Abstract. Over the past ten years, and especially after the exogenous shock of COVID-19, the global oil market has been developing in a fairly predictable inertial regime. In 2016, Saudi Arabia finally admitted that it had lost the price war with producers of American hard-to-recover oil, and began to reduce oil production, which removed the main obstacle to continuing its expansion in the United States and other countries of the Western Hemisphere. At the end of 2016, for the first time, OPEC countries shared the burden of reducing oil production with 11 other non-OPEC oil exporting countries. in order to maintain oil prices. The historically unprecedented collapse in global oil demand in 2020 coincided with the attempt to terminate the OPEC+ agreement. Under pressure from the United States, the exporting countries returned to cooperation and agreed to deeply reduce oil production within the agreed quotas, ceding market niches to competitors. The current mode of functioning of the global oil market has withstood the shocks of Western sanctions against the Russian oil sector in 2022-2024, which in a short time reoriented supplies from the European direction to the countries of the AsiaPacific region. However, towards the end of 2024 and especially at the beginning of 2025, there were clearly signs that the global oil market was preparing to enter a new mode of development.