Received 10.06.2024. Revised 20.06.2024. Accepted 01.08.2024.
Abstract. The article examines the priorities of China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific, examines the current trends of the US-Chinese strategic confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region, expressed, among other things, in the formation of new international institutions reflecting primarily the economic rivalry of regional leaders. The key features of the policy of the Chinese leadership led by Xi Jinping in the Pacific are highlighted. The course of the J. Biden administration's Pacific diplomacy is compared in detail with the Indo-Pacifist policies pursued by previous American governments in the twenty-first century. The official regional strategies of China, the United States and American allies are compared, and the multivariance of U.S. partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries is assessed. The balance of positive consequences and risks in the relations between the United States and China with the countries of the region is analyzed, as well as the readiness of the East Asian states to follow in the wake of American and Chinese diplomacy. In this context, the potential and prospects of the subjectivity of the countries of the region in the context of the American-Chinese rivalry, their possible role as a stabilizer of political and economic processes in the Indo-Pacific are investigated.
Keywords: Indo-Pacific Region, ASEAN, UK, EU, India, China, USA, Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Quad, AUKUS, IPEF, regional security and economy
REFERENCES
1. Manning R.A. Swimming in Uncharted Waters: Ukraine and US Asia-Pacific Policó. Global Asia, June 2022. Available at: https://www.globalasia.org/v17no2/cover/swimming-in-uncharted-waters-ukraine-and-us-asia-pacific-policy_robert-a-manning (accessed 04.05.2023).
2. Izotov D.A. Economic integration of Russia with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region: problems and prospects. Minakir P.A., ed. Khabarovsk, IEI FEB RAS, 2020. 368 p. (In Russ.)
3. The world’s economic order is breaking down. The Economist, 09.05.2024. Available at: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/05/09/the-worlds-economic-order-is-breaking-down (accessed 14.05.2024).
4. Mikheev V.V., Lukonin S.A. China on the eve of the 20th CPC congress (‘the core of the party’, ‘new bipolarity’, the economy of deceleration). World Economy and International Relations, 2022, vol. 66, no. 6, pp. 5-16. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-6-5-16
5. Fedorovskiy A. Leadership crisis and stagnation of megaprojects in the Asia-Pacific region: consequences for Russia. Contours of global transformations, 2019, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 6-25. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-1-6-25
6. Bubnova N.I. Military-political course of the United States in the second decade of the 21st century. IMEMO. Moscow, Political Encyclopedia, 2021. 394 p. (In Russ.)
7. Joe Biden has big plans for his first presidential trip to Asia. The Economist, 20.05.2022. Available at: https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/05/20/joe-biden-has-big-plans-for-his-first-presidential-trip-to-asia (accessed 21.06.2023).
8. Song Jisun. Comparison of U.S., Japan and EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategies, with a Focus on Development Cooperation. IFANS Perspectives, 11.03.2022. 12 p. Available at: https://www.ifans.go.kr/knda/ifans/eng/act/ActivityView.do;jsessionid=-bPZJENCbOdfA-tAJLcq8ZMn.public22?sn=13966&ctgrySe=04&boardSe=pbl&clCode=P19&koreanEngSe=ENG (accessed 21.06.2023).
9. Elms D. Biden’s Trade Policy: Modern American Industrial Strategy. Asia Trade Centre. Singapore, 05.05.2023. Available at: https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/talking-trade-blog/biden-s-trade-policy-modern-american-industrial-strategy/ (accessed 08.05.2023).
10. Why Joe Biden will host Japan and South Korea’s leaders at Camp David. The Economist, 10.08.2023. Available at: https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/08/10/why-joe-biden-will-host-japan-and-south-koreas-leaders-at-camp-david (accessed 16.08.2023).
11. Choi Si-young. Trilateral summit opens new chapter in security, economic partnership. The Korea Herald, 20.08.2023. Available at: https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230820000132 (accessed 16.09.2023).
12. S. Korea explained to China results of trilateral summit through diplomatic channels: Seoul FM. The Korea Times, 21.08.2023. Available at: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/08/120_357533.html (accessed 16.09.2023).
