42Received 26.01.2026. Revised 23.03.2026. Accepted 28.04.2026.
Abstract. The article examines the first year of the second Trump Administration’s Middle East policy. Its relevance stems from the Middle East’s enduring global significance, particularly for the United States. The first Trump administration pursued a strategy of gradual withdrawal from the region alongside de-ideologization of its approach, while seeking to retain influence over Middle Eastern dynamics. President Biden largely inherited this framework. Consequently, it becomes essential to determine whether the new administration continues this policy and to identify the distinctive features of its formulation and implementation. Regarding the Gaza war, President Trump assumed direct control of the settlement process, actively promoting his “20‑point plan.” Key characteristics of his strategy include, on one hand, readiness to exert necessary pressure on Israel and, on the other, ambiguity in formulations concerning Palestinian statehood, coupled with challenges in executing intermediate tasks such as Hamas disarmament and its removal from power. Damage inflicted on Iran by Israeli-American strikes in June 2025 and in February–April 2026 remains reversible. Moreover, Operation “Epic Fury” seems to has made situation in region worst for the U.S. and its allies than before. In Syria, Washington prioritizes the country’s swift reunification, reconstruction, and reintegration into the regional security architecture. Relations with Persian Gulf monarchies emphasize economic cooperation, investment attraction, and curbing Chinese influence, though realization of the president’s ambitious plans remains uncertain. In addition, U.S. security guarantees may seem less valuable after Iranian strikes, but it is unlikely that Gulf countries will renounce their reliance on them. U.S. intervention in the Yemeni conflict yielded a tactical victory but no strategic gains. The analysis concludes that U.S. Middle East policy over the next three years will be shaped by two opposing tendencies: President Trump’s drive to pacify the region and transform it into a security space, contrasted with persistent fundamental regional contradictions that cannot be resolved externally within a single presidential term. Besides, his power politics will likely strengthen the regional instability and may in spite of president’s will once again rise the value of the Middle East region for the United States.
Keywords: U.S. Middle East policy, Donald Trump, Israel-Hamas war, Israel, Iran, Syria, Gulf countries, Yemen
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