Central Europe in the Pandemic Era: First Economic Results

108
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-3-92-101
A. Chetverikova (chetverikova@imemo.ru), 
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation

Acknowledgements. The article was prepared within the project “Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation” supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement ¹ 075-15-2020-783).


Abstract. The article analyzes the response of the Visegrad Group countries to the 2020 pandemic. Measures are outlined that were taken by Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to support their economies, including efforts to stabilize labour markets and measures for several most affected sectors. The author assesses the main economic indicators of the Visegrad countries during the first half of 2020 in the light of the consequences of imposed restrictive measures. The reaction of the Visegrad economies to the pandemic correlates with the pan-European reaction. Special attention is paid to the condition of the foreign trade sector of the “four” members, which plays an important role in their economies. The dynamic of foreign trade relations of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic with the European Union and Russia during the pandemic is analyzed. Mutual trade flows within the Visegrad Group are evaluated in the light of opportunities to compensate downturns in other markets. Possible prospects for the development of the Visegrad Group after the pandemic are considered. The existing forecasts of the Group’s countries development are analyzed. The factors influencing the recovery process in the Visegrad countries are given. The consequences of COVID 19 will affect many sectors of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, which will not be able to cope with them without the EU support. Realization of opportunities including the emergence of more innovative elements in their economies that meet the challenges of the 21st century, will also depend on the members of the Visegrad Group themselves. 

Keywords: Visegrad Group, COVID-19, economic consequences, government measures, development forecasts


REFERENCES

  1. Shishelina L.N. Vishegradskie strany: otvetstvennost’ gosudarstva v bor’be s pandemiei. Analiticheskaya zapiska ¹ 11, 2020 (¹ 194) [Visegrad countries: state responsibility in the fight against the pandemic. Analytic note ¹ 11, 2020 (¹ 194)]. Moscow, IE RAS, 2020. 6 ð. Available at: http://instituteofeurope.ru/images/uploads/analitika/2020/an194.pdf (accessed 13.11.2020).
  2. Coronavirus Government Response Tracker. University of Oxford. Available at: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker (accessed 13.11.2020).
  3. Policy Measures Taken against the Spread and Impact of the Coronavirus – 12 October 2020. European Commission. Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs. 2020. 98 p. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/coronovirus_policy_measures_12_october.pdf (accessed 