Moscow State Institute of International relations (MGIMO University)
// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2021. No 2(61). P. 57-79
Abstract. The article outlines and discusses the universal mathematical model created by the author and allowing to predict scenarios for post-Soviet secessions and, more broadly, to forecast secession potentials of any complex subnational regional units. The objects of forecasting are de facto states and different kinds of polities with failed statehood, analyzed through the prism of the “parent state – secession – patron state” triangle. The main research method is quantification of secession factors, which enables a researcher to measure the impacts of objective and subjective conditions on the course and results of secessions through the use of specific variables and indicators. As described in mathematical terms, the model has two extremes: “ideal secession” and “ideal anti-secession”.
Keywords: secessions, de facto states, mathematic modeling, post-Soviet space, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Ukraine, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Transnistria, Donetsk People’s Republic, Lugansk People’s Republic
Alexey Tokarev is a Senior Researcher of the Institute for International Studies of the MGIMO University.
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