40Received 10.08.2024. Revised 09.09.2024. Accepted 05.11.2024.
Abstract. The paper considers long- and short-term trends in global robotics and changes in its production and export volumes. A comparison with world GDP shows that industrial robot installations in all counties of the world have grown at a faster rate than world GDP from 2012 onwards. Still, the trend of installations also shows significant volatility and fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As shown in the article, the other trend is a very low of global exports of industrial robots over these years. Its value amounted to only US$7 billion in 2023, which is 0.03% of the total world exports. We determine structural shifts in major markets and regions around the world as well as in consumer industries of robots. The case study was focused on China’s industrial robotics industry. Since 2013, PRC has been the undisputed world’s largest market for industrial robots. According to author’s estimates, in 2022 China was ahead of the United States and Japan in industrial robot installations by 250 and 240 thousand units accordingly. In terms of yearly robot installations, China was almost 6 times ahead of second-place Japan and more than 7 times ahead of third-place USA in 2022. It may be concluded that, despite the relatively high growth rates in comparison with world GDP, as of now, robotics does not have characteristics and qualities of innovative breakthrough technology to become a real driver of the global economy than a computer was 30–40 years ago. Robotics remains a narrow functional and, at the same time, diversified technology for use in the economy and society.
Keywords: robotics, industrial robots, service robots, robot exports, structural shifts, China
REFERENCES
1. Arents J., Greitans M. Smart Industrial Robot Control Trends, Challenges and Opportunities within Manufacturing. Applied Sciences, 2022, no. 12 (2). Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020937
2. Ghodsi M., Reiter O., Stehrer R., Stollinger R. Robotization, Employment, and Industrial Growth Intertwined Across Global Value Chains. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 12-2019. Vienna, UNIDO, 2019. V, 42 p. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340004015_Robotization_employment_and_industrial_growth_Intertwined_across_global_value_chains (accessed 30.07.2024).
3. De Backer K., DeStefano T., Menon C., Suh J.R. Industrial Robotics and the Global Organization of Production. OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, no. 2018/03. Paris, OECD Publishing, 2018. 43 p. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1787/dd98ff58-en
4. von Braun J., Archer M.S., Reichberg G.M., Sánchez Sorondo M., eds. Robotics, AI, and Humanity. Springer, 2021. 269 ð. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54173-6_1
5. Yan Ing Lili, Grossman G.M., eds. Robots and AI: A New Economic Era. London, Routledge, 2022. 370 p. Available at: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003275534
6. Eder A., Koller W., Mahlberg B. The Contribution of Industrial Robots to Labor Productivity Growth and Economic Convergence: A Production Frontier Approach. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2024, vol. 61, pp. 157-181. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11123-023-00707-x
7. Klenert D., Fernández-Macías E., Antón J.-I. Do Robots Really Destroy Jobs? Evidence from Europe. Economic and Industrial Democracy, 2023, vol. 44, iss. 1, pp. 280-316. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0143831X211068891
8. Kromann L., Malchow-Møller N., Skaksen J.R., Sørensen A. Automation and Productivity: A Cross-country, Cross-industry Comparison. Industrial and Corporate Change, 2020, vol. 29, iss. 2, pp. 265-287. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtz039
9. Akimov A. Robotics and Development. World Eñonomy and International Relations, 2017, vol. 61, no. 12, pp. 74-81. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-12-74-81
10. Atkinson R.D. Robots and International Economic Development. ITIF Policy Report, 25.01.2021. 10 ð. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3875581 (accessed 30.07.2024).
11. Carbonero F., Ernst E., Weber E. Robots Worldwide: The Impact of Automation on Employment and Trade. IAB-Discussion Paper 7-2020. Nürnberg, Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, 2020, no. 7. 34 p. Available at: https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2020/dp0720.pdf (accessed 30.07.2024).
12. Jurkat A., Klump R., Schneider F. Tracking the Rise of Robots: The IFR Database. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2022, vol. 242, no. 5–6, pp. 669-689. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2021-0059
13. Müller C. World Robotics 2023 – Industrial Robots. IFR, 2024. 16 ð. Available at: https://ifr.org/wr-industrial-robots/ (accessed 30.07.2024).
14. Müller C., Werner K., Birgit G., Kevin B., eds. World Robotics 2023 – Service Robots. IFR, 2014. 12 ð. Available at: https://ifr.org/wr-service-robots/ (accessed 30.07.2024).
15. Casanova R. Industrial Robot Market Trends in the United States. U.S. International Trade Commission, 2019. 2 ð. Available at: https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/industrial_robots_in_the_united_states.pdf (accessed 30.07.2024).
16. Evjemo L.D., Gjerstad T., Grøtli E.I., Sziebig G. Trends in Smart Manufacturing: Role of Humans and Industrial Robots in Smart Factories. Current Robotics Reports, 2020, vol. 1, pp. 35-41. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43154-020-00006-5
17. Ajewole F., Kelkar A., Moore D., Shao E., Thirtha M. Unlocking the Industrial Potential of Robotics and Automation. McKinsey, 2023. 6 ð.
18. Sanneman L., Fourie C., Shah J. The State of Industrial Robotics: Emerging Technologies, Challenges, and Key Research Directions. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 2020. 32 ð.
19. Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 2020, vol. 128, no. 6, pp. 2188-2244. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1086/705716
20. Dauth W., Findeisen S., Südekum J., Wößner N. German Robots – the Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers. IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2017. Nürnberg, Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, 2017. 62 p. Available at: https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2017/dp3017.pdf (accessed 30.07.2024).
21. Timmer M., Dietzenbacher E., Los B., Stehrer R., de Vries G. An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input-Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production. Review of International Economics, 2015, vol. 23, iss. 3, pp. 575-605. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12178
22. Cârstea V. Crises in the Automotive Industry. Romanian Economic Business Review, 2023, vol. 18, no. 1, p. 34-40. Available at: http://www.rebe.rau.ro/RePEc/rau/journl/SP23/REBE-SP23-A3.pdf (accessed 30.07.2024).
SOURCES
1. ISO 8373:2021. Robotics – Vocabulary. Geneva, International Organization for Standardization (ISO), 2021.
2. GOST Ð 60.0.0.4-2023/ISO 8373:2021. Robots and Robotic Devices. Terms and Definitions. 01.09.2023. (In Russ.)
3. Top 5 Robot Trends 2024: New Technology Simplifies Automation. IFR, 15.02.2024. Available at: https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/top-5-robot-trends-2024 (accessed 30.07.2024).
4. Key Messages: The Impact of Robots on Productivity, Employment and Jobs. IFR, 2017. 1 ð. Available at: https://ifr.org/img/office/Robots_and_Jobs_Key_Messages.pdf (accessed 30.07.2024).
5. U.S. Companies Invest Heavily in Robots – IFR Preliminary Results. IFR, 30.04.2024. Available at: https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/u.s-companies-invest-heavily-in-robots (accessed 30.07.2024).
6. Top 14 Robotics Companies in the World. IMARC Group, 2024. Available at: https://www.imarcgroup.com/top-robotics-companies (accessed 30.07.2024).
7. Trade Map. Available at: https://www.trademap.org/ (accessed 30.07.2024).
8. Eurostat. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat (accessed 30.07.2024).
9. Staff Shortage Boosts Service Robots – Sales Up 48%. IFR, 12.10.2023. Available at: https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/staff-shortage-boosts-service-robots-sales-up-48 (accessed 30.07.2024).
No comments