Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economy of Thailand

48
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-8-52-60
S. Golovin, golovinsn@hotmail.com
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, 32/34, Smolenskaya-Sennaya Sq., Moscow, 119200, Russian Federation.

Received 10.02.2022. Revised 22.04.2022. Accepted 01.06.2022.

Abstract. The author analyzes the situation in the Thai economy in 2020–2021 after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic basing on the experience of working in this country as a Russian diplomat. Thailand was hit harder by the pandemic than the neighboring countries due to a larger share of tourism sector in the GDP, problems with the supply and local production of vaccines at an initial stage as well as the sharp decline in foreign trade. After a rocky start the Thai authorities managed to launch mass vaccination campaign and continue measures to support business and vulnerable groups of population. A reviving demand in developed countries helped to increase exports. However, the Thai economy’s recovery is going to be long and uneven. Firstly, global tourism sector is unlikely to return back to previous level soon and would depend on the COVID-19 situation. The possibility of further stepping up international trade will be limited because of global supply chain disruptions. Moreover, it will be difficult to support the GDP growth through the private and public consumption – the household and government debt during last 2 years have considerably increased. This could have negative impact on economic growth in 2022 and in the long-term. Hence, this year the Thai authorities would have to conduct prudent policy while trying to support households’ income and confine growing unemployment, because fiscal space for new borrowing is running out. Another priority is keeping epidemic situation in the Kingdom in order by continuing vaccination of its population.

Keywords: Thailand, COVID-19, economic growth, tourism, exports, household debt, public debt


REFERENCES

1. Marwah R., Ramanayake S. S. Pandemic-Led Disruptions in Asia: Tracing the Early Economic Impacts on Sri Lanka and Thailand. South Asian Survey, 2021, vol. 28 (1), pp. 172-198. DOI: 10.1177/0971523121995023

2. Morgan P., Trinh L. Impacts of COVID‑19 on Households in ASEAN Countries and their Implications for Human Capital Development. ADBI Working Paper Series, no. 1226, March 2021. 30 p. DOI: 10.1177/0971523121995023

3. Parasuk C. No Choice but to Open the Economy. Bangkok Post, 14.10.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2197419/no-choice-but-to-open-the-economy (accessed 22.04.2022).

4. Chantanusornsiri W., Arunmas P., Theparat Ch. Govt to Raise Debt Ceiling. Bangkok Post, 21.09.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2184923/govt-to-raise-debt-ceiling (accessed 22.04.2022).

5. Yuvejwattana S., Chuwiruch P. Bank of Thailand Head Says Virus Fight May Need 1 Trillion Baht More. Bloomberg News, 16.08.2021. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-16/bank-of-thailand-head-says-virus-fight-may-need-30-billion-more (accessed 22.04.2022).

6. Chantanusornsiri W. B1 Trillion to Beat Omicron. Bangkok Post, 03.12.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2225743/b1-trillion-to-beat-omicron (accessed 22.04.2022).

7. Rattiwan S. List of Countries, Territories Permitted to Enter Thailand Grows to 63. National News Bureau of Thailand, 01.11.2021. Available at: https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/print_news/TCATG211101103405058 (accessed 22.04.2022).

8. Chantanusornsiri W. FPO Ups Tourist Arrival Forecast to 200,000. Bangkok Post, 22.11.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2219259/fpo-ups-tourist-arrival-forecast-to-200-000 (accessed 22.04.2022).

9. Saxon S., Sodprasert J., Sucharitakul V. Reimagining Travel: Thailand Tourism after the COVID‑19 Pandemic. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/reimagining-travel-thailand-tourism-after-the-COVID-19-pandemic (accessed 22.04.2022).

10. Theparat C. Investment Set to Hit B600bn by Year-end. Bangkok Post, 04.11.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2209243/investment-set-to-hit-b600bn-by-year-end (accessed 22.04.2022).

11. Parasuk C. Thai Economy Unlikely to Rebound Soon. Bangkok Post, 30.09.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2189895/thai-economy-unlikely-to-rebound-soon (accessed 22.04.2022).

12. Theparat C. Premier Prioritizes Debt Measures. Bangkok Post, 04.03.2022. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2273563/premier-prioritises-debt-measures (accessed 22.04.2022).

13. Parasuk C. Can Omicron Spur a Great Depression? Bangkok Post, 02.12.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2225231/can-omicron-spur-a-great-depression- (accessed 22.04.2022).


SOURCES

1. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor. World Bank Group, 16.03.2022. 5 p. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/944361647436431095/pdf/Thailand-Monthly-Economic-Monitor.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

2. Thailand Economic Monitor: Living with COVID in a Digital World. World Bank Group. 58 p. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099505112112129099/pdf/P1774810eff81c0030b22f0874a695a491d.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

3. From Resiliency to Recovery and Beyond: Central Bank Policies for an Uncertain World. Bank of Thailand, 25.08.2021. 9 p. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/PressandSpeeches/Speeches/Gov/SpeechGov01_25Aug2021.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

4. Live COVID‑19 Vaccination Tracker. Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation of the Kingdom of Thailand. Available at: https://www.mhesi.go.th/index.php/content_page/item/3547-share-of-people-who-received-at-least-one-dose-of-COVID-19-vaccine.html (accessed 22.04.2022).

5. Statement by the Hon Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, Governor of the World Bank for Thailand. World Bank Group, 14.10.2021. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/meetings/external/annualmeeting-1/WBGS202107-Thailand-E-Final.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

6. Impact of COVID‑19 on Thailand’s Households. World Bank Group, 12.11.2021. 51 p. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/390821633313679563/pdf/Impact-of-COVID-19-on-Thailand-s-Households-Insights-from-a-Rapid-Phone-Survey.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

7. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor. World Bank Group, 18.10.2021. 4 p. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/416091634567007271/pdf/Thailand-Monthly-Economic-Monitor.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

8. Government Domestic Debt Outstanding Classified by Holders. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=40&language=eng (accessed 22.04.2022).

9. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor. World Bank Group, 12.11.2021. 5 p. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/717141636994177060/pdf/Thailand-Monthly-Economic-Monitor.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

10. Loan Outstanding of Commercial Banks Classified by Asset Classification Type. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=829&language=eng (accessed 22.04.2022).

11. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor. World Bank Group, 20.01.2022. 4 p. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/968201642689651619/pdf/Thailand-Monthly-Economic-Monitor.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

12. First Local Transmission of Omicron Reported in Thailand. Khaosod English, 20.12.2021. Available at: https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2021/12/20/first-local-transmission-of-omicron-reported-in-thailand/ (accessed 22.04.2022).

13. Thailand Reinstates Mandatory COVID‑19 Quarantine, Scraps Waiver Programme. Channel News Asia, 21.12.2021. Available at: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-reinstate-mandatory-COVID-19-quarantine-foreign-visitors-omicron-2393381 (accessed 22.04.2022).

14. International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand. Available at: https://www.mots.go.th/more_news_new.php?cid=629 (accessed 22.04.2022).

15. Trade of Thailand Year WORLD. Available at: https://tradereport.moc.go.th/Report/ReportEng.aspx?Report=TradeEnSummary (accessed 22.04.2022).

16. 2021 Exports Expected to Grow 17%, Most in 12 Years – Arkhom. Reuters, 29.11.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2223559/2021-exports-expected-to-grow-17-most-in-12-years-arkhom (accessed 22.04.2022).

17. Analyst Meeting No. 3/2021. Bank of Thailand, 18.10.2021. 26 p. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/Monetary%20Policy%20Report/AnalystMeeting_3_2564_EN.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

18. Thai Economic Performance in Q3 and Outlook for 2021–2022. National Economic and Social Development Council Economic Report, 15.11.2021. 36 p. Available at: https://www.nesdc.go.th/nesdb_en/article_attach/article_file_20211125130631.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

19. Export-Import Year 2020–2021 (January–December). Available at: https://tradereport.moc.go.th/Report/ReportEng.aspx?Report=TradeBalanceMonthly&Lang=Eng (accessed 22.04.2022).

20. Foreign Direct Investment Statistics and Summary (January–December 2021). Board of Investment of Thailand, 12.01.2022. 11 p. Available at: https://www.boi.go.th/upload/content/FDI%202021_6209cc1ce470c.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

21. Thailand Social’s Outlook of Q4/2021 and Overview of 2021. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council, 28.02.2022. 11 p. Available at: https://www.nesdc.go.th/nesdb_en/download/article/article_20220228094027.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

22. Thai Q4 Jobless Rate at Lowest Level since Pandemic as Curbs Ease. Reuters, 28.02.2022. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-q4-jobless-rate-lowest-level-since-pandemic-curbs-ease-2022-02-28/ (accessed 22.04.2022).

23. Monetary Policy Report December 2021. Bank of Thailand, 22.12.2021. 64 p. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/Monetary%20Policy%20Report/MPREng_December2021.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

24. Monetary Policy Committee’s Decision 8/2021. Bank of Thailand Press Release, 22.12.2021. 8 p. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/Documents/PressMPC_82021_52dkq73.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

25. Forecast Summary in Monetary Policy Report – March 2022. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/Pages/default.aspx (accessed 22.04.2022).

26. World Economic Outlook Update: Rising Caseloads, a Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/01/25/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2022 (accessed 22.04.2022).

27. Performance of the Thai Banking System in 2021. Bank of Thailand, 21.02.2022. 14 p. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/PressandSpeeches/Press/News2565/n0965e.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).

28. Loans to Household. Available at: https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=775&language=eng (accessed 22.04.2022).

29. Thailand Social’s Outlook of Q3/2021. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council. 10 p. Available at: https://www.nesdc.go.th/nesdb_en/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=4472&filename=social_dev_report#:~:text=Thailand%27s%20key%20social%20situations%20and,the%20COVID-19%20has%20started (accessed 22.04.2022).

30. Japan Household Debt: % of GDP. Available at: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/japan/household-debt-of-nominal-gdp (accessed 22.04.2022).

31. FTI Warns of “Big Wave” Risks. Bangkok Post, 29.12.2021. Available at: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2239391/fti-warns-of-big-wave-risks (accessed 22.04.2022).

32. Thai Economic Performance in Q4 and 2021 and Outlook for 2022. National Economic and Social Development Council Economic Report, 15.11.2021. 36 p. Available at: https://www.nesdc.go.th/nesdb_en/article_attach/article_file_20220228094737.pdf (accessed 22.04.2022).


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Golovin S. Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economy of Thailand. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2022, vol. 66, no. 8, pp. 52-60. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-8-52-60



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 4
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Financial Contagion Propagation in Europe under the Impact of Global Shocks
  • Regional Powers on the African Continent: Trends and Prospects
  • Investment Activity of the PRC in the Kyrgyz Republic
  • “Land Grabbing” Concept: Global and National Aspects
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.