U.S.–China: Mechanisms and Dynamics of Arms Race

155
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-42-50
K. Bogdanov (cbogdanov@imemo.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation;
M. Yevtodyeva (marianna133@mail.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation

Received 23.12.2020.

Acknowledgments. The article was prepared within the project “Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement ¹ 075-15-2020-783).


Abstract. The U.S.–China confrontation, generating a military technology race, has been gradually developed over a long period of time after the end of the Cold War. The mission of countering U.S. forces in a possible armed conflict in the Southeast Asian region has led China to adopt a “counter-intervention strategy”, better known by the designation “anti-access/area denial” (A2/AD). The U.S. responded by development of sea-based missile defense systems, which has dangerously damaged the military balance. The study shows that both countries independently faced the need to accelerate one of the most destabilizing types of modern weapons – hypersonic weapons – during this race that required specific military-technical solutions. The course of this arms race has led the U.S. to development of the “AirSea Battle” concept and then other more radical operational concepts, such as “distributed lethality”, requiring a complete step-by-step restructuring of the Navy. A study of the behavior of both powers shows that, at the present stage, the “arms race” is increasingly becoming a more complex process of “technological race”, in which it is at times difficult to distinguish the components of the dynamics of the civilian and military sectors of the economy and of advanced researches and developments. The U.S. adoption of the ambitious “Third Offset Strategy” program occurred simultaneously with the deployment of Chinese research in similar directions, including the improvement of command, control and communications systems, development of lethal autonomous weapons systems and military applications of artificial intelligence. One of the main questions in this regard is to what extent the U.S. dispersed model of innovation management can compete with the Chinese centralized model of “military-civil fusion” marked by its high ability to concentrate resources and at the same time – linkages with global markets through the national champion companies.

Keywords: A2/AD, hypersonic weapons, arms race, China, multidomain battle, emerging technologies, missile defense, the U.S., Third Offset Strategy


REFERENCES

1. Lippert B., Perthes V., eds. Strategic Rivalry Between United States and China: Causes, Trajectories, and Implications for Europe. SWP Research Paper no. 4. Berlin, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2020. 56 p.

2. Colby E.A., Wess Mitchell A. The Age of Great-Power Competition: How the Trump Administration Refashioned American Strategy. Foreign Affairs, 2020, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 118-130.

3. Vartazarova L.S. Kobrinskaya I.Ya., eds. USA–China: the Struggle of Two Strategies and Practices of World Leadership. Moscow, IMEMO, 2018. 65 p. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.20542/978-5-9535-0537-6

4. Schneider-Petsinger M. et al. US–China Strategic Competition: The Quest for Global Technological Leadership. London, Chatam House, 2019. 45 p.

5. Work R.O., Grant G. Beating the Americans at Their Own Game: An Offset Strategy with Chinese Characteristics. Washington, DC, Center for a New American Security, 2019. 24 p.

6. Godwin P. The PLA Faces the Twenty-First Century: Reflections on Technology, Doctrine, Strategy, and Operations. China’s Military Faces the Future. Lilley J.R., Shambaugh D., eds. New York, M. E. Sharpe, 1999, pp. 39-63.

7. Si-Fu O. China’s A2/AD and Its Geographic Perspective. Asia Pacific Research Forum, 2014, no. 60, pp. 81-124.

8. Cliff R. et al. Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States. Santa Monica, CA, RAND Corporation, 2007. 155 p.

9. Krepinevich A.F. Why AirSea Battle? Washington, DC, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2010. 52 p.

10. Kearne Jr.D.W. Air-Sea Battle and China’s Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenge. Orbis, Winter 2014, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 132-146.

11. Hutchens M.E. et al. Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons: A New Joint Operational Concept. Joint Force Quarterly, January 2017, no. 84, pp. 134-139.

12. Multi-Domain Battle: Evolution of Combined Arms for the 21st Century, 2025–2040. Fort Eustis, VA, US Army TRADOC, 2017. 79 p. Available at: https://theatrum-belli.com/multi-domain-battle-evolution-of-combined-arms-for-the-21st-century-2025-2040/ (accessed 07.12.2020).

13. Rowden T., Gumataotao P., Fanta P. Distributed Lethality. Proceedings, 2015, vol. 141/1/1343, pp. 18-23.

14. Cumings A. Distributed Lethality: China is Doing It Right. Center for International Maritime Security, February 26, 2016. Available at: http://cimsec.org/distributed-lethality-china-is-doing-it-right/22112 (accessed 07.12.2020).

