23Received 02.05.2024. Revised 10.07.2024. Accepted 05.08.2024.
Abstract. The paper analyzes the dynamics of Russia’s structural economic relations with countries of the “unfriendly” and “friendly” (including “neutral”) spectrum in 1995–2020 according to data from intercountry input-output tables prepared by the OECD in 2023. The analysis focuses purely on “input” connections that involve the supply of imported intermediate production goods and final investment goods necessary for the production process at Russian enterprises. It is shown that import intensity of Russian final goods was not very high across industries (the remarkable exclusion is production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers), though input-output tables do not allow us to understand the quality and criticality of imports of industrial goods. In addition, the non-stop growth in the share of “friendly” countries is absolutely obvious. However, despite the steady decline in imports (by value added) from “unfriendly” countries in relation to imports from “friendly” countries, by 2021 the first category continued to remain prevalent in many cases, especially in machine building. The steady increase in the share of added value of “friendly” countries in the output of Russian products is apparently the result of such world processes as globalization, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and other large developing countries, as well as the deindustrialization of Western economies. In the case of investment (capital) goods, for which Russia’s share was initially quite small, it seems that not only the global factors discussed above were at work, but also some targeted efforts of government at import substitution. It seems obvious that Russia currently faces a problem of restructuring its external economic connections and must adapt to changing global processes, maintaining a constructive approach to participation in the cross-country division of the production process, and taking into account geopolitical realities, develop new models of cooperation and integration.
Keywords: global value chains, “unfriendly” and “friendly” countries, intercountry OECD input-output tables, import substitution, significant imports, technological sovereignty, full import intensity of domestic final products, BRICS, EAEU, globalization and regionalization
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