28Received 27.06.2025. Revised 14.07.2025. Accepted 25.08.2025.
Acknowledgment. This article was prepared with the support of a grant from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation for major scientific projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development no. 075-15-2024-551 “Global and Regional Centers of Power in the Emerging World Order”.
Abstract. The evolving great power rivalry has serious military implications for the Asia-Pacific region. The growing U.S.–China tensions, which started out as economic and technological, are increasingly taking on a military and technical dimension. The guidelines of the U.S. strategic planning documents for a number of years have emphasized the central idea of strengthening deterrence against China, whose growing military power is perceived in the United States as a direct threat against the background of intense competition in economic and technological spheres. The complicated “hub-and-spokes” system of American alliances and extended deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region is fueling a sense of threat in the U.S. due to the perception of danger from China’s active steps. The PRC, in turn, is engaged in a large-scale build-up of its nuclear and conventional missile capabilities, which may be exaggerated in Washington, but are nevertheless used in setting American military development priorities and funding relevant programs. The United States is increasingly expanding military-technical cooperation with its allies, including the transfer of sensitive military technologies. The allies themselves are starting comprehensive re-militarization, especially in the field of long-range strike weapons, as well as increasing U.S. military presence, including advanced American long-range strike weapons and missile defense systems. All this together forms the conditions for the launch of an arms race spiral in the region due to lack of predictability, transparency and confidence-building measures, and might lead to dangerous security dilemmas, regarding Russia in particular. The paper shows the mechanism of possible development of the arms race, which, in the authors’ opinion, is associated with the predominant role of medium- and intermediate-range missile systems and missile defense systems as well, which is explained by the peculiarities of the extensive theater of operations and sparse basing system. This mechanism has been in place in the region for at least two decades, which allows us to stress its stability as a leading destabilizing factor in U.S. – China strategic relations.
Keywords: Asia-Pacific Region, arms race, missile defense, medium-range missiles, deterrence of China, U.S. strategy
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