Prospects of Internationalisation of Russian Rouble in Modern Geopolitical Circumstances

68
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-4-64-74
EDN: VOLHGA
A. Polivach, apolivach@imemo.ru
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.

Received 17.01.2023. Revised 30.01.2023. Accepted 06.02.2023.

Abstract. This article analyses possibility of expanding an international usage of Russian currency in the circumstances of unprecedented sanctions, which were imposed with the purpose to break Russia’s external trade relations and to isolate this country from the global financial system. Author comes to conclusion that dominance of the non-cash money in the international transactions has resulted in the full dependence of all modern currencies on specially created settlement systems. Nowadays currencies can circulate internationally only within such systems. Therefore any national currency is exposed to potential restrictions by the country, which issues dominant global currency (i.e. the US Dollar). This fact makes it very difficult to expand internationalisation of the Rouble by traditional methods. In the modern circumstances the key prerequisite of such expansion is existence of the Rouble settlement and payment systems, which can operate independently of the foreign ones. Such systems were created well before 2022 and technically can facilitate transactions with the Rouble worldwide. However, the problem is that potential foreign counterparts are very cautious to work with any Russian systems due to a risk of the secondary sanctions by the USA. Also widely publicised the Russian government requirement that European importers must pay for Russian gas in Roubles did not help to widen internationalization of Russian currency, as this was Rouble payment in name only, but not in truth. To solve this problem it is suggested to use combined methods: i.e. to extend independent Russian settlement & payment infrastructure worldwide through formal and informal agreements; to broaden the usage of non-cash money and quasimoney; to issue financial instruments, which can circulate worldwide, but outside the settlement infrastructure, which is controlled by the western countries.

Keywords: Russia, internationalisation of Rouble, central bank bonds, gold


REFERENCES

1. Bacchetta Ph., van Wincoop E. A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade. ECB Working Paper no. 177, 2002. Available at: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp177.pdf (accessed 15.12.2022).

2. Cohen B.H. Currency Choice in International Bond Issuance. BIS Quarterly Review, June, 2005, pp. 53-66. Available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0506e.pdf (accessed 24.12.2022).

3. Goldberg L.S., Tille C. Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade. NBER Working Paper no. 11127. Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w11127 (accessed 25.12.2022).

4. Polivach A. Digital Rouble and Prospects of Russian Currency’s Internationalisation. World Economy and International Relations, 2022, vol. 66, no. 6, pp. 35-43. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-6-35-43 

5. Polivach A. Five Years Anniversary since Renminbi Was Included in the SDR Basket: Results and Prospects. World Economy and International Relations, 2021, vol. 65, no. 6, pp. 59-70. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-59-70 

6. Obukhova E. Without SWIFT. Expert, December 19–25, 2022, no. 51, pp. 58-60. (In Russ.)

7. Weiss C. Geopolitics and the US Dollar’s Future as a Reserve Currency. International Finance Discussion Papers 1359. Washington, Federal Reserve System, October 2022. Available at: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2022.1359 


SOURCES

1. Currency Composition of Settlements for Supply of Goods and Services by Foreign Trade Contracts. Moscow, The Bank of Russia. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/cur_str.xlsx (accessed 09.01.2023).

2. Authorities Plan to Increase the Share of Rouble in Settlements from 20 to 40 per cent by 2025. Vedomosti, 13.09.2022. (In Russ.)

3. RMB Trackers. SWIFT. Available at: https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/rmb-tracker-document-centre?tl=en (accessed 10.01.2023).

4. International Reserve Assets and Liquidity of the Republic of Belarus in Foreign Exchange on 01.07.2022. Minsk, National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, 2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.nbrb.by/statistics/sstandard/report.asp (accessed 30.12.2022).

5. International Reserve Assets and Liquidity in Foreign Exchange. Astana, The National Bank of Kazakhstan. (In Russ.) Available at: https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/rezervy-v-inostrannoy-valyute (accessed 30.12.2022).

6. Strengthening the International Role of the Euro. Brussels, European Commission, 2019. Available at: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/international-role-euro_en (accessed 20.12.2022).

7. Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets in 2022. Basel, Bank for International Settlements. Available at: https://www.bis.org/stats_triennial_surveys/index.htm?r=1 (accessed 12.01.2023).

8. China and Persian Gulf Countries Will Trade Gas and Oil for Renminbi. Anadolu Ajansi, 14.12.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://inosmi.ru/20221214/dollar-258845678.html?in=t (accessed 12.01.2023).

9. Regional Economy: Comments by Regional Offices, 2022, no. 14, 46 p. Moscow, The Bank of Russia, 08.09.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.cbr.ru/collection/collection/file/42305/report_08092022.pdf (accessed 10.12.2022).

10. Key Developments of the Financial Market of the Russian Federation for 2022 and the Period of 2023 and 2024. Moscow, The Bank of Russia, 24.12.2021. (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.cbr.ru/content/document/file/131935/onrfr_2021-12-24.pdf (accessed 25.12.2022).

11. The Strategy of Development of the National Payments System for 2021–2023. Moscow, The Bank of Russia, 14.04.2021. (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.cbr.ru/content/document/file/120210/strategy_nps_2021-2023.pdf (accessed 25.12.2022).

12. Russian Analogue of SWIFT Has Increased the Number of Foreign Participants till 38. Vedomosti, 09.12.2021. (In Russ.)

13. The Number of Countries Participating in a Russian Analogue of SWIFT Will Increase to 18. Vedomosti, 28.11.2022. (In Russ.)

14. Traffic in a Russian Analogue of SWIFT Has Grown by a Quarter. Prime, 15.11.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://1prime.ru/banks/20221115/838828029.html (accessed 18.12.2022).

15. About Company AO NSPK. MIR Payment System. (In Russ.) Available at: https://mironline.ru/nspk/ (accessed 08.01.2023).

16. The USA Said about a Risk of Sanctions for Foreign Banks of MIR Bankcards. RBC, 15.09.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.rbc.ru/finances/15/09/2022/632345e99a794705897a385b (accessed 18.12.2022).

17. Can MIR Bankcard Be Used for Payment at AliExpress in 2023. AliExpress. (In Russ.) Available at: https://alisale.by/karta-mir-aliekspress/ (accessed 10.01.2023).

18. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 31.03.2022 no. 172 “About Special Order of Settlements by Foreign Buyers their Obligations against Russian Suppliers of Natural Gas”. Website of the President of Russia. (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/news/68094 (accessed 18.12.2022).

19. Head of States of SCO Have Approved a Road Map of Increasing the Share of National Currencies in Settlements. RIA Novosti, 16.09.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://ria.ru/20220916/shos-1817281423.html (accessed 15.12.2022).

20. The Central Bank Will Promote Usage of the Digital Rouble in Trans-border Settlements. Interfax, 08.09.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.interfax.ru/business/861179 (accessed 23.12.2022).

21. The Digital Rouble. Bank of Russia. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.cbr.ru/fintech/dr/ (accessed 25.01.2022).

22. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 08.08.2022 no. 529 “About Temporary Order of Fulfilment of Obligations on Agreements of Bank Accounts (Deposits) Nominated in Foreign Currency and Obligations on Bonds Issued by Foreign Organisations”. Website of the President of Russia. (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/48228 (accessed 12.01.2023).

23. The Russian Federation Government Resolution dated 26.12.2022 no. 2433 “About Approval of Rules of Settlements in Cash Money between Residents and Non-residents”. The Government of Russian Federation. (In Russ.) Available at: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202212270036 (accessed 12.01.2023).

24. International Settlements in Circumstances of Sanctions: Status and Prospects. Moscow, VEB Institute, May 2022. (In Russ.) Available at: http://inveb-docs.ru/attachments/article/838/платежи_состояние%20и~.pdf (accessed 10.12.2022).


For citation:
Polivach A. Prospects of Internationalisation of Russian Rouble in Modern Geopolitical Circumstances. World Eсonomy and International Relations, 2023, vol. 67, no. 4, pp. 64-74. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-4-64-74 EDN: VOLHGA



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2025, vol. 69, No. 4
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Entrenchment of Neo-Protectionism in Global Economy of 21st Century 
  • Institutional Dynamics of Fiscal Integration in the European Union
  • Factors of Latin American Countries’ Interest in BRICS
  • “China: Bitter Dish with Complex Garnish”
Announcement

Dear authors of the journal!

Please note that the author's copies of the issues in which your texts are published are kept in the editorial office for no more than one year. After this period expires, the editorial office has the right to dispose of unclaimed copies at its own discretion.

 

Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.