The Return of the Taliban to Power as a Factor in the Transformation of Threats and Challenges to Regional Security

21
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2025-69-2-65-75
EDN: XDIINB
R. Makhmudov, rmaxmudov@uwed.uz
University of World Economy and Diplomacy, 54, Ave. Mustakillik, Tashkent, 100007, Republic of Uzbekistan.
 

Received 20.01.2024. Revised 02.10.2024. Accepted 29.11.2024.

Abstract. The article addresses the issue of the emergence of new challenges and threats to the regional security system in Central and South Asia following the return to power of the Taliban movement in August 2021. Among them is the Taliban’s active policy in constructing the Qoshtepa canal related to the Amu Darya in northern Afghanistan without coordination with the Central Asian countries, posing a threat to the water, environmental, and food security of extensive areas in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The complicating factor is the deterioration of relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan after 2021, rooted in contradictions surrounding the Kabul-non-recognized Durand Line, which divides the territory inhabited by many Pashtun tribes and clans on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border. An irritant in Afghan-Pakistani relations has been the increased terrorist activities of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) following the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which has resulted in numerous casualties among Pakistani security forces and civilians. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring TTP militants on its territory, a claim refuted by the latter. In the long term, a challenge, primarily for a secular Central Asia, may be the Taliban’s antimodernist policy capable of influencing the growing post-secular trends in countries located north to the Amu Darya. 

Keywords: Taliban, Central Asia, Qoshtepa canal, Helmand River, Durand Line, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, Islamist fundamentalism


REFERENCES

1. Sinno A. Afghans stave off starvation in the face of economic sanctions. Relief Web, 05.09.2023. Available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghans-stave-starvation-face-economic-sanctions (accessed 12.01.2024).

2. Gupta K. Afghan farmers struggle to adapt to Taliban’s opium ban by Kanika Gupta. Nikkei, 24.07.2023. Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Agriculture/Afghan-farmers-struggle-to-adapt-to-Taliban-s-opium-ban (accessed 12.01.2024).

3. Mayar M.A., Shapour R. The long winding river: Unravelling the water dispute between Afghanistan and Iran. Afghanistan Analysts Network, 20.11.2023. Available at: https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/Helmand-Water-FINAL.pdf (accessed 12.01.2024).

4. Riedel B. Pakistan, Taliban and the Afghan Quagmire by Bruce Riedel. Brookings, 24.08.2013. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistan-taliban-and-the-afghan-quagmire/ (accessed 14.01.2024).

5. Laletin Yu.P. Afghan-Pakistani relations and the peace jirga. Asia and Africa today, 2008, no. 5, pp. 60-64. (In Russ.) Available at: https://mgimo.ru/library/publications/138813/ (accessed 14.01.2024).

6. Sarwar A.R. Ashraf Ghani and the Pashtun Dilemma by Ali Reza Sarwar. The Diplomat, 18.01.2015. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/ashraf-ghani-and-the-pashtun-dilemma/ (accessed 14.01.2024).

7. Mohmand R.S. The Durand Line: A British legacy that fuels new tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Arab News, 07.07.2023. Available at: https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2333766 (accessed 14.01.2024).

8. Saeyd A., Hamming T. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan after the Taliban’s Afghanistan Takeover. Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, 2023, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 1-12. Available at: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan-after-the-talibans-afghanistan-takeover/ (accessed 14.01.2024).

9. Shah S.S.H., Mahmood A., Kamran M. Resurrection of Tehrik‐e‐Taliban Pakistan Amidst Afghan Regime’s Indifference: Threats to Intersectional Security Strands in the Region. Social Inclusion, 2024, vol. 12, art. 8598, pp. 1-20. Available at: https://doi.org/10.17645/si.8598

10. Hussain A. Taliban’s ties with Pakistan fraying amid mounting security concerns. Al-Jazeera,

17.08.2023. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/17/talibans-ties-with-pakistan-fraying-amid-mounting-security-concerns (accessed 14.01.2024).

11. Mehsud R. Pakistani Taliban reject amnesty offer unless Islamic law imposed by Rehmat Mehsud. Arab News, 19.09.2021. Available at: https://www.arabnews.com/node/1931331/world (accessed 14.01.2024).

12. Aamir A. Pakistan intends to deport 1.7 million Afghans. Relief Web, 09.10.2023. Available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-intends-deport-17-million-afghans (accessed 26.11.2024).

13. Debre I. Counting the costs of America’s 20‑year war in Afghanistan. Associated Press News, 30.04.2021. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-afghanistan-middle-east-business-5e850e5149ea0a3907cac2f282878dd5 (accessed 26.11.2024).

14. Rezai H. The Taliban Rule and the Radicalisation of Education in Afghanistan. Global Campus of Human Rights, 24.11.2022. Available at: https://www.gchumanrights.org/preparedness/the-taliban-rule-and-the-radicalisation-of-education-in-afghanistan/ (accessed 15.01.2024).

15. Chaturvedi A. Taliban’s new education minister says PhD, Master’s degrees ‘not valuable’. Hindustan Times, 08.09.2021. Available at: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/talibans-new-education-minister-says-phd-master-s-degree-not-valuable-101631085275474.html (accessed 15.01.2024).

16. Mohammadi G.H. Jihadi Seminaries Under the Taliban: A Looming Threat. The Diplomat, 05.01.2024. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2024/01/jihadi-seminaries-under-the-taliban-a-looming-threat/ (accessed 26.11.2024).

17. Khorasani A.M. Taliban and the fight against Western thought. 8 AM Media, 31.05.2022. (In Dari) Available at: https://8am.media/the-taliban-and-the-fight-against-western-thought/ (accessed 17.01.2024).

