40Received 29.12.2021. Revised 04.04.2022. Accepted 21.04.2022.
Acknowledgments: to Arbatova N.K. for help in preparation of the article.
Abstract. The article analyses influence of the pandemics on economic and political developments as well as on the conflict resolution process in the Western Balkan (WB) region. The unprecedented epidemiological conditions of the years 2020–2021 led to utter deterioration of regional economic rates. Serbia can be named as the only exception with its GDP growth in 2020 (although also negative) higher than the regional and, moreover, European average. Negative political consequences of the two recent years with COVID‑19, observed in the article, range from the rise of “covidocracy”, namely strengthening of executive institutions at the expense of the local parliaments, courts and media freedom, to the landmark changes in political elites of Montenegro and Kosovo as well as deterioration of conflicts in Kosovo and Bosnia. The pandemics has also negatively affected the pace of the European integration process in the region. The slowdown was connected both with turbulences inside the EU given its initial lack of solidarity and with an attempt to address the crisis on the national rather than on the European level, its consequent emphasis on the internal rather than external development. The EU perspective as such has grown more distant from the Western Balkans. Yet, regional cooperation with the introduction of the “Open Balkans” initiative has accelerated, which has been designed to bring the WB countries closer to the European common market. At the same time, the pandemics significantly strengthened Russian and Chinese presence in the region, which provoked the EU into geopolitical race. The author comes to a conclusion, however, that eventually, the European assistance can be characterized as systemic and structural, masterminded within the context of future WB integration in the EU institutions. Nevertheless, European mediation in the situation of stalemate in Belgrade–Pristina negotiations could not prevent serious degradation of the conflict over Kosovo’s status. In Bosnia, former High Representative’s imposition of the Genocide denial ban also sparked off the crisis, which puts the future of a unified Bosnian state into question. These negative developments in conflict management, to some extent triggered by the pandemics, can impair stabilization process and security in the Western Balkans.
Keywords: pandemics, Western Balkans, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Security, European Union
REFERENCES
1. Arbatova N.K. EU Security: Micro-Aggression with Macro-Consequences. Polis. Political Studies, 2021, no. 5, pp. 94-108. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.05.07
2. Sokolova P.S. Serbia, Recover! Relevant Comment. IMEMO. 17.07.2020. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.imemo.ru/publications/relevant-comments/text/serbiya-vizdoravlivay (accessed 13.04.2022).
3. Entina E.G. The International Factor in the Domestic Political Transformation in the Kosovo’s “Albanian World”. Journal of International Analytics, 2021, no. 12 (1), pp. 112-131. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2021-12-1-112-131
4. Kandel P.E. Montenegrin Miracle: Dismantling of the M. Djukanovic’s Regime. Contemporary Europe, 2021, no. 1, pp. 41-51. (In Russ.) Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope120214151
5. Velikaya A. The Role of Humanitarian Aid in Positioning of the Country. Observer, 2020, no. 7, pp. 53-63. (In Russ.)
SOURCES
1. Infrastructure in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe: Benchmarking, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Issues.
International Monetary Fund. 28.09.2020. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2020/09/25/Infrastructure-in-Central-Eastern-and-Southeastern-Europe-Benchmarking-Macroeconomic-Impact-49580 (accessed 20.03.2022).
2. COVID‑19 Coronavirus Pandemic. Worldometer. 26.03.2022. Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed 26.03.2022).
3. Coronavirus in Kosovo. COVID‑19 World Statistics. 26.03.2022. Available at: https://covid.observer/xk/ (accessed 26.03.2022).
4. Balkan Barometer 2021. Regional Cooperation Council. Available at: https://www.rcc.int/balkanbarometer/infographics?test=621 (accessed 23.12.2021).
5. World Economic Outlook Database. April 2021 Edition. Entire Dataset. International Monetary Fund. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April (accessed 20.03.2022).
6. BSF Panel 1: Dismantling Covidocracy – Protecting Democracy. Belgrade Security Forum. YouTube. 15.10.2021. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XIOADh9aXg (accessed 20.03.2022).
7. Countries and Territories. Democracy Scores. Freedom House. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/countries/nations-transit/scores (accessed 11.03.2022).
8. Covid‑19 Vaccination Tracker. Reuters, 24.03.2022. Available at: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access/ (accessed 24.03.2022).
9. European Security Cooperation with Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans. European Council on Foreign Relations. 11.03.2021. Available at: https://ecfr.eu/event/european-security-cooperation-with-eastern-neighbourhood-and-western-balkans/ (accessed 11.03.2022).
10. EU Support to Western Balkans in Tackling COVID‑19. European Commission. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/sites/near/files/coronavirus_support_wb.pdf (accessed 11.03.2022).
11. Brdo Declaration, 6 October 2021. European Council. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/news/brdo-declaration-6-october-2021-2021-10-06_en (accessed 07.03.2022).
12. Common Regional Market. Regional Cooperation Council. Available at: https://www.rcc.int/pages/143/common-regionalmarket (accessed 11.03.2022).
13. Hamster in the Wheel – Credibility and EU Balkan Policy. European Stability Initiative. 15.01.2020. Available at: https://www.esiweb.org/publications/hamster-wheel-credibility-and-eu-balkan-policy (accessed 20.03.2022).
14. Academic Report on the Sufferings of All Peoples in the Srebrenica Region between 1992 and 1995. Available at: https://incomfis-srebrenica.org (accessed 20.03.2022).
15. Agreement on Civilian Implementation of the Peace Settlement. Annex 10 to the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina. United Nations. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/pdf/civilian.pdf (accessed 20.03.2022).
16. Press-Conference of S. Lavrov and B. Turkovic. Sochi, 21.12.2021. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. YouTube. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtG8298UI9M (accessed 20.03.2022).
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX
No comments