28Received 04.03.2025. Revised 26.05.2025. Accepted 30.07.2025.
Abstract. The paper develops and empirically tests a composite index based solely on foreign direct investment (FDI) data to classify countries according to their central, semi-peripheral, or peripheral position in the global economic system. The research object is the set of national economies viewed through the lens of their participation in worldwide FDI flows, while the research subject is the theoretical and methodological framework enabling the identification of each country’s export-investment activity and strategic potential. The hypothesis is that outward FDI plays a decisive role in reshaping global capital accumulation, thereby distinguishing states that consistently allocate and control capital abroad (centers) from those focusing on attracting investments (peripheries). Grounded in the structural logic of world-system theory and using macroeconomic indicators of capital flows, the study proposes a numerical threshold for assigning countries to distinct strata. The time frame from 1990 to 2023 covers key phases of global economic cycles (including the crises of 1997–1998, 2008–2009, and the COVID‑19 recession), allowing the authors to trace how the proposed index reflects shifts in foreign investment patterns among the United States, China, Russia, and a broader set of countries. The findings indicate that the new FDI-based classification method captures critical structural changes overlooked by traditional GDP-centered models, including the impact of geopolitical tensions and technological competition. The article also outlines practical ways to integrate the proposed methodology into strategic forecasting and planning, while acknowledging its limitations (e. g., potential distortions from offshore jurisdictions) and suggesting future improvements (such as incorporating Net International Investment Position or capital stock metrics). Overall, the study offers a quantitative framework grounded in world-system theory for assessing countries’ positions in global capital flows and forecasting their medium- to long-term trajectories.
Keywords: world-system analysis, foreign direct investment, FDI, capital export, center–semiperiphery–periphery, global economic system, strategic forecasting, Russia, China, USA
REFERENCES
1. Shirov A.A., ed. Transformation of the World Economy: Opportunities and Risks for Russia. Moscow, Dinamik Print, 2024. 252 p. (In Russ.)
2. Drobot E.V. Classification of Countries in Macroeconomic Analysis: Methodological Approaches and Empirical Application. St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 2018, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 147-165. (In Russ.)
3. Adamaytis I.M., Barmina E.A. To the Question of Classification of Countries by Level Their Socio-economic Development. Vector Economy, 2022, no. 5, pp. 84-97. (In Russ.)
4. Lukashin Yu.P., Rakhlina L.I. Long-Term Forecasting of the World Economy. World Economy and International Relations, 2014, no. 12, pp. 5-14. (In Russ.) Available at: http://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2014-12-5-14
5. Lukashin Yu.P., Rakhlina L.I. On World Development Indicators. MIRBIS Bulletin, 2021, no. 2 (26), pp. 6-25. (In Russ.) Available at: http://doi.org/10.25634/MIRBIS.2021.2.1
6. Komolov O.O. Deglobalization in the Context of Global Economic Stagnation. Economic Revival of Russia, 2018, no. 4 (58), pp. 50-63. (In Russ.)
7. Komolov O.O. Unequivalent Exchange as a Factor of Influence on Economic Development of Russia. The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2024, no. 4, pp. 47-64. (In Russ.) Available at: http://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2024_4_47_64
8. Caballero R.J., Farhi E., Gourinchas P.-O. An Equilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances” and Low Interest Rates. American Economic Review, 2008, vol. 98, no. 1, pp. 358-393. Available at: http://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.1.358
9. Benetrix A., Pallan H., Panizza U. The Elusive Link between FDI and Economic Growth. Policy Research Working Paper 10422. World Bank, 2023. 50 p. Available at: http://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10422
10. Tatuzov V.Yu. Dynamics of FDI: Analysis and Forecasting. Scientific Works îf the Free Economic Society of Russia, 2023, no. 240 (2), pp. 66-86. (In Russ.) Available at: http://doi.org/10.38197/2072-2060-2023-240-2-66-86
11. Tatuzov V.Yu. Use and Regulation of Foreign Direct Investments: New Paradigm. Lomonosov Economics Journal, 2023, vol. 58, no. 5, pp. 25-42. (In Russ.) Available at: http://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-58-5-2
12. Prebisch R. The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. New York, United Nations, 1950. 59 p.
13. Frank A.G. The Underdevelopment of Development. Monthly Review, 1966, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 17-31.
14. Dos Santos T. The Structure of Dependence. American Economic Review, 1970, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 231-236.
15. Wallerstein I. World-Systems Analysis: An Introduction. Durham, Duke University Press, 2004. 128 p.
16. Amin S. Unequal Development: An Essay on the Social Formations of Peripheral Capitalism. New York, Monthly Review Press, 1976. 440 p.
17. Arrighi G. The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power, and the Origins of Our Times. London, Verso, 1994. 432 p.
SOURCES
1. World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Divergences. Washington, IMF, 2023. 194 p. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlook-october-2023 (accessed 20.02.2025).
2. The World Bank Atlas Method – Methodology. Washington, World Bank. Available at: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/378832 (accessed 12.02.2025).
3. The Global Competitiveness Report 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery. Geneva, World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-global-competitiveness-report-2020 (accessed 12.02.2025).
4. UNCTAD. FDI Flows and Stock Database. Available at: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/dataviewer/US.FdiFlowsStock (accessed 03.03.2025).
No comments