“A friend in need…”: India and the confrontation between Russia and the West

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“A friend in need…”: India and the confrontation between Russia and the West
// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2024. No 2 (67) . P. 126-140
DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2024-2-126-140

Abstract. The article explores the key imperatives that have determined approaches to the crisis in Ukraine and related Russia–West confrontation by groups and forces who influence India’s foreign policy decision-making. The author analyzes the perception of the Ukrainian crisis by Indian society in general and by urban middle class, in particular, as well as by Indian expert community, media, military, economic and political elites. It is noted that the conflict came as a shock for these social groups who had viewed Russia as a friendly, but “fading” power. The lack of information and knowledge about military capacities and plans of Russia and Ukraine led to inflated expectations followed by disappointment. As the crisis escalated and the information deficit was eliminated, gradual change in public perceptions is traced, and the conflict’s relatively insignificant impact on the Indian domestic political agenda is observed. It is concluded that the course of the conflict in Ukraine is of greatest interest to the military and political elites. While the former try to glean military lessons from the armed conflict in Ukraine, the latter have been forced to resort to complex maneuvers in the international arena, in an attempt to sustain India’s balancing act in the face of pressure from its Western partners. The Indian leadership’s refusal to take a passive stance on the Ukrainian crisis in the summer of 2020 is explained by its awareness of the need to counter the challenges that India faces in economic, domestic, and foreign policy spheres, such as a possible food shortage, a slowdown in development programs resulting from decrease in foreign direct investment, a possible decline of Modi’s popularity, and concerns about Russia’s growing dependence on China.

Keywords: Russia, India, special military operation, Narendra Modi, conflict in Ukraine


About author

Alexey Kupriyanov is a Head of Center of the Indo-Pacific Region, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences.


For citation:
Kupriyanov A. “A friend in need…”: India and the confrontation between Russia and the West // Pathways to Peace and Security. 2024. No 2 (67) . P. 126-140. https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2024-2-126-140



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