// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2024. No 1 (66) . P. 134-149
Abstract. The article examines the conflict interaction between Turkey and the United States in the context of the Syrian crisis. It reveals that while Ankara at the early stage of the Syrian events was guided primarily by the ideological and value-based impulses, the United States pursued its national interests trying to extract as many preferences as possible from the situation by all means. This approach has largely shaped the U.S. cooperation with the Kurdish groups in Syria. It is concluded that, despite Turkey’s indirect engagement in the conflict as a U.S. partner at the beginning of the Arab Spring, in the first half of 2020s, Ankara already posed as an independent player in and on Syria. The latter has finally emerged as a separate area of the Turkish foreign policy activity unrelated to the U.S. regional policy. Turkey’s independence which is not accepted by the American side has become an additional factor complicating coordination between the two states on the ground. It is shown that the problem of the U.S. cooperation with the Kurdish formations remains the main factor that raises the level of conflict interaction between Ankara and Washington in and on Syria. Scenario planning theory, with a focus on the “inevitable future” technique, and the SWOT analysis method are used to assess the prospects for transforming the patterns of conflict interaction between Ankara and Washington. On this basis, it is concluded that escalation of tensions between Turkey and the United States in and on Syria is inevitable, with a degree of the severity of the confrontation between the two states as the key variable. An analysis of opportunities and threats for bilateral interaction shows the limitations of a positive outcome and its dependence on shifts in the regional balance of power with the participation of third players.
Keywords: Turkey, United States, Syria, the Kurds, Democratic Union Party (PYD), People’s Protection Units (YPG), oil, terrorist groups, the scenario method, SWOT analysis
Danila Krylov is a Researcher, Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East, Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences (INION), Russian Academy of Sciences.
Alina Sbitneva is a Researcher, Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East, Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences (INION), Russian Academy of Sciences.
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