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used image: Donald Trump's victory speech, 2024 // Internet

© Voitolovskaya A.R., 06.11.2024

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, has once again taken both voters and analysts by surprise. Defeating his opponent, Kamala Harris, by a margin of five million votes, Trump improved his performance compared to the 2020 election in nearly every state. This marks the second time he has won a presidential race against a female candidate and the second instance in which an unexpectedly large portion of the electorate has cast their votes for a figure widely regarded as an outsider by the American political establishment. His victory highlights a deep and enduring divide between the government and its citizens that has persisted for over a decade. Unlike previous elections, this outcome cannot be attributed to allegations of Russian interference, voter fraud involving undocumented immigrants, or manipulation of early voting ballots. The American electorate has made its choice, and the results speak for themselves.

However, what truly shocked experts was not just Trump’s victory, but also the broader political shift that accompanied it. On November 5, Americans also voted in a new Congress, electing the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. According to the final vote tally, both chambers of Congress will be controlled by the Republican Party. This means that, for at least the next two years – until the midterm elections – Trump will face minimal opposition from the legislative branch, granting him a historically rare degree of political leverage.

Why Did America Choose Trump Again?

Polling Failures and Media Bias. Public opinion polling and media coverage throughout the election cycle created a misleading narrative that Kamala Harris held a slight advantage. Many major media outlets, particularly those that endorsed Harris during her relatively brief campaign, contributed to an information environment in which the vice president was perceived as the frontrunner. However, just days before the election, pollsters began to raise concerns. When comparing national polling data with state-level figures – typically considered more reliable – analysts realized that the race was far less competitive than previously thought. Instead of a narrow 2.5-3% margin in key swing states, as initially reported, some regional data suggested Trump held leads of 10% or more.

Large polling firms, wary of repeating the mistakes of 2020 – when the COVID-19 pandemic complicated both voter behavior and electoral forecasting—hesitated to publish findings that deviated from the prevailing narrative. This created an information «domino effect», in which major institutions suppressed or downplayed data that suggested a significant Republican advantage, fearing reputational damage if their predictions proved inaccurate. When Americans ultimately cast their ballots, the results defied expectations, revealing a profound misalignment between polling projections and actual voter behavior.

The Role of Candidate Image. Throughout August and September, American voters awaited clear policy platforms from both candidates. However, following the national conventions of both parties and the Trump-Harris debates, they were left with little substantive policy discussion. Instead, much of the campaign was dominated by populist slogans lacking detailed policy proposals. Against this backdrop, Trump’s political persona appeared more compelling than Harris’s, whose campaign suffered from a lack of clarity and consistency.

Harris entered the race exceptionally late by historical standards, further complicating her ability to establish a strong public image. Additionally, as vice president – a position traditionally limited in decision-making authority since the tenure of John Adams – her political role had remained largely ceremonial. Harris’s campaign failed to craft a well-defined electoral platform or to shape an effective public image. Over the course of nearly three months, Kamala Harris presented herself in contradictory ways: as a left-wing progressive, a centrist, an opponent of gun rights, an advocate for gun rights, a defender of undocumented immigrants, and a proponent of stricter border policies. This inconsistency left voters uncertain about her core beliefs and policy priorities.

By contrast, Trump, despite his polarizing nature, represented a familiar choice for American voters. His previous presidency had already shaped public perceptions of his leadership. Under his administration, the country had navigated the COVID-19 crisis, avoided new foreign conflicts, and implemented economic policies that many Americans still regarded as beneficial. Most importantly, his economic agenda inspired greater confidence among voters than that of his opponent.

Despite the positive economic trends that the Democratic Party sought to highlight during the campaign, public sentiment was far from optimistic. While key economic indicators in 2024 showed growth, the lived experience of many Americans told a different story. Disposable income increased by a mere 0.6% year over year, while household expenses rose by 2.2% over the same period. The personal savings rate remained critically low at 2.9% of disposable income, exacerbated by record-high credit card debt during a period of historically high interest rates.

The Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy further constrained the housing market, reducing supply in the secondary housing sector and accelerating home price inflation. For many Americans, this created a deep sense of economic dissonance: while official statistics suggested recovery and growth, their purchasing power and financial stability continued to erode. This sentiment fueled the perception that the Democratic Party was misleading voters—claiming economic success while ordinary citizens felt financially worse off. Donald Trump, now the 47th President of the United States, capitalized on this frustration, presenting himself as the leader who truly understood and prioritized the economic struggles of working Americans.

What to Expect from the 47th President of the United States?

Trump’s Economic Agenda. Donald Trump has pledged to implement tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, with tariffs on Chinese goods potentially reaching 60%. He asserts that these tariffs will protect American jobs and reduce the country’s reliance on foreign imports. Furthermore, he claims that this policy will not lead to higher prices for Americans, as the costs will be absorbed by foreign producers. During his previous term, tariffs were imposed on steel and aluminum, justified by national security concerns. Financial markets responded to Trump’s electoral victory with a decline in the value of the yuan.

Trump also promises to eliminate taxes on tips, reform the Social Security system, extend the tax cuts enacted in 2017, and reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. He argues that these measures will stimulate job growth, particularly within small businesses.

Energy costs were another prominent issue in Trump’s campaign. He pledged to halve energy expenses for Americans within a year. At the National Convention, Trump proposed expanding oil and gas drilling while easing restrictions on power plants as a means of reducing fuel prices.

Immigration Policy and Abortion Issues. Trump’s platform also addressed ethically sensitive and ideologically charged topics such as immigration and abortion rights. However, here too, the former president strategically aligned his rhetoric with the economic interests of voters. Trump stated that, if re-elected, he would prioritize mass deportations, arguing that such actions would lower housing prices and raise wages for American workers. His campaign, along with vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance, includes a commitment to end birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants, which has raised concerns within immigrant communities.

Regarding the abortion ban—one of the most politically perilous issues for Trump—he successfully decentralized the matter, delegating the decision to individual states, allowing their legislation to determine the procedure for abortion. This move, while distancing Trump from a highly contentious issue, did not prevent his re-election, even though it resulted in a significant loss of votes from women.

Trump’s Foreign Policy. The European Union remains the principal ally of the United States in both security and economic matters. Despite the ongoing economic interdependence between the U.S. and China, political considerations dominate the strategic formation under the Republican president. For industries such as oil, the military-industrial complex, and companies involved in the «old» technological cycle (e.g., steel and large agro-industrial firms), issues surrounding access to the Chinese market and the protection of the domestic U.S. market are paramount. Consequently, these sectors are inclined to escalate the confrontation with China, thus contributing to more aggressive presidential rhetoric.

Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, the region will be considered peripheral in the U.S. foreign policy strategy. However, the security of the U.S.’s primary ally, Israel, will remain a top priority. Tensions with Iran are likely to escalate. The United States will continue to support Saudi Arabia as a key regional ally and as a market for American arms.

Regarding Russia, as in other global regions, U.S. policy will be formulated through the lens of confrontation with China. Moderate Republicans will seek to prevent a Russian victory, viewing it as a «bad signal» to China. Conservative Republicans, including Trump, will likely attempt to shift responsibility for the Ukraine conflict onto European partners, believing that it diverts critical U.S. resources and attention from its principal adversary, China.

With respect to Latin American neighbors, given Trump’s stance on immigration along the southwestern border, a significant cooling of relations can be expected. This may extend to the use of economic and coercive measures to influence the governments of these nations.

Trump’s presidency promises to be equally eventful in domestic politics. He has repeatedly vowed to “drain the Washington swamp,” signifying his intent to combat the political establishment. His administration may seek reforms in a variety of sectors, including the Department of Justice, the education system, and other governmental institutions. Whether these efforts will be received positively by Americans and whether Trump can address their growing dissatisfaction with the government will remain to be seen.