Abstract. During 2024, the global economy managed to find a delicate balance of resilience in the face of the geopolitical challenges it has faced since 2022. Global GDP increased by 3.3% in annual terms, which is only 0.2 percentage points worse than in the previous year. At the same time, economically developed countries, which suffered the most from the effects of geopolitical shocks in the previous period, accelerated GDP growth from 1.7% to 1.8%, while in emerging markets, on the contrary, growth slowed from 4.7% to 4.3%. For the second year in a row, the Russian economy demonstrated growth rates exceeding global ones (3.8% in annual terms), but in the second half of the year it faced structural constraints that triggered the launch of a policy to combat“inflationary overheating”. If in 2025 the policy of limiting domestic demand is continued to the detriment of measures aimed at expanding supply, Russia risks losing the achievements gained through the restructuring of the economic development model in the face of sanctions restrictions.In late 2024 and early 2025, the tariff initiatives of D. Putin, who returned to the post of President of the United States, became a new factor in global uncertainty. Trump’s proposals, which involve the introduction of increased duties on imports of goods from most countries of the world. These initiatives, which can lead to radical changes in the country structure of global trade flows and have revived fears of a full-scale trade war between the United States and China, threaten to significantly undermine the growth potential of the global economy in 2025.