15. Bogdanov K., Kramnik I. The Russian Navy in the 21st Century: The Legacy and the New Path. Arlington, VA, Center for Naval Analysis, 2018. 44 p.

16. Lind J. Keep, Toss, or Fix? Assessing US Alliances in East Asia. Sustainable Security: Rethinking American National Security Strategy. Suri J., Valentino B.A., eds. Corby, Oxford University Press, 2016, pp. 297-331.

17. Acton J. Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike. Washington, DC, Ñàrnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013. 216 p.

18. Zhao T. Conventional Challenges to Strategic Stability: Chinese Perceptions of Hypersonic Technology and the Security Dilemma. The End of Strategic Stability? Nuclear Weapons and the Challenge of Regional Rivalries. Rubin L., Stulberg A.N., eds. Washington, DC, Georgetown University Press, 2018, pp. 174-202.

19. Hagel C. Secretary of Defense Speech. Reagan National Defense Forum Keynote. Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Simi Valley, CA, November 15, 2014. Available at: https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Speeches/Speech/Article/606635/ (accessed 07.12.2020).

20. Ochmanek D. The Role of Maritime and Air Power in DoD’s Third Offset Strategy. Santa-Monica, CA, RAND Corporation, 2014. Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT400/CT420/RAND_CT420.pdf (accessed 07.12.2020).

21. Hicks K.H., Hunter A., eds. Assessing the Third Offset Strategy. Washington, DC, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2017. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-third-offset-strategy (accessed 07.12.2020).

22. Kofman M. It’s Time to Talk about A2/AD: Rethinking the Russian Military Challenge. War on the Rocks, 05.09.2019. Available at: https://warontherocks.com/2019/09/its-time-to-talk-about-a2-ad-rethinking-the-russian-military-challenge/ (accessed 07.12.2020).

23. Kofman M. Russian A2/AD: It is Not Overrated, Just Poorly Understood. Russian Military Analysis, January 25, 2020. Available at: https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2020/01/25/russian-a2-ad-it-is-not-overrated-just-poorly-understood/ (accessed 07.12.2020).

24. Kofman M. Russian Maritime “A2/AD”: Strengths and Weaknesses. Russian Military Analysis, January 29, 2020. Available at: https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2020/01/29/russian-maritime-a2-ad-strengths-and-weaknesses/ (accessed 07.12.2020).

25. Bitzinger R.A. US-China Competition, the Third Offset Strategy, and Implications for the Global Arms Industry. SITC Research Briefs, 2017, Series 9. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9140j98k (accessed 07.12.2020).

26. Kashin V. The PRC and the U.S. DoD Third Offset Strategy. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 25: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya i mirovaya politika, 2016, no. 3, pp. 52-71. (In Russ.)

27. Mori S. Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation in the Age of Defense Innovation: The Challenges and Opportunities of Strategic Competition with China. Strategic Japan Working Paper, Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 2018, pp. 4-5. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/180402_Strategic_Japan_Satoru_Mori_paper.pdf?Ye5Ij_WUpTZyYYWCWD9yAomgC_oeVyLb (accessed 07.12.2020).

28. Costello J., McReynolds J. China’s Strategic Support Force: A Force for a New Era. China Strategic Perspectives no. 13. Washington, DC, National Defense University Press, 2018. Available at: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/china/china-perspectives_13.pdf (accessed 07.12.2020).

29. Kania E. Battlefield Singularity: Artificial Intelligence, Military Revolution, and China’s Future Military Power. Washington, DC, Center for a New American Security, 2017. Available at: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/battlefield-singularity-artificial-intelligence-military-revolution-and-chinas-future-military-power (accessed 07.12.2020).


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Bogdanov K., Yevtodyeva M. U.S.–China: Mechanisms and Dynamics of Arms Race. World Eñonomy and International Relations, 2021, vol. 65, no. 6, pp. 42-50. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-6-42-50



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 10
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • The Indo-Pacific Region between the Challenges of Confrontation and Opportunities for Interaction  
  • Conflict in Ukraine and Strategic Transformation of U.S. Arctic Policy
  • Multilateral Development Banks in Polycentric World
  • Economic Relations of Russia with “Unfriendly” and “Friendly” Countries in 1995–2020
Announcement

Dear authors of the journal!

Please note that the author's copies of the issues in which your texts are published are kept in the editorial office for no more than one year. After this period expires, the editorial office has the right to dispose of unclaimed copies at its own discretion.

 

Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.