Long-term forecast of trends in terrorism

172
Long-term forecast of trends in terrorism
// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2016. No 1(50). P. 39-52



Abstract

The article summarizes the main trends in global terrorism (concerning scale, intensity, regional distribution, dominant ideological-motivational types, financing and information and communication support of terrorist activity) and discusses their potential evolution in the next 20 years and the main factors that could affect it. It also looks into the present correlation of long-term trends in terrorism and in armed conflicts and places the evolution of terrorism in the broader context of all one-sided violence against civilians. Finally, it explores the potential for unexpected risks and new threats related to terrorism. The author emphasizes the need to go beyond protection against expected threats to improve the overall resilience of the system under threat as a long-term strategy to reduce terrorism risks. 


Keywords

terrorism, threat assessment, risk forecasting, transnationalization, intensity, lethality, regional distribution, extremist ideologies, organizational forms, information and communication effect 


Registered in system SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Stepanova E. Long-term forecast of trends in terrorism. Pathways to Peace and Security, 2016, No 1(50), pp. 39-52



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

Current Issue
2020, No. 1(58)
  • - IN FOCUS: EAST ASIA
  • - EAST ASIAN APPROACHES TO PEACEBUILDING
  • - MARITIME CONFLICTS AND SECURITY IN EAST ASIA AND EURASIA
  • - SECURITY POLICIES OF EAST ASIAN STATES
  • - CONFLICTS AND SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
  • - BOOK REVIEWS
View This Issue (2020, No. 1(58))
Submit an Article
Years
2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |