China in Global Capital Markets

160
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-8-81-89
M. Potapov (mpotapov2@yandex.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation;
N. Kotlyarov (kotlyarov_nn@mail.ru),
Interregional Public Organization “Scientific and Technical Society named after Academician S. Vavilov”, 10-2, Mohovaya Str., Moscow, 119019, Russian Federation

Received 04.02.2021.

Abstract. The article is analyzing the positions of China in global capital markets, and the factors that determine them. It shows the trends and features of attracting foreign direct investment in China, exporting Chinese capital abroad, attracting portfolio investments to China. The investment aspects of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and the role of Hong Kong as an international financial center are also considered. The evolution of the currency market regulation in China and the dynamics of the Yuan exchange rate, as well as the internationalizing of the Chinese currency and its use in cross-border operations are also discussed. The authors believe that the prospects for strengthening China’s position in the global capital markets will be determined by a number of circumstances, including the dynamics of the world economy, the growth rate of the Chinese economy, and the consistent liberalization of conditions for cross-border capital movement in China. The maintaining of higher growth rates of the Chinese economy in the context of the global recession and the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the ongoing liberalization of the domestic capital markets, suggest that the Chinese economy will remain attractive for foreign investors. The export of Chinese direct investment abroad will be largely determined by the dynamics of the country’s foreign trade, national restrictions on the export of capital, the implementing the Belt and Road Initiative and the position of China’s leading economic partners, primarily the United States, towards Chinese investment. At the same time, increased geopolitical and country risks will affect the geographical structure of China’s investment abroad in the direction of enhancing cooperation with Asian countries and participants of the Belt and Road Project. In the context of aggravated relations with the United States, China will make efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar in settlements. Further steps will also be taken to internationalize the Chinese national currency and to achieve an increase in the use of RMB in payments. The lifting of restrictions on cross-border portfolio investments in the PRC is predetermined by ensuring the domestic macroeconomic stability, strengthening the financial system, low inflation, affordable credit, a stable balance of payments, and sufficient foreign exchange reserves. China’s real entry into the world’s leaders, both in the global commodity and capital markets, requires the creation of its own technological base, the transition to a new energy-saving, environmental-friendly national economic structure based on knowledge and new technologies, balancing the development levels of the country’s regions, and increasing the average per capita income of people.

Keywords: China, economy, foreign investment, capital market, internationalization of yuan, direct investment, portfolio investment, stock market, forex market, currency regulation


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For citation:
Potapov M., Kotlyarov N. China in Global Capital Markets. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2021, vol. 65, no. 8, pp. 81-89. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-8-81-89



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