98Received 10.08.2022. Revised 22.08.2022. Accepted 24.08.2022.
Acknowledgments. The article was prepared within the project “Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement No. 075-15-2020-783).
Abstract. The authors posit that a given world order for analytical purposes may be regarded as a large self-developing system in which developing countries form a massive subsystem (DC subsystem). And the survival of the entire Large System in its unique essence crucially depends on a certain state and position of this subsystem. The article puts forward a number of theoretical propositions about the regularities of the successive change of the world order systems. Possible vectors and expected limits of changes in the state of the “DC subsystem” in the new equation of the post-crisis world order are shown. The authors conclude that the intensity of competition between global centers of power for influence in the emerging world order will increase over the next decade. In these conditions, developing countries, despite their heterogeneity and increasing differentiation, can exert a certain influence on the course of this struggle and on the design of the structures of the emerging world order. The situation of rising instability and confrontational geopolitical environment in the world after February 2022 will not bypass developing regions. The West will seek to drive Russia and China into a “geopolitical box” in the short term, and in the medium and long term it will aim to reduce its perimeter. Intensive development of a wide range of relations with developing countries is an important condition to successfully counter the Western aggression. Apart from directly counteracting the efforts of the rival, Moscow and Beijing will systematically work towards the formation of norms, rules and institutions of the post-crisis world order. The most important condition for the successful promotion of Russian interests in Asia, Africa and Latin America is the understanding and pragmatic consideration of the assessments and vision of the developing countries themselves of their own interests in this emerging world order.
Keywords: theory of systems, development, resources, world economy, international stability, confrontation, demographic dividend, middle class
REFERENCES
1. Fituni L.L., Abramova I.O. Patterns of Formation and Change of Models of World Economic Development. World Economy and International Relations, 2012, no. 7, ðð. 3-15. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2012-7-3-15
2. Abramova I.O. Developing Countries in the World Economy of the XXI Century: The Formation of a New Architecture of International Economic Relations. Problems of Modern Economy, 2011, no. 1 (37), pp. 70-75. (In Russ.)
3. Fituni L.L. Changing Patterns of World Development and Global Governance: A Civilizational Dimension. Vostok/Oriens, 2013, no. 4, pp. 18-29. (In Russ.)
4. Fituni L.L. BRICS in the New Models of World Economic Development. BRICS and Africa: Cooperation for Development. Aydrus I.A., ed. Moscow, RUDN, 2013, ðp. 12-16. (In Russ.)
5. Golansky M.M. Rise and Fall of Global Economy. Journal of the Institute for African Studies, 1999, no. 6, pð. 7-127. (In Russ.)
6. Golansky M.M. Modern political economy. What does the Coming Century Have in Store for Us? Moscow, Editorial URSS, 1998. 152 p. (In Russ.)
7. Krugman P., Melitz M., Obstfeld M. Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform. International Economics: Theory and Policy. Harlow, Pearson, 2018, pp. 720-763.
8. Reinert K.A., Rajan R.S., eds. The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy. In 2 vols. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2009. 1336 ð.
9. Grossman G.M., Rogoff K., eds. Handbook of International Economics. Vol. 3. Amsterdam, Elsevier/North Holland, 1995. 898 p.
10. Cornia G.C. The Macroeconomics of Developing Countries. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2020. 416 p.
11. Dynkin A.A., ed. Strategic Global Forecast 2030. Extended Version. Moscow, Magistr, 2011. 480 p. (In Russ.)
12. Guillemette Y., Turner D. The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060. OECD Economic Policy Papers, 2018, no. 22. DOI: 10.1787/b4f4e03e-en
13. Abramova I.O., Fituni L.L. The African Segment of Multipolar World: Dynamics of Geostrategic Significancy. World Economy and International Relations, 2018, vol. 62, no. 12, pp. 5-14. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-12-5-14
14. Davydov V.M. From Geopolitical Crisis to Military-Political Conflict and Reshaping of World Order. Iberoamerica, 2022, no. 2, pp. 5-25. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.37656/s20768400-2022-2-01
15. Green S.J. South America by 2030: Political, Economic and Security Outlook. Global Americans, December 2018. Available at: https://theglobalamericans.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/DOD_South-America_FINAL.pdf (accessed 07.08.2022).
SOURCES
1. Country Classifications. World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022. N.Y., United Nations, 2022, pp. 153-159. Available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/WESP2022_ANNEX.pdf (accessed 12.08.2022).
2. World Development Indicators 2016. World Bank, 2016. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/23969/9781464806834.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y (accessed 01.08.2022).
3. World Economic and Financial Surveys. World Economic Outlook Database – WEO Groups and Aggregates Information. IMF, April 2022. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2022/01/weodata/groups.htm (accessed 01.08.2022).
4. Frequently Asked Questions. WEO Country Groups and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). World Economic Outlook (WEO). IMF, 19.04.2022. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/faq.htm (accessed 01.08.2022).
5. Global Trends 2040. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, March 2021. Available at: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home/introduction (accessed 18.03.2022).
6. African Economic Outlook 2017. OECD Development Centre, 22.05.2017. DOI: 10.1787/aeo‑2017-en
7. The 19th Congress of the CPC Outlined a Timetable for China’s Development until 2050. EKD, 18.10.2017. (In Russ.) Available at: http://ekd.me/2017/10/xix-sezd-kpk-oboznachil-grafik-razvitiya-kitaya-do-2050-goda/ (accessed 27.07.2022).
8. GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $) – China, World. The World Bank. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD?locations=CN-1W (accessed 18.03.2022).
9. China Has Not Ruled Out the Scenario of Seizing Taiwan by Force. RBC, 10.08.2022. (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/08/2022/62f340099a7947167fa109c3?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop (accessed 10.08.2022).
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX
No comments