Exit Strategy: Genesis of the Concept Through the World Order Transformation

38
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-4-53-63
EDN: ITEDDC
Independent Researcher

Received 10.06.2022. Revised 22.08.2022. Accepted 06.12.2022.

Abstract. The transformation of the world order affects the stability of the international security system and forces nation states to intensify their efforts to develop mechanisms for preventing challenges and threats both during the transformation itself and after its completion. At the same time, political-military conflicts remain an integral element of any world order. And, paradoxically, they are the main threat to the world order. The article endeavors to analyze the features of the system of strategic planning and management of military operations under the administrations of R. Reagan and G. Bush. The choice of the period is due to, among other things, a significant similarity between the main challenges and threats relevant to the U.S. – USSR relations in that time and the U.S. – Russia relations today, which makes it possible to apply the comparative historical method of research. The purpose of the study is to identify, within the selected period, such systemic characteristics and factors, the use of which would be possible in modeling modern political and military conflicts, and would also contribute to the resolution of some of them. The particular attention is paid to the doctrine of C. Weinberger, the U. S. Secretary of Defense. The analysis of use of the American armed forces in 1981–1992 confirms the effectiveness of the Weinberger Doctrine. Moreover, with the assistance of C. Powell, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Weinberger Doctrine became the basis of a conceptual approach to politicalmilitary conflicts as an “exit strategy”. Today, in the context of the immutable nature of a political-military conflict, the Weinberger Doctrine and “exit strategy” deserve special attention of the scientific community and can become a solid foundation for forecasting, planning and mechanisms for resolving modern crisis situations, armed conflicts and wars.

Keywords: international security, strategic planning, war, conflict management, termination and resolution of political and military conflicts, the Weinberger Doctrine, “exit strategy”


REFERENCES

1. Kissinger H. World Order. New York, Penguin Press, 2014. 432 p.

2. Bogaturov A.D. Political Analysis in International Relations. Moscow, Aspekt Press, 2018. 208 p. (In Russ.)

3. Kokoshin A.A., Veselov V.A., Liss A.V., Fisenko I.S. Modern warfare and art of war: sociological and political issues. Moscow, LENAND, 2015. 160 p. (In Russ.)

4. Dobbins J., Miller L., Pezard S., Chivvis C., Taylor J.E., Crane K., Trenkov-Wermuth C., Mengistu T. Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: Local Factors in Nation-Building. Santa Monica, California, RAND Corporation, 2013. 348 p.

5. Lavrov S.V. On Law, Rights and Rules. Russia in Global Affairs, 2021, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 228-240. Available at: https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2021-19-3-228-240 

6. Kokoshin A.A. Strategic Stability in a Deteriorating International Environment. Polis. Political Studies, 2018, no. 4, pp. 7-21. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2018.04.02 

7. Nemfakos C., Blickstein I., McCarthy A., Sollinger J. The Perfect Storm: the Goldwater-Nichols Act and Its Effect on Navy Acquisition. Santa Monica, California, RAND Corporation, 2010. 78 p.

8. Weinberger C. The Uses of Military Power. Remarks to the National Press Club. Washington, D.C., November 1984. 8 p.

9. Gilpin M.D. Exit Strategy: The New Dimension in Operational Planning. Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, U. S. Army War College, 1997. 37 p.

10. Betts K. Pick Your Battles: Ending America’s Era of Permanent War. Foreign Affairs, 2014, vol. 93, no. 6, pp. 15-24. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2014-10-20/pick-your-battles (accessed 01.08.2021).

11. Wyne A. The Risks of Permanent War. The RAND Corporation Blog, 2018. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/09/the-risks-of-permanent-war.html (accessed 01.08.2021).

12. Shultz R.H. In the aftermath of war: US support for reconstruction and nation-building in Panama following Just Cause. Maxwell AFB, Alabama, Air University Press, 1993. 92 p.

13. Fishel J.T. The Fog of Peace: Planning and Executing the Restoration of Panama. Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, U. S. Army War College, 1992. 111 p.

14. Embrey J. Operation Just Cause: Concepts for Shaping Future Rapid Decisive Operations. Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, U. S. Army War College, 2002. 53 p.

15. Yergin D. The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power. New York, Free Press, 2008. 928 p.

16. Strednansky S.E. Balancing the Trinity: The Fine Art of Conflict Termination. Maxwell AFB, Alabama, Air University Press, 1996. 51 p.

17. Clark S.A. Exit Strategy: The Nexis of Policy and Strategy. Cambridge, Massachusetts, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 2006. 49 p.

18. Sun Tzu. The Art of War. Transl. from Old Chinese by N. Conrad. Moscow, AST, 2019. 192 p. (In Russ.)


SOURCES

1. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Department of Peace and Conflict Research of the Uppsala University. Available at: https://ucdp.uu.se/ (accessed 01.12.2021).

2. Editor’s Introduction. Armed Conflict Survey, 2020. vol. 6, iss. 1, pp. 5-8. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761604 

3. Memorandum from the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon. Washington, 18.09.1971. Office of the Historian. Available at: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v07/d257 (accessed 01.08.2021).

4. Radio Address to the Nation on Central America. 16.02.1985. Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. Available at: https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-central-america (accessed 01.08.2021).

5. Remarks by the President at Ceremony with University of St. George’s Medical Students. The White House, 24.10.1984, pp. 34-35. Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. Available at: https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/public/2021-06/40-322-209378400-R04-061-2021.pdf (accessed 01.08.2021).

6. American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics. Congressional Research Service, 29.07.2020. Available at: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf (accessed 01.08.2021).


For citation:
Tretyakov I. Exit Strategy: Genesis of the Concept Through the World Order Transformation. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2023, vol. 67, no. 4, pp. 53-63. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-4-53-63 EDN: ITEDDC



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 5
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Are There Any Ways to Break Through the Korean Nuclear Impasse?
  • Contemporary U.S. Taiwan Policy: Balancing on the Edge
  • The Gulf Monarchies’ Vision of the Global Order Transformations and the Russian Place in It
  • At Post-Soviet Space
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.