Indo-Pacific Rivalry and U.S. Naval Planning

17
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-11-127-136
EDN: ASHOQA
I. Kramnik, ikramnik@imemo.ru
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.
 

Received 25.07.2023. Revised 04.08.2023. Accepted 25.08.2023.

Abstract. The U.S.-China maritime rivalry in recent years has taken on the character of a naval race where the pretender PLA Navy is rapidly increasing its capabilities and already possesses numerical superiority over the U.S. Navy. To some extent, the present situation is similar to previous naval races of the 19th and 20th centuries, between Britain and Germany, between the United States and Japan, and between the United States and the Soviet Union. However, in the past, British and American command of the seas was also confirmed by their advantage in shipbuilding, including commercial one. Now, this advantage has been lost. China, while challenging for sea control, has already gained superiority in shipbuilding. This causes the U.S. to seek means to compensate for the lack of material forces. Nevertheless, the possibility of maintaining sea control in the face of growing numerical superiority of the adversary is questionable. The capability for effective deterrence without an equivalent material basis is also questionable. This situation forces U.S. analysts to search for other solutions, including the change of the naval posture and ship`s classification, which has been established over the decades. So far, these visions have not been incorporated into official strategic guidance. The paper examines the impact of this race on American military planning and its reflection in official strategic guidance. The U.S. strategic guidance hierarchy and the interrelationship of the keystone provisions of its documents as related to military and naval planning are reviewed, as well as the evolution of naval planning in the preceding period. The article considers the key provisions and priorities of the U.S. naval strategy and the criticism of this strategy from the U.S. researchers. It analyses possible further U.S. actions for implementation of the adopted maritime strategy and the limitations on this path.

Keywords: Navy, military planning, Command of the sea, integrated deterrence, maritime strategy


REFERENCES

1. Hooper C. America’s New Naval Strategy Focuses on Maintaining Rules-Based Order at Sea. Forbes, 17.12.2020. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2020/12/17/americas-new-naval-strategy-focuses-on-maintaining-rules-based-order-at-sea/ (accessed 01.07.2023).

2. Luria E. A New U.S. Maritime Strategy. enter for International Maritime Security, 12.07.2021. Available at: https://cimsec.org/a-new-u-s-maritime-strategy/ (accessed 19.06.2023).

3. Bogdanov K.V., Yevtodyeva M.G. U.S.–China: Mechanisms and Dynamics of Arms Race. World Economy and International Relations, 2021, vol. 65, no. 6, pp. 42-50. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-42-50 

4. Rowden T., Gumataotao P., Fanta P. Distributed Lethality. Proceedings, 2015, vol. 141/1/1343, pp. 18-23.

5. Leon P. US to deploy 60% of navy fleet to Pacific. Reuters, 02.06.2012. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-security-idUSBRE85100Y20120602  (accessed 20.08.2023).

6. Herzinger B. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy Has a Navy-Sized Hole in It. World Politics Review, 03.04.2023. Available at https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-vs-china-navy-indo-pacific-strategy-military-fleet/ (accessed 24.07.2023).

7. Eckstein M. No Margin Left: Overworked Carrier Force Struggles to Maintain Deployments After Decades of Overuse. USNI News, 12.11.2020. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2020/11/12/no-margin-left-overworked-carrier-force-struggles-to-maintain-deployments-after-decades-of-overuse (accessed 21.08.2023).

8. Shelbourne M. CNO Gilday: Flat or Declining Navy Budgets ‘Will Definitely Shrink’ the Fleet. USNI News, 15.06.2021. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2021/06/15/cno-gilday-flat-or-declining-navy-budgets-will-definitely-shrink-the-fleet (accessed 23.07.2023).

9. Eckstein M. Light Carrier Studies Already Underway as Navy Considers Role for CVLs in Future Fleet. USNI News, 01.02.2021. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2021/02/01/light-carrier-studies-already-underway-as-navy-considers-role-for-cvls-in-future-fleet (accessed 23.07.2023).

10. Kramnik I.A. The US Navy’s new look: evolution and perspectives. The world after the pandemic: global challenges and prospects for development. Global Development. Iss. 23. Moscow, IMEMO, 2022, . 151-162. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.imemo.ru/en/publications/info/mir-posle-pandemii-vipusk-23 (accessed 23.07.2023).

11. Herzinger B. Fat Leonard Cost the U.S. Navy More Than Money. Foreign Policy, 24.10.2022. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/24/fat-leonard-us-navy-corruption-scandal/ (accessed 01.06.2023).

12. LaGrone S. Paying the Price: The Hidden Cost of the ‘Fat Leonard’ Investigation. USNI News, 24.01.2019. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2019/01/24/paying-price-hidden-cost-fat-leonard-investigation (accessed 01.06.2023).

13. LaGrone S., Fuentes G. Long Chain of Failures Left Sailors Unprepared to Fight USS Bonhomme Richard Fire, Investigation Finds. USNI News, 19.10.2021. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2021/10/19/long-chain-of-failures-left-sailors-unprepared-to-fight-uss-bonhomme-richard-investigation-finds (accessed 07.07.2023).

14. Fang A., Moritsu K. US races to upgrade naval shipyards, wary of Chinese dominance. Nikkei Asia, 19.05.2021. Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/US-races-to-upgrade-naval-shipyards-wary-of-Chinese-dominance (accessed 23.07.2023).

15. Larter D.B. Here’s the US Navy’s plan to stop its string of shipbuilding failures. Defense News, 12.01.2021. Available at: https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/surface-navy-association/2021/01/11/heres-the-us-navys-plan-to-stop-its-string-of-shipbuilding-failures/ (accessed 23.07.2023).

16. Woody C. A new deal with Norway allows the US to keep an eye on Russian subs closer to Russia’s home turf. Business Insider, 21.04.2021. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-agreement-allows-us-to-build-on-bases-near-russia-2021-4 (accessed 01.07.2023).

17. Shelbourne M. Navy Creates New Atlantic Destroyer Task Group to Hunt Russian Submarines. USNI News, 27.09.2021. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2021/09/27/navy-creates-new-atlantic-destroyer-task-group-to-hunt-russian-submarines (accessed 01.06.2023).

18. Eckstein M. U.S., U.K. Navies Working to Achieve ‘Interchangeability’ in Carrier Forces, Collaboration on Unmanned and AI. USNI News, 20.10.2020. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2020/10/20/u-s-u-k-navies-working-to-achieve-interchangeability-in-carrier-forces-collaboration-on-unmanned-and-ai (accessed 20.05.2023).

19. Khan W. Resurrecting 1st Fleet: US Navy explores Indian Ocean options. Nikkei Asia, 21.04.2021. Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Resurrecting-1st-Fleet-US-Navy-explores-Indian-Ocean-options (accessed 01.06.2023).


SOURCES

1. U.S. Department of the Navy Tri-Service Maritime Strategy “Advantage at Sea: Prevailing with Integrated All- Domain Naval Power”. U.S. Department of Defense, 12.2020. 36 p. Available at: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/16/2002553074/-1/-1/0/TRISERVICESTRATEGY.PDF (accessed 23.07.2023).

2. U.S. Department of the Navy Tri-Service Maritime Strategy “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower”. Homeland Security Digital Library, 10.2007. 20 p. Available at: https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=479900 (accessed 23.07.2023).

3. The National Security Strategy of the United States, 2022. National Security Strategy Archive, 10.2002. 48 p. Available at: https://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2022/ (accessed 24.07.2023).

4. U.S. Department of Defense National Defense Strategy, 2022. U.S. Department of Defense, 10.2022. 80 p. Available at: https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF (accessed 24.07.2023).

5. Joint Chiefs of Staff National Military Strategy, 2022. U.S. Department of Defense, 2022. 8 p. Available at: http://web.archive.org/web/20230515120240/https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/NMS%202022%20_%20Signed.pdf (accessed 24.07.2023).

6. Eleventh Annual South China Sea Conference: Session One. Center for Strategic & International Studies, 02.08.2021. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/eleventh-annual-south-china-sea-conference-session-one (accessed 23.07.2023).

7. U.S. Navy CNO FRAGO 01/2019: A Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority. U. S. Department of Defense, 12.2019. 8 p. Available at: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jul/23/2002463491/-1/-1/1/CNO%20FRAGO%2001_2019.PDF (accessed 23.07.2023).

8. The National Security Strategy of the United States, 2002. National Security Strategy Archive, 09.2002. 35 p. Available at: https://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2002/ (accessed 23.07.2023).

9. The National Security Strategy of the United States, 2006. National Security Strategy Archive, 03.2006. 54 p. Available at: https://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2006/ (accessed 23.07.2023).

10. The National Security Strategy of the United States, 2010. National Security Strategy Archive, 05.2010. 60 p. Available at: https://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2010/ (accessed 23.07.2023).

11. Janes Fighting Ships 2022–23. Coulsdon, Surrey, Janes Group, 2022. 1008 p.

12. CRS Report: Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2). Congressional Research Service, 21.01.2022. 3 p. Available at: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11493 (accessed 20.05.2023).

13. The National Security Strategy of the United States, 2015. National Security Strategy Archive, 02.2015. 35 p. Available at: https://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2015/ (accessed 23.07.2023).

14. The National Security Strategy of the United States, 2017. National Security Strategy Archive, 12.2017. 68 p. Available at: https://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2017/ (accessed 23.07.2023).

15. CRS Report: Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress. Congressional Research Service, 19.04.2023. 70 p. Available at: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL32665 (accessed 23.07.2023).

16. Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States. White House, 02.2022. 19 p. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf (accessed 24.07.2023).

17. U.S. Department of the Navy Memorandum: USS Fitzgerald, USS John S. McCain Collision Report. USNI News, 24.11.2017. Available at: https://news.usni.org/2017/11/01/uss-fitzgerald-uss-john-s-mccain-collision-report (accessed 07.07.2023).


For citation:
Kramnik I. Indo-Pacific Rivalry and U.S. Naval Planning. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2023, vol. 67, no. 11, pp. 127-136. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-11-127-136 EDN: ASHOQA



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 4
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Financial Contagion Propagation in Europe under the Impact of Global Shocks
  • Regional Powers on the African Continent: Trends and Prospects
  • Investment Activity of the PRC in the Kyrgyz Republic
  • “Land Grabbing” Concept: Global and National Aspects
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.