Beijings Pain Points 3 (The Change of Economic Model and Foreign Policy Risks)

DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-1-28-37
V. Mikheev,
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation.

Received 26.01.2021.

Acknowledgements. The article was prepared within the project “Post-Crisis World Order: Challenges and Technologies, Competition and Cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement No. 075-15-2020-783).

Abstract. The consequences of COVID 19, both inside and outside China, especially in the countries – major importers of Chinese products, have negatively impacted the Chinese economy. These negative socio-economic consequences forced Beijing to accelerate the transition to a relatively new economic development model, which was marked in the early 2000s. The main component of this model is the expansion of domestic consumption and, accordingly, a further increase of the contribution of this indicator to the Chinese GDP itself and of its growth rate. However, this does not mean that China will abandon economic expansion and the implementation of its foreign economic and initiatives. Their importance as structural parts of the new economic model will continue and even grow. The acceleration of the transition to the dominance of domestic consumption in economic development is additionally conditioned by the foreign policy deadlock in which China found itself at the end of 2020. Despite the world’s fastest economic recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic, China has been unable to take advantage of this advantage effectively. Chinese “mask” diplomacy did not bring the desired results for Beijing – the PRC was not able to raise the leader’s torch temporarily lost by the United States. On the contrary, under the influence of Western propaganda, the contradiction in the perception of China as “our own” in the market sphere and “an alien” in the sphere of ideology has intensified. At the same time, due to increased competition in high-tech markets, in particular, 5G communication technologies, the ideological “alienation” of China is beginning to be used by Western countries in market wars in their favor. The forecast of economic development both by international and Chinese experts assumes the growth rate of China’s GDP in 2021 will be in the range of 6–8%. In our opinion, this is an overly optimistic estimate, and the corresponding figure will probably be 5–6%. The PRC is entering the 14th Five-Year Plan amid greater uncertainty: the prospects for the recovery of the world economy as a whole and, in particular, of the main Chinese trading partners, are not clear; limited instability is possible due to the accelerated change in the model of economic development; the volume of Chinese GDP has reached more than 15 trillion USD, therefore, each percent of its growth has become significantly “heavier” and more difficult to achieve. At the same time, the primacy in economic recovery and the continued potential for the expansion of the Chinese middle class bring positive contribution to the economic prospects of the PRC.

Keywords: world economy, international relations, China, foreign policy, economic development model, Russian-Chinese relations


  1. Magnier M. China’s fumble: Beijing dropped the ball after Donald Trump’s US left the global stage, analysts say. SCMP, 25.12.2020. Available at: (accessed 15.01.2021).
  2. Xi Jinping: Explanation of the “Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Long-Term Goals for 2035”. XINHUA, 03.11.2020. (In Chin.) Available at: (accessed 05.01.2021).
  3. CCP Will Not Dictate U.S. – China Relations. Available at: (accessed 10.11.2020).
  4. Military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China 2020. Annual Report to Congress. Available at: (accessed 15.01.2021).
  5. Ross R.S. It’s not a cold war: competition and cooperation in US–China relations. Springer Link, 19.06.2020. Available at: (accessed 03.01.2021).
  6. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Regular Press Conference on January 7, 2021. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, 07.01.2021. (In Chin.) Available at: (accessed 23.01.2021).
  7. Chen Zheng: Six unchanged and two changes of Biden’s China policy. Sohu, 20.11.2020. (In Chin.) Available at: (accessed 20.12.2020).
  8. After Biden took office, how is China-US relations going? Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. People’s Daily, 21.01.2020. (In Chin.) Available at: (accessed 30.01.2021).
  9. Cheng Li. Avoiding Three Traps in Confronting China’s Party-State. Available at: (accessed 12.12.2020).
  10. India has decided not to participate in the Russian exercises “Caucasus‑2020”. RBK-Politika, 30.08.2020. (In Russ.) Available at: (accessed 11.10.2020).
  11. Quad talks: Can ‘Asian Nato’ take on China in Indo-Pacific? The Times of India, 06.10.2020. Available at: (accessed 10.01.2021).
  12. Full text of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s at French Institute of International Relations. XINHUA, 01.09.2020. (In Chin.) Available at: (accessed 25.12.2020).
  13. Nyabiage J. G7 to press China on debt relief for coronavirus-hit poor nations. South Chine Morning Post, 29.09.2020. Available at: (accessed 13.12.2020).
  14. Xi Jinping Attends Session I of 15th G20 Leaders’ Summit and Delivers a Keynote Speech. XINHUA, 22.11.2020. (In Chin.) Available at: (accessed 25.12.2020).
  15. Olander E. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi begins five-nation Africa tour. Foreign Affairs, 05.01.2021. Available at: (accessed 03.01.2021).

Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Mikheev V., Lukonin S. Beijings Pain Points 3 (The Change of Economic Model and Foreign Policy Risks). World Eonomy and International Relations, 2022, vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 28-37.

Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment






Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies


Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 2

Topical Themes of the Issue:

  • Fiscal Policy of Advanced Economies: Playing by the Rules?  
  • Iranian Development Model: State and Society Concept, Crises and Problems
  • Afghan-Pakistan Relations: Problems and Challenges in XXI Century
  • Climate Issues under Changing Geopolitical Conditions
Submit an Article
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.