Prospects for the establishment of nuclear weapon-free zone in Central and Eastern Europe

25

MGIMO-University, Moscow

PIR Center, Moscow

Saint Petersburg State University

Prospects for the establishment of nuclear weapon-free zone in Central and Eastern Europe
// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2022. No 2 (63). P. 234-244
DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-234-244

Abstract. The probability of a new great war in Europe, which was perceived as minimal in the 1990s 2010s, has seriously increased in 2022. Among numerous reasons for this were the nuclear risks associated with the highly ambiguous statements of the Ukrainian leadership, Poland’s desire to acquire American tactical nuclear weapons, and risks of the Russia U.S. nuclear war that increased with the further collapse of the arms control regime. Against this background, the revival of the long-forgotten idea of a nuclear weapon-free zone in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) could play a positive role in resolving this problem. The article raises terminological issues, discusses a potential territorial framework for such a zone, and provides a brief historical account of the issue. Four scenarios of regional developments in the field of nuclear non-proliferation are offered. Two scenarios provide for the creation of a nuclear free zone, one more involves the freezing the current situation, and the last one focuses on threats to non-proliferation regime in Central and Eastern Europe. In the end, conclusions are offered about the potential significance of such a zone for the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, especially in connection with conventional arms control measures in Europe.

Keywords: nuclear weapon-free zone, Central and Eastern Europe, Rapacki Plan, Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, Intermarium, nuclear nonproliferation, nuclear sharing policy, nuclear weapons program


About author

Vladimir Orlov is a Professor at MGIMO University and Director, PIR Center, Moscow.

Alexey Yurk is a Junior Researcher at PIR center, Moscow, and a PhD student, School of International Relations, Saint Petersburg State University.


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Orlov V., Yurk A. Prospects for the establishment of nuclear weapon-free zone in Central and Eastern Europe // Pathways to Peace and Security. 2022. No 2 (63). P. 234-244. https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-234-244



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexes and Databases

  

 

  

Current Issue
2023, No. 2 (65)
  • - INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AT THE CROSSROADS
  • - CONFLICT AND SECURITY ISSUES IN AFRICA
  • - MARITIME SECURITY
  • - WEAPONS AND ARMS CONTROL
  • - PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANIES IN INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT
Submit an Article
Years
2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |