29Received 27.08.2025. Revised 08.09.2025. Accepted 01.10.2025.
Acknowledgments. The article was prepared within the project «The “Clean Water” project as the most important component of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the countries of the Global South: socio-economic and technological dimensions» supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement no. 075-15-2024-546).
Abstract. Using the concepts of water intensity of production and international trade in virtual water developed in the economic literature, the authors show that in the countries of Central Asia, with the exception to a certain extent of Kazakhstan, a highly water-intensive model of economic growth has developed. The record-breaking by world standards water intensity of economic growth in the subregion is explained by the massive use of fresh natural water to serve the needs of agriculture, which is also among the world leaders in water intensity. Despite the pronounced trend towards a decrease in the water intensity of the economy in the period 2000–2021, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan remain world leaders by fresh water consumption per unit of gross domestic product and value added in agriculture. Uzbekistan is a striking example of a country whose specialization in global exports was formed irrespective of the availability of such a resource as water. In 2022, Uzbekistan exported in virtual form a fifth of fresh water taken from natural sources. In absolute terms Uzbekistan by export of its own virtual water ranked sixth in the world, behind only China, India, the United States, Iran and Pakistan. The water stress indicator in Uzbekistan exceeds 100, which shows that the economy and population are consuming part of the fresh water that should be used to maintain the stability of natural water systems. It is only possible to maintain and, even more so, develop such a wasteful model of water consumption if the price water for consumers remains very low, which in turn presupposes an increase in the withdrawal of fresh natural water. If the present economic growth model is maintained, the negative consequences of water scarcity and water stress in Central Asia will only increase in the future. Water conservation can make a significant contribution to solving the problems of water scarcity, what involves modernization through large-scale investments of water transportation, distribution, accumulation and storage systems, as well as the use of water-saving technologies and practices in agriculture. A positive effect on water scarcity can be achieved by the wide use of industrial water cleaning technologies. However, both of these solutions are palliatives. Fresh natural water should receive a relevant price. In the short term, a relevant price for water will strengthen the policy of reducing water intensity. In the medium and long term, the price will set the right guidelines for investment and sectoral policies aimed at forming a model of sustainable economic growth.
Keywords: economic growth, water imprint, water intensity of GDP, export of virtual water, input-output tables, Central Asia
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