Conventional arms control in Europe: crisis and prospects for recovery

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Conventional arms control in Europe: crisis and prospects for recovery
// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2023. No 2 (65). P. 169-182
DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-2-169-182

Abstract. The post-Cold War conventional arms control system (CACE), based on the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty), has experienced a series of crises in 2000s early 2020s. The recent escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO merely finalized the process of disintegration of this system, resulting from a range of diverse factors. The CACE crisis was caused by long-term military-political, military-strategic, and military-technical shifts. Despite the complexity of the current military-political relations between Russia and NATO, the authors believe that it is already appropriate to begin searching for ways to restore the CACE regime, which would be optimal in terms of the evolving strategic landscape in the Euro-Atlantic region and would meet the security interests of the parties. The authors conclude that the starting point for creating a new CACE regime could be agreements on medium-range strike systems of various types of basing that do not distinguish between nuclear and conventional systems. Such a solution is achievable, primarily, in the mode of the Russia U.S. bilateral negotiations, which would simplify the task of reaching effective agreements and would also give an impetus for subsequent negotiations on nuclear weapons when the relations between the parties are normalized.

Keywords: European security, precision-guided weapons, CFE Treaty, conventional arms control, intermediate-range missiles


About author

Konstantin Bogdanov is a senior researcher, Section of Military-Political Analysis and Research Projects, Center for International Security, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Irina Kobrinskaya is a head of the Center for Situational Analysis and lead researcher at the Center for Forecasting Studies, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.


For citation:
Bogdanov K., Kobrinskaya I. Conventional arms control in Europe: crisis and prospects for recovery // Pathways to Peace and Security. 2023. No 2 (65). P. 169-182. https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-2-169-182



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2023, No. 2 (65)
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