64Received 25.06.2025. Revised 22.09.2025. Accepted 21.10.2025.
Abstract. The article is devoted to the study of the process of shaping the U.S. policy towards the People’s Republic of China. In the context of the evolution of Washington’s Chinese strategy and deepening crisis of globalization, the approaches of leading political and ideological groups within the American ruling elite to the problem of the necessary response to China’s “global challenge” are analyzed. It is noted that there is a convergence of positions of the leading groups on key issues of the U.S.-China relations. First of all, most share the view that the United States should oppose China because it is a rival (competitor, opponent, enemy); only progressives believe that Beijing should become a partner. At the same time, it is recognized that China is superior to America in some areas (for example, in the military) at this stage. Therefore, it is impossible to provoke a conflict with it, and not only a “hot”, but even a “cold” one would be a path to escalation and American defeat. Overthrowing the Chinese Communist Party regime also seems impossible. Accordingly, the majority of political and expert groups proposes a policy of conflict-free “managed coexistence”, which will buy time to change the balance of power in favor of the United States, and only after that it will be possible to begin a full-fledged “containment”. The majority also shares the opinion that presidents D. Trump and J. Biden had previously generally followed the right line with regard to China. They showed “strategic patience,” did not provoke Beijing, and ensured sustainable coexistence. At the same time, Biden placed more emphasis on the foreign relations (anti-Chinese alliances), and Trump – on the domestic economy (reindustrialization). It is concluded that, in general, there is a bipartisan consensus in the United States regarding the Chinese strategy, and Trump will have to follow it.
Keywords: USA, China, globalization, fragmentation, J. Biden, D. Trump, strategy of “engagement”, “managed coexistence”, decoupling
REFERENCES
1. Nye J. The evolution of America’s China strategy. Asialink, 03.11.2022. Available at: https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/diplomacy/article/evolution-america-china-strategy/ (accessed 20.06.2025).
2. Zoellick R. Whither China? From Membership to Responsibility. NCUSCR, 21.09.2005. Available at: https://www.ncuscr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/migration_Zoellick_remarks_notes06_winter_spring.pdf (accessed 20.06.2025).
3. Cooper Z. Five Critiques of the Trump Administration’s China Strategy. War on the Rocks, 29.06.2020. Available at: https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/five-critiques-of-the-trump-administrations-china-strategy/ (accessed 20.06.2025).
4. Campbell K., Sullivan J. Competition without Catastrophe. Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/competition-with-china-catastrophe-sullivan-campbell (accessed 20.06.2025).
5. Brands H. Every President Has a Foreign Policy. Trump Has Five. Bloomberg, 03.02.2025. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-03/trump-s-foreign-policy-team-contains-5-camps (accessed 20.06.2025).
6. Burack B. Bring Back Trump’s China Policy. Heritage Foundation, 04.09.2024. Available at: https://www.heritage.org/china/commentary/bring-back-trumps-china-policy (accessed 20.06.2025).
7. Cha V. Beyond Taiwan and De-risking: Allied Strategies for Addressing the China Challenge. Studocu, 06.12.2023. Available at: https://www.studocu.com/row/document/wuhan-university/ordinary-differential-equation/beyond-taiwan-and-de-risking-allied-strategies-for-addressing-the-china-challenge/79538611 (accessed 20.06.2025).
8. Kennedy S. Beyond De-Risking: Focus on Systemic Success. Blanchette J., McElwee L., eds. Defining Success Does the United States Need an “End State” for Its China Policy? Washington DC, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), October 2024, pp. 49-56. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-10/241007_Blanchette_Defining_Success.pdf?VersionId=yR31S.Kz.s59S_SF3LMkvhSDBiYBg99n (accessed 20.06.2025).
9. Kennedy S. U.S.-China Relations in 2024: Managing Competition without Conflict. India Strategic Study, 06.01.2024. Available at: https://www.strategicstudyindia.com/2024/01/us-china-relations-in-2024-managing.html (accessed 20.06.2025).
10. Brooks S., Vagle B. The Real China Trump Card. The Hawk’s Case Against Decoupling. Foreign Affairs, March/April 2025. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/real-china-trump-card-brooks-vagle?s=ESPAZ005F6&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=fa_edit&utm_campaign=pre_release_brooks_vagle_prospects_b&utm_content=20250220&utm_term=ESPAZ005F6# (accessed 20.06.2025).
11. Brands H. History’s Revenge: America Faces the New Eurasian Threat. American Enterprise Institute, 10.02.2025. Available at: https://www.aei.org/op-eds/historys-revenge-america-faces-the-new-eurasian-threat/ (accessed 20.06.2025).
12. Brands H. Biden’s Record on China Leaves Big Problems for His Successor. Bloomberg, 03.09.2024. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-02/biden-s-record-on-china-leaves-big-problems-for-his-successor?embedded-checkout=true (accessed 20.06.2025).
13. Rinehart W. The Specter of a Trade War. American Enterprise Institute, 10.02.2025. Available at: https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/the-specter-of-a-trade-war/ (accessed 20.06.2025).
14. Cooper Z. The Necessity of a Phased China Strategy. Blanchette J., McElwee L., eds. Defining Success Does the United States Need an “End State” for Its China Policy? Washington DC, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), October 2024, pp. 10-14. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-10/241007_Blanchette_Defining_Success.pdf?VersionId=yR31S.Kz.s59S_SF3LMkvhSDBiYBg99n (accessed 20.06.2025).
15. Hass R. China’s Response to American-led “Containment and Suppression”. China Leadership Monitor, 29.08.2023. Available at: https://www.prcleader.org/post/china-s-response-to-american-led-containment-and-suppression (accessed 20.06.2025).
16. Sisson M. Victory is not an Option. Blanchette J., McElwee L., eds. Defining Success Does the United States Need an “End State” for Its China Policy? Washington, DC, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), October 2024, pp. 108-112. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-10/241007_Blanchette_Defining_Success.pdf?VersionId=yR31S.Kz.s59S_SF3LMkvhSDBiYBg99n (accessed 20.06.2025).
17. Czin J. Abetting competition, restraining Beijing. Brookings, 06.01.2025. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/abetting-competition-restraining-beijing-recommendations-for-diplomacy-toward-china/ (accessed 20.06.2025).
18. Doshi R. No exit from Rivalry: How Steady States Can Guide Strategy. Blanchette J., McElwee L., eds. Defining Success Does the United States Need an “End State” for Its China Policy? Washington, DC, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), October 2024, pp. 15-20. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-10/241007_Blanchette_Defining_Success.pdf?VersionId=yR31S.Kz.s59S_SF3LMkvhSDBiYBg99n (accessed 20.06.2025).
19. Blackwill R., Fontaine R. No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy. CFR, 08.12.2024. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/report/no-limits-china-russia-relationship-and-us-foreign-policy (accessed 20.06.2025).
20. Economy E. China and the United States: Action Versus Reaction. Blanchette J., McElwee L., eds. Defining Success Does the United States Need an “End State” for Its China Policy? Washington, DC, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), October 2024, pp. 21-26. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-10/241007_Blanchette_Defining_Success.pdf?VersionId=yR31S.Kz.s59S_SF3LMkvhSDBiYBg99n (accessed 20.06.2025).
21. Paul E. The dangerous idealism of competing with China. Responsible Statecraft, 04.06.2020. Available at: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/06/04/the-dangerous-idealism-of-competing-with-china/ (accessed 20.06.2025).
22. Campbell K., Doshi R. Underestimating China: Why America Needs a New Strategy. Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/underestimating-china?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=Trade%20Wars%20Are%20Easy%20to%20Lose&utm_content=20250411&utm_term=EWZZZ003ZX (accessed 20.06.2025).
23. Kurlantzick J. Trump’s initial moves will benefit China. Japan Times, 11.02.2025. Available at: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/02/11/world/trumps-initial-moves-will-benefit-china/ (accessed 20.06.2025).
24. Sanders B. Washington’s Dangerous New Consensus on China. Foreign Affairs, 17.06.2021. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-17/washingtons-dangerous-new-consensus-china?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw_daily_soc&utm_source=twitter_posts (accessed 20.06.2025).
25. Werner J. A Program for Progressive China Policy. Quincy Brief, 2024, no. 62. Available at: https://quincyinst.org/research/a-program-for-progressive-china-policy/# (accessed 20.06.2025).
26. Bradner E., John A. Key takeaways from CNN’s town hall with Sen. Bernie Sanders. CNN, 09.04.2025. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/09/politics/cnn-bernie-sanders-town-hall-takeaways (accessed 20.06.2025).
SOURCES
1. The TPP would let America, not China, lead the way on global trade. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 03.05.2016. Available at: https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2016/may/cross-post-president-obama-tpp-would (accessed 20.06.2025).
2. Mandate for Leadership. The Conservative Promise. Project 2025. Heritage Foundation, 2024. Available at: https://static.heritage.org/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf (accessed 20.06.2025).
3. Elizabeth Warren has withdrawn her candidacy. CFR, 23.09.2020. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/election2020/candidate-tracker/elizabeth-warren (accessed 20.06.2025).



No comments