13. Fedorovskiy A.N. Regional institutions in the Indo-Pacific space in the context of the rivalry of global leaders. Mikheev V.V., Lomanov A.V., Shvydko V.G., eds. The new reality of the Indo-Pacific space. Moscow, IMEMO, 2023, pp. 7-30. DOI: 10.20542/978-5-9535-0567-3
14. Thi Hang Banh, Xuyao Zhang, Chi Zhang, An Le. Three Years into CPTPP: An Overview of Trade in Goods and Services. ACI Research paper, 28.07.2023. 32 p. Available at: https://aciperspectives.com/2023/07/19/three-years-in-the-cptpp-understanding-the-impact-on-trade-in-goods-and-services/ (accessed 16.09.2023).
15. Pesek W. Why Japan and South Korea are rediscovering China. Asia Times, 29.05.2024. Available at: https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/why-japan-and-south-korea-are-rediscovering-china/ (accessed 29.03.2024).
16. Tensions mount between China and the Philippines. The Economist, 18.04.2024. Available at: https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/04/18/tensions-mount-between-china-and-the-philippines (accessed 13.05.2024).
17. Chinese firms are expanding in South-East Asia. The Economist, 25.04.2024. Available at: https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/04/25/chinese-firms-are-expanding-in-south-east-asia (accessed 13.05.2024).
18. Shay Wester. Balancing Act: Assessing China’s Growing Economic Influence in ASEAN. Asia Society, 08.11.2023. Available at: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/balancing-act-assessing-chinas-growing-economic-influence-asean (accessed 31.05.2024).
19. Rogozhina N.G., Rogozhin A.A. Economic presence of China in Southeast Asia as a condition for promoting ‘soft power’ policy. World Economy and International Relations, 2019, vol. 63, no. 4, pp. 40-49. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-4-40-49
20. Poling G.B., Natalegawa A. Assessing U.S. and Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia. CSIS, 07.08.2023. Available at: https://www.realclearworld.com/2023/08/09/assessing_us_and_chinese_influence_in_southeast_asia_971792.html (accessed 31.05.2024).
21. Fedorovskiy A. The U.S. in the Indo-Pacific: Adjusting Engagement with Allies and Partners. Baranovsky V.G., Solovyev E.G., eds. Year of the Planet: Yearbook. Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Yearbook 2023. Moscow, Idea-Press, 2024, ðp. 98-106. Available at: https://www.imemo.ru/files/File/ru/publ/2024/YearPlanet-2023.pdf (accessed 31.05.2024).
22. Huong Le Thu. How to Survive a Great Power Competition. Southeast Asia’s Precarious Balancing Act. Foreign Affairs, 18.04.2023. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/beijing-survive-great-power-competition (accessed 28.03.2024).
SOURCES
1. Xi Jinping. Staying Committed to and Jointly Promoting Development to Bringing Asia-Pacific Cooperation to New Heights. Written Speech at the APEC CEO Summit. Xinhua, 17.11.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://english.news.cn/20221118/04bb042d9cff4103a26583b62db88a3f/c.html (accessed 29.03.2024)
2. Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States. The White House, Washington, February 2022. Available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20220211202105/ (accessed 30.03.2024).
3. New Plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”: Policy Speech by PM Kishida. JapanGov, 19.05.2023. Available at: https://www.japan.go.jp/kizuna/2023/05/new_plan_for_free_and_open_indo-pacific.html (accessed 20.05.2024).
4. EU Indo-Pacific Strategy. Global Gateway. Available at: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/2023/EU%20Indo-pacific.pdf (accessed 16.05.2024).
5. Global Britain in a Competitive Age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy. GOV.UK, 16.03.2021. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-britain-in-a-competitive-age-the-integrated-review-of-security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy (accessed 20.052024).
6. Substantial Conclusion of Negotiations on Landmark IPEF Supply Chain Agreement. US Department of Commerce, Office of Public Affairs, 27.05.2023. Available at: https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2023/05/substantial-conclusion-negotiations-landmark-ipef-supply-chain (accessed 12.10.2023).
7. Trade map. Trade statistics for international business development. ITC. Available at: https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx (accessed 30.06.2024).
No comments