
Russia and the world: 2020 IMEMO forecast // New Perspectives. 2020. DOI 10.1177/2336825X20954758. URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2336825X20954758. Published online: 16.09.2020.

Степанова Е.А.
Russia's Syria Policy: The Hard Path of Military Disengagement [Text] / E. Stepanova // PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo. – 2018. – Issue 511. – P. 1-7.

Войтоловский Ф.Г.
US Strategy in a Changing World Order: Challenges for Russia // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2021. Vol. 91, Issue 4. P. 393-402. DOI 10.1134/S1019331621040080.

Euro zone crisis: Causes and consequences for the Euro-Atlantic region. Report for the Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative Commission, July 2010. Head of the research and scientific editor A. Dynkin. – M. : IMEMO RAN, 2010. – 31 pp.

Харитонова Е.М., Прохоренко И.Л.
Russian Science Diplomacy // Velikaya A., Simons G. (eds.). Russia's Public Diplomacy: Evolution and Practice. SID book series. Palgrave Macmillan. 2020. P. 133-146. DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-12874-6_8.

Миркин Я.М., Кузнецов А., Кузнецова О.
The rocky road to modernity: 20 years of the Russian capital market / O. Kuznetsova, A. Kuznetsov, Y.M. Mirkin // Thunderbird International Business Review. – 2011. – V. 53. - Issue 5. - Р. 661–673.

Панкова Л.В., Гусарова О.В.
World Innovative Digital Expansion: Characteristics of the Moment // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2022. Vol. 92, Issue 5. P. 617-628. DOI 10.1134/S1019331622050124.

Володин А.Г.
The Logic of Directed Development in Postcolonial India [Text] / A. G. Volodin // Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – 2018. – Vol. 88. – Issue 1. – P. 96-103. DOI: 10.1134/S1019331618010069

Шлауфер К., Пилькина М., Чалая Т., Хайнацкая Т.И., Воронова Т., Поживотко А.
How do civil society organizations communicate in an authoritarian setting? A narrative analysis of the Russian waste management debate // Review of Policy Research. 2022. DOI 10.1111/ropr.12492. URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ropr.12492. First published: 26.06.2022.

Копытин И.А., Пильник Н.П., Станкевич И.П.
Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005–2020 // International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 2021. Vol. 11, Issue 5. P. 510-518. DOI 10.32479/ijeep.11324.

Лунев С.И., Шавлай Э.П.
India as a Global Power: The Strategic Culture Problems // India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs. 2021. DOI 10.1177/09749284211047750. Vol. 77, Issue 4. – P. 525-541.

Варнавский В.Г.
Analysing the dynamics of the Baltic States’s production linkages with Russia // Baltic Region. 2022. Vol. 14, Issue 2. P. 4-22. DOI 10.5922/2079-8555-2022-2-1.
Еще публикации по теме


Комментарии (0)

Нет комментариев

Добавить комментарий







Актуальные комментарии
Новости Института
21.02.2024

Состоялось очередное заседание научно-теоретического семинара ЦСЭПИ по теме «Наука, религия, общество в динамике современного мира». С докладом выступил Евгений Рашковский.

подробнее...

21.02.2024

Вышел из печати 4-ый номер журнала «Россия и новые государства Евразии» за 2023 год. Номер открывает статья о влиянии Украинского кризиса на формирование нового миропорядка. Большое внимание уделено и другим странам, расположенным в европейской части постсоветского пространства.

подробнее...

Вышли из печати