18. Boyarkina O.A. Afghanistan in the politics of Central Asia on the river Amu Darya. International Relations, 2017, no. 4, pp. 29-35. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.7256/2454‑0641.2017.4.19492


SOURCES

1. There was no sadness: will the construction of the Qoshtepa canal be a disaster for Uzbekistan? Kun.uz, 10.06.2023. (In Russ.) Available at: https://kun.uz/ru/news/2023/06/10/ne-bylo-pechali-stanet-li-stroitelstvo-kanala-kushtepa-katastrofoy-dlya-uzbekistana (accessed 12.01.2024).

2. In Afghanistan, construction of the first section of the Qoshtepa Canal has been completed. Gazeta.uz, 12.10.2023. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2023/10/12/qoshtepa-canal/ (accessed 12.01.2024).

3. Uzbekistan and Afghanistan discussed the Qoshtepa canal, trade, transport and women’s rights. Gazeta.uz, 23.03.2023. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2023/03/23/afghanistan/ (accessed 12.01.2024).

4. Mirziyoyev: The Afghan Qoshtepa canal can radically change the water balance in Central Asia. Sputnik News, 15.09.2023. (In Russ.) Available at: https://uz.sputniknews.ru/20230915/mirziyoyev-afganistan-kanal-koshtepa-sammit-38994333.html (accessed 12.01.2024).

5. Taliban commission first section of major canal that could threaten water sufficiency of Central Asia neighbours. IntelliNews, 12.10.2023. Available at: https://www.intellinews.com/taliban-commission-first-section-of-major-canal-that-could-threaten-water-sufficiency-of-central-asia-neighbours-296728/ (accessed 12.01.2024).

6. Turkmenistan. Food and Agriculture Organization. Available at: https://www.fao.org/4/W6240E/w6240e18.htm#:~:text=The%20water%20loss%20from%20the,salinization%20of%20the%20surrounding%20land (accessed 26.11.2024).

7. The President declared 2024 a period of transition to an emergency mode of work to save water in Uzbekistan. Gazeta.uz, 30.11.2023. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2023/11/30/water/ (accessed 12.01.2024).

8. The Afghan-Iranian Hilmand-River Water Treaty. International Water Law, 1973. Available at: https://www.internationalwaterlaw.org/documents/regionaldocs/1973_Helmand_River_Water_Treaty-Afghanistan-Iran.pdf (accessed 12.01.2024).

9. Iran and Afghanistan Clash over Water Rights. United States Institute of Peace, 30.05.2023. Available at: https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/30/iran-and-afghanistan-clash-over-water-rights (accessed 12.01.2024).

10. Satellite images have refuted Afghan claims about the amount of water behind the Kajaki and Kamal Khan dams. Pars Today, 23.05.2023. (In Russ.) Available at: https://parstoday.ir/ru/news/west_asia-i182472-Спутниковые_снимки_опровергли_заявление_Афганистана_о_количестве_воды_за_плотинами_Каджаки_и_Камал_Хан (accessed 12.01.2024).

11. Amir-Abdullahian: The Taliban did not allow the Iranian technical delegation to measure the Helmand water level. Pars Today, 19.05.2023. (In Russ.) Available at: https://parstoday.ir/ru/news/iran-i182218-Амир_Абдуллахиян_Талибы_не_позволили_технической_делегации_Ирана_измерить_уровень_воды_Гильменд (accessed 12.01.2024).

12. Islamic Emirate: We Have Not Allowed More Fencing on Durand Line. Tolo News, 18.02.2022. Available at: https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-176733 (accessed 14.01.2024).

13. The Durand line dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan has remained a contentious issue for over a century. Satyaagrah, 19.06.2023. Available at: https://satyaagrah.com/global/global-politics/2937%E2%80%91durand (accessed 14.01.2024).

14. Pakistan PM says expulsion of Afghans a response to Taliban non-cooperation. Reuters, 08.11.2023. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-pm-says-expulsion-afghans-response-taliban-non-cooperation-2023-11-08/ (accessed 14.01.2024).

15. COAS meets US Defence Secretary in Washington. The Express Tribune, 14.12.2023. Available at: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2450026/coas-meets-us-defence-secretary-in-washington (accessed 14.12.2023).

16. Afghanistan, Education. USAID/Afghanistan, 2017–2020. Available at: https://2017-2020.usaid.gov/afghanistan/education (accessed 01.10.2024).

17. Ghani sees threat to Afghanistan’s education system. Pajhwok, 05.05.2021. Available at: https://pajhwok.com/2021/05/05/ghani-sees-threat-to-afghanistans-education-system/ (accessed 15.01.2024).

18. Taliban minister defends closing universities to women as global backlash grows. The Guardian, 23.12.2022. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/23/taliban-minister-defends-closing-universities-to-women-as-global-backlash-grows (accessed 17.01.2024).

19. ‘Men and women are not equal’: Taliban education minister. Times of India, 01.10.2023. Available at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/men-and-women-are-not-equal-taliban-education-minister/articleshow/104090692.cms?from=mdr (accessed 17.01.2024).


For citation:
Makhmudov R. The Return of the Taliban to Power as a Factor in the Transformation of Threats and Challenges to Regional Security . World Eсonomy and International Relations, 2025, vol. 69, no. 2, pp. 65-75. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2025-69-2-65-75 EDN: XDIINB



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2025, vol. 69, No. 3
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Interference Debate within the UN: Record of Systematic Study 
  • Problems and Ways of Russia’s Access to Non-CIS Countries Product Markets
  • The Integration in Central Asia: Restrictions and Perspectives
Announcement

Dear authors of the journal!

Please note that the author's copies of the issues in which your texts are published are kept in the editorial office for no more than one year. After this period expires, the editorial office has the right to dispose of unclaimed copies at its own discretion.

 

Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.