Central Europe: Possible Scenarios

64
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-11-14-20
A. Chetverikova, chetverikova@imemo.ru
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAN), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation

 

Received 22.07.2022. Revised 31.08.2022. Accepted 05.09.2022.

Acknowledgements. The article was prepared within the project “Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement No. 075-15-2020-783).


Abstract. The article attempts to assess the possible prospects for the development of the Central European countries. For this purpose, the main economic trends of the Visegrad countries are analyzed, taking into account current forecasts of their future economic growth. Problems of inflation, unemployment, labor productivity are considered. Possible structural shifts in the “four” and the importance of the secondary sector as one of the foundations of its economy are assessed. The resource base of future development is analyzed taking into account demographic trends and investment resources, the foreign component of which is one of the key factors of the Visegrad countries economic growth. One of the most pressing issues of future development is meeting the needs for energy resources, which is still difficult to assess and will have a significant impact on the prospects of the region. The innovation sector is one of the weaknesses of the Central European countries, development dynamics of which indicates that the region is lagging behind and that the situation will continue in the future, which also determines its future development. For the comprehensive assessment of the region SWOT analysis is carries out, classifying the main external and internal conditions and development factors. The analysis made it possible to identify three generalized possible scenarios for the development of the region: “negative”, “basic” and “optimistic”. The base scenarios don’t exclude “mixed” options for the prospects of the Visegrad countries. In addition, for individual members of the “four” their own scenario is possible, which differs from other countries of the region due to the peculiarities of a particular state. Future scenarios influence the relation with Russia, ties with which are already changing significantly.

Keywords: Central Europe, Visegrad Group, economic dynamics, development factors, scenarios


REFERENCES

1. Xu K. Visegrad Group in Post-Brexit EU: Scenarios and Options. Homoki-Nagy M., ed. Acta Universitatis Szegediensis. Forum: publicationes doctorandorum juridicorum. X ev. Szeged, 2020, pp. 79-86.

2. Chetverikova A.S. Central Europe in the pandemic era: first economic results. World Economy and International Relations, 2021, vol. 65, no. 3, pp. 92-101. (In Russ.) Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-3-92-101 

3 Akimov A.V. Scenarios for the development of the world economy and European countries by 2050. Russia: trends and development prospects. Efremenko D.V., Gerasimov V.I., eds. Moscow, INION RAN, 2016, pp. 9-15. (In Russ.)

4. Capello R., Carargliu A., Fratesi U. Global Trends and the Economic Crisis: Future Alternative European Growth Strategies. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015, vol. 98, pp. 120-136. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.005

5. Bendarzsevskij A. The Future Prospects of the V4. Research / Geopolitics, 31.03.2021. Available at: https://danubeinstitute.hu/en/research/the-future-prospects-of-the-v4 (accessed 16.06.2022).

6. Sass M. FDI-based Models and what the Future May Have in Store for Them. Special Issue 30th Anniversary of the Visegrád Agreement. Wien, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, 2021, pp. 18-26.

7. Lobanov M.M., Zvezdanovic Lobanova J. Request stop: economies of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern European countries during the pandemic. Bulletin of the IE RAS, 2021, no. 5, pp. 116-141. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.52180/2073- 6487_2021_5_116_141

8. Dynkin A.A., ed. The world of 2035. Global outlook. Moscow, Magistr, 2017. 352 p.

9. Vida K. Past, Present and Future Macroeconomic Trends of the Visegrad Countries: Heading towards More Convergence? Prospects of the Visegrad Cooperation. Identifying Converging and Diverging Factors. Tury G., ed. Budapest, Institute of World Economics, 2015, pp. 143-168.


SOURCES

1. Global Trends to 2035. Geo-politics and International Power. European Parliamentary Research Service, 2017. 111 ð. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/603263/EPRS_STU(2017)603263_EN.pdf (accessed 03.06.2022).

2. European Economic Forecast. Spring 2022. Institutional Paper 173. European Commission, May 2022. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/system/files/economy-finance/ip173_en.pdf (accessed 03.06.2022).

3. Level of GDP per Capita and Productivity. OECD, March 2022. Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PDB_LV (accessed 07.06.2022).

4. Population Projection. OECD, 20.09.2021. Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=POPPROJ# (accessed 16.06.2022).

5. Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine. OECD, March 2022. 16 p. Available at: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook/volume-2022/issue-2_4181d61b-en;jsessionid=lSEI0q5gwtdE4zMgBlCirAdGkxw2u96DQaf7D58n.ip-10-240-5-98 (accessed 03.06.2022).

6. Globsec Trends 2021. Central & Eastern Europe One Year into the Pandemic. Bratislava, Globsec, 2021. 84 p. Available at: https://www.globsec.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/GLOBSEC-Trends‑2021_final.pdf (accessed 03.06.2022).


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Chetverikova A. Central Europe: Possible Scenarios. World Eñonomy and International Relations, 2022, vol. 66, no. 11, pp. 14-20. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-11-14-20



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 11
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • U.S. Protectionism Against China’s Mercantilism  
  • U.S. Military Cooperation with Its Allies in Northeast Asia 
  • Russia Under the Conditions of Global Economy Regionalization
  • Greater Middle East
Announcement

Dear authors of the journal!

Please note that the author's copies of the issues in which your texts are published are kept in the editorial office for no more than one year. After this period expires, the editorial office has the right to dispose of unclaimed copies at its own discretion.

 

Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.