Multilateral Strategic Dialogue: Dilemmas and Obstacles

45
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-7-5-21
EDN: YKBIQK
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.

Received 31.03.2023. Revised 07.04.2023. Accepted 21.04.2023.

Abstract. In the foreign policy section of the President V. Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly on February 21, 2023, the most conspicuous was the new subject – the suspension of Russia’s participation in the New START Treaty. Among the reasons provided as justification of this decision was the absence of limitations on the nuclear forces of the two U.S. NATO allies – the Great Britain and France. Most probably, the main reason for the decision of the Russian leadership on the New START was political in nature – countering the policy of the U.S. and its allies, aimed at the defeat of Russia in the military conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the suspension of the New START is prone with the break of the treaty-based strategic relationship of the two nuclear superpowers and the collapse of the whole regime of nuclear arms control. Still, provided improvement of the international politics: peaceful settlement of the military conflict in Ukraine, moving of the West and Russia away from the overwhelming confrontation – the resumption of the strategic limitation dialogue between the U.S. and Russia is possible. However, the subject of involving the Great Britain and France in arms control will stay on the agenda. Thirty years ago, the sum of their forces was about 4% of the strategic forces of each of the two superpowers, whereas now it is close to 35% due to the reductions of the U.S. and Russian strategic arms since 1991. Resolving this problem would require innovative application of legal norms and the use of the experience and precedents elaborated during half a century of strategic negotiations.

Keywords: nuclear deterrence, strategic concepts, disarming strike, launch-on-warning strike, arms control negotiations, the New START Treaty, reconstitution potential, third states’ nuclear forces, sea-based missiles, the Interim SALT I Agreement


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For citation:
Arbatov A. Multilateral Strategic Dialogue: Dilemmas and Obstacles. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2023, vol. 67, no. 7, pp. 5-21. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-7-5-21 EDN: YKBIQK



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