Humanitarian ceasefires: myths and realities (database analysis)

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Humanitarian ceasefires: myths and realities (database analysis)
// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2025. No 2 (69). P. 28-53
DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2025-2-28-53

Abstract. This study based on a comparative analysis of statistics from international databases for over 35 years is focused on humanitarian ceasefires as a military–humanitarian format and on how they relate to peace processes worldwide. The article dispels myths about the humanitarian nature of most ceasefires, the conditionality of peace negotiations on humanitarian ceasefires, and the priority association of such ceasefires with peace processes. Humanitarian ceasefires are shown to constitute a clear minority among ceasefire formats. Also, up to 65 percent of humanitarian ceasefires, almost evenly distributed among the world’s main conflict regions, are not linked to any talks other than purely military and humanitarian contacts, i. e. most humanitarian ceasefires are concluded at the stage of an ongoing conflict. It is concluded that (а) humanitarian aid and humanitarian operations are not specific to peace processes; (b) humanitarian aspects are more typical of ceasefires as temporary pauses in active hostilities or a “no peace, no war” format amidst simmering violence in the absence of peace talks; (c) in nine out of ten cases, humanitarian ceasefires are not a condition for the start of peace negotiations and do not immediately precede them.

Keywords: ceasefires, humanitarian ceasefires, armed conflicts, peace processes, databases


About author

Ekaterina Stepanova heads the Peace and Conflict Studies Unit and is a Chief Researcher at the International Politics Department, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences.


For citation:
Stepanova E. Humanitarian ceasefires: myths and realities (database analysis) // Pathways to Peace and Security. 2025. No 2 (69). P. 28-53. https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2025-2-28-53



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