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used image: Japanese Parliament (Chamber of the House of Representatives) // Internet

© Shvydko V.G., 05.11.2024

The snap elections for Japan’s House of Representatives, held on October 27, produced an unexpected outcome. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—the dominant force in Japanese politics, which has maintained control over both houses of parliament and formed successive governments for decades—lost its outright majority. Although it remains the largest parliamentary party, this result signifies a major setback for its leadership, particularly for its new chairman, Shigeru Ishiba, who assumed both the party leadership and the position of Prime Minister following the LDP chairmanship elections in September.

Ishiba’s decision to call early elections before the expiration of the previous parliamentary term, anticipating a surge in voter support following the leadership transition, has proven to be a strategic miscalculation. The election outcome failed to validate his expectation that the departure of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, whose popularity and political charisma had significantly declined, would signal a revitalization of the party and convince the electorate of its capacity for internal renewal and effective governance. Furthermore, the results highlight the crucial role of public image in electoral politics. Ishiba’s lack of a strong media presence and direct engagement with the broader electorate—focusing instead on internal party dynamics—appears to have negatively influenced voter preferences.

Although Ishiba’s immediate resignation is not currently under discussion, his standing within the party has clearly weakened. As a result, his ability to build coalitions and push forward politically sensitive or controversial policy decisions has been diminished. Moving forward, he will need to engage in greater compromise and negotiation with opposition parties to secure legislative support for key political and personnel decisions.

Beyond the electoral setback for the LDP, the election results and subsequent political developments offer valuable insights into contemporary Japanese political dynamics that are often overlooked by observers. These underlying trends, while not always immediately visible, are crucial for understanding the broader implications of the election and Japan’s evolving political landscape.

Firstly, the Japanese political system has long been, and remains, relatively stable. Institutional mechanisms designed to shield state institutions, including parliament, from external interference by non-mainstream and radical forces remain firmly in place. Consequently, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s loss of its majority in the lower house primarily benefits the systemic opposition, which operates within the established political and economic mainstream, rather than populist or ideologically radical factions. Even in the event of a shift in the composition of the ruling coalition, the government’s overall orientation will continue to reflect the collective outlook of the privileged political class. Despite differences in specific policies, this elite remains fundamentally committed to preserving domestic political and social stability while reinforcing Japan’s international stature as the leading Asian representative of the “collective West”.

Secondly, public sentiment remains largely contained within the boundaries of this elite consensus, preventing any destabilizing effect on the existing political system. Mainstream media and major internet platforms continue to exert sufficient influence to limit the rise of populist politicians or leaders of quasi-religious movements. Political competition between mainstream forces remains confined to ideological nuances and policy implementation strategies, ensuring continuity across successive administrations. This continuity strengthens the stability of the political system and provides Japan’s international partners with a predictable framework for long-term engagement.

Thirdly, party loyalty continues to play a dominant role in electoral behavior among significant segments of the population. However, a growing factor in voter decision-making is the emotional response to high-profile political issues, particularly those amplified by the media. Scandals involving politicians, government policies perceived as neglecting ordinary citizens, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and failures in governance have emerged as key drivers of voter sentiment. In the recent elections, public dissatisfaction over financial misconduct within the LDP, challenges in the digitalization of social security systems, and inefficiencies in public services during crises played a decisive role in shaping the electoral outcome. There is broad consensus that such immediate concerns exerted a greater influence on voter behavior than shifts in ideological affiliations or long-term political convictions.

Fourthly, the elections underscored the growing importance of personal charisma in political leadership, a trend driven by the expanding role of digital communication and social media. As traditional forms of professional and territorial self-organization decline, political figures aspiring to leadership must focus not only on securing the backing of influential insiders (“kingmakers”) but also on developing a compelling public relations strategy. The ability to engage with a broad, loosely organized electorate—whose reactions are often spontaneous and emotion-driven—has become increasingly crucial for electoral success. Neglecting these aspects has already led to significant electoral setbacks and is likely to become even more consequential in the future.

Finally, it becomes clear that fundamental changes in Japan’s state policy are only possible through significant long-term shifts in the political class’s mindset, rather than through the implementation of even the most sophisticated and “advanced” electoral tactics and strategies by individual players.