Southern Flank of the U.S. Military Deployment in Eastern Europe

39
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2024-68-7-25-34
EDN: RMIFTO
A. Krivopalov, krivopalov@centero.ru
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.

Received 12.02.2024. Revised 05.03.2024. Accepted 23.04.2024.

Abstract. This paper deals with the issue of the growing military-strategic partnership between Romania and the United States, and addresses its effects on the post-Soviet countries. After 2022, the U.S. has become increasingly interested in the Danubian theater of operations, deploying a sizeable contingent of American ground troops in Romania. Making use of its partnership with the Americans, and inspired by the successful example of Poland, the Romanian government started to modernize its national armed forces after years of technological stagnation. One can reasonably assume that the consequences of this policy could affect Moldova and Transnistria, shifting the regional balance of power in a direction unfavorable to Russia. At the present stage, however, the U.S. – authorized infusion of relatively modern Western weapons into the Romanian army is primarily aimed at offsetting the technological gap, which had formed during the Cold War years and intensified in the 1990s?2000s. The events of the 2022 Ukrainian crisis presented Bucharest with a chance to strengthen its position within the United States’ strategic framework and, as a result, dramatically expanded the scope of its military and technical partnership with Washington. The Romanian leadership seems eager to capitalize on the growing American interest in the rapid and lasting takeover of the Danube theater of operations. It cannot be ruled out that this trend will affect Moldova, which maintains close political ties with Romania. The American base of operations has not shifted to Eastern Europe so far. The rear logistics command of the U. S. European Command remains in the same location it was originally established during the Cold War. The forces deployed as part of the Operation Atlantic Resolve have only slightly advanced closer to the conflict zone. That said, the experience of the Cold War and, more specifically, the deployment of American forces to provide cover for West Germany and South Korea suggests that, in order to effectively deter a would-be adversary, the rear base of operations must be located inside the confines of the potential combat theater, not outside of it. The current deployment of U.S. troops, therefore, appears to be an act of politics rather than strategy. In the eyes of Eastern European leaders, even a marginal, purely symbolic United States’ military presence acts as a psychologically significant form of assurance against a hypothetical escalation vis-a-vis Moscow. At the same time, the American deployment in Eastern Europe resembles a “sanitary cordon” rather than an “iron curtain” in the sense that it is motivated more by political considerations than by strategic concerns. The fact that the recent U.S. military preparations are purely demonstrative in nature, as opposed to establishing a full-scale logistics command in a potential combat theater, means that Russia can continue to respond with similar symbolic gestures and warning signals.

Keywords: strategy, Romania, foreign policy, USA, defense planning, Russia, armed forces, Moldova, Transnistria


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For citation:
Krivopalov A. Southern Flank of the U.S. Military Deployment in Eastern Europe. World Eñonomy and International Relations, 2024, vol. 68, no. 7, pp. 25-34. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2024-68-7-25-34 EDN: RMIFTO



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