The Uncanny Valley of Sustainability: Will World Economy Keep Growing?

99
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-5-5-15
EDN: YHMZNM
MGIMO University, 76, Vernadskogo Prosp., Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation;
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.

Received 25.01.2023. Revised 15.02.2023. Accepted 01.03.2023.

Abstract. The world economy is on the threshold of a serious transformation, which is likely to be accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth, but also by a likely increase in the cost of living. The article shows the emergence of a new concept of social development, antagonistic to the idea of economic growth. It examines the shift in emphasis in the political programmes of the parties most popular with the mass electorate, which are also increasingly defending the declining rate of economic growth. The change in values proves to be an additional factor responsible for the slowdown in economic growth in the long run. The role of the new compromise concepts of sustainable development, ESG, turns out to be negative for further progress. They encourage political parties and statesmen to abandon the idea of maintaining economic growth as a factor of social progress. The stagnationist philosophy is confronted with the preservation of economic institutions that cannot easily separate themselves from the objective desire for profit, which requires a search for compromises. The way out of a possible resource and investment stalemate in a slowing economy could be to expand the sale of new investment products designed for emotional investors. In the long run, this threatens to inflate the sustainable finance bubble. The slide of the global economy into the “unfathomable valley” of stagnant growth and financial bubbles becomes a very likely scenario in the medium term.

Keywords: sustainable development, economic growth, economy, stagnation, ESG, financial market, energy transition, narrative investment, financial bubbles


REFERENCES

1. Mori M., MacDorman K.F., Kageki N. The Uncanny Valley. IEEE Robotics & Automation, 2012, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 98-100. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1109/MRA.2012.2192811 

2. Grossman G.M., Krueger A.B. Economic Growth and the Environment. NBER Working Paper no. 4634, February 1994. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3386/w4634 

3. Summers L. We Need to Bring Climate Idealism down to Earth. Financial Times, 30.04.2007.

4. Arrow K., Bolin B., Costanza R., Dasgupta P., Folke C., Holling C.S., Jansson B.-O., Levin S., Maler K.-G., Perrings Ch., Pimentel D. Economic Growth, Carrying Capacity, and the Environment. Science, 1995, vol. 268, no. 5210, pp. 520-521. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2886637 (accessed 09.01.2023).

5. Romer P.M. Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 1986, vol. 94, no. 5, pp. 1002-1037. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1086/261420

6. Nordhaus W. Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE Model, 1992-2017. Climatic Change, 2018, no. 148, pp. 623-640. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y

7. Nordhaus W. Climate Change: The Ultimate Challenge for Economics. American Economic Review, 2019, vol. 109, no. 6, pp. 1991-2014. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.109.6.1991

8. Hansen A.H. Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth. The American Economic Review, 1939, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 1-15. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1806983 (accessed 08.02.2023).

9. Krugman P. The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. New York, London, W.W. Norton & Company, 2009. 193 p.

10. Gordon R.J. Is US Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds. NBER Working Paper 18315, August 2012. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3386/w18315

11. Forrester J.W. World Dynamics. Cambridge Mass, Wright-Allen Press, Inc., 1973. 147 p.

12. Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L., Randers J., Behrens III W.W. The Limits of Growth. A Report for the Club of Rome’s project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York, Universe Books, 1972. 205 p.

13. Banerjee A., Duflo E. Good Economics for Hard Times. New York, Public Affairs, 2019. 414 p.

14. Stiglitz E., Sen A., Fitoussi J.-P. Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, 2009. 291 p. Available at: https://www.insee.fr/en/information/2662494 (accessed 08.02.2023).

15. Ehrlich P.R. The Population Bomb. New York, Ballantine Books, 1988. 226 p.

16. Smil V. We Must Leave Growth Behind. The New York Magazine. Intelligencer, 24.09.2019. Available at: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/vaclav-smil-on-the-need-to-abandon-growth.html (accessed 08.02.2023).

17. Georgescu-Regen N. Energy and Economic Myths. Southern Economic Journal, 1975, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 347-381. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2307/1056148

18. Jackson T. Prosperity without Growth. Economics for a Finite Planet. London, Earthscan, 2009. 264 p.

19. Kallis G., Kerschner Ch., Martinez-Alier J. The Economics of Degrowth. Ecological Economics, 2012, vol. 84, pp. 172180. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.08.017

20. Alexander S. Policies for a Post-Growth Economy. MSSI Issue Paper no. 6, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne, 2016. 14 p.

21. Du Pisani J.A. Sustainable Development – Historical Roots of the Concept. Environmental Science, 2006, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 83-96. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/15693430600688831

22. Freeman R.E. Strategic Management. A Stakeholder Approach. Boston. Pitman, 1984. 277 p.

23. Carroll A.B. The Pyramid of Corporate Social Responsibility: Toward the Moral Management of Organizational Stakeholders. Business Horizons, 1991, vol. 34, iss. 4, pp. 39-48. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/0007-6813(91)90005-G

24. Carroll A.B. The Four Faces of Corporate Citizenship. Business and Society Review, 1998, vol. 100-101, iss. 1, pp. 1-7. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/0045-3609.00008

25. Matten D., Crane A., Chapple W. Behind the Mask: Revealing the True Face of Corporate Citizenship. Journal of Business Ethics, 2003, no. 45, pp. 109-120. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024128730308

26. Schwab K. Davos Manifesto 2020: The Universal Purpose of a Company in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum, 02.12.2019. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/davos-manifesto-2020-the-universal-purpose-of-a-company-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/ (accessed 08.02.2023).

27. Guillemette Y., Turner D. The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060. OECD, 12.07.2018. 51 p. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1787/b4f4e03e-en


SOURCES

1. Economic Forum: Policy Responses to Crises. Panel discussion. Washington, International Monetary Fund, 08.11.2013. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=2821294542001 (accessed 08.02.2023).

2. Google Ngram Viewer. Available at: https://books.google.com/ngrams/ (accessed 08.02.2023).

3. Maddison Project Database. Groningen, University of Groningen. Available at: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020 (accessed 08.02.2023).

4. The World Bank Data. GDP Growth (Annual%). Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG (accessed 08.02.2023).

5. OECD.Stat. Economic Outlook no. 109. October 2021. Long-term Baseline Projections. Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EO109_LTB (accessed 08.02.2023).

6. The Manifesto Project. Available at: https://manifesto-project.wzb.eu/ (accessed 08.02.2023).

7. 2022: The Year in Figures and Charts. No Far-Right Wave in 2022. Politico, 30.12.2022. Available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/2022-data-by-the-numbers-figures-charts/ (accessed 08.02.2023).

8. Net Zero by 2050. A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Paris, IEA, May 2021. Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050 (accessed 08.02.2023).

9. Outlook for Energy. Energy Demand: Three Drivers. ExxonMobil, 2022. Available at: https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/energy-and-innovation/outlook-for-energy/energy-demand (accessed 08.02.2023).

10. Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022. Insights. Global Macro Trends, 2022, vol. 12.4. 56 p. Available at: https://www.kkr.com/sites/default/files/Walk_Dont_Run-Mid_Year_Update_2022_20220616.pdf (accessed 08.02.2023).

11. Investment Needs of 1.5°C World. BloombergNEF, 07.07.2022. Available at: https://about.bnef.com/blog/investment-needs-of-a-1-5c-world/ (accessed 08.02.2023).

12. Google Trends. Available at: https://trends.google.com/trends/?geo=US (accessed 08.02.2023).

13. Yahoo Finance. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com (accessed 08.02.2023).


For citation:
Milovidov V. The Uncanny Valley of Sustainability: Will World Economy Keep Growing?. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2023, vol. 67, no. 5, pp. 5-15. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-5-5-15 EDN: YHMZNM



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 5
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Are There Any Ways to Break Through the Korean Nuclear Impasse?
  • Contemporary U.S. Taiwan Policy: Balancing on the Edge
  • The Gulf Monarchies’ Vision of the Global Order Transformations and the Russian Place in It
  • At Post-Soviet Space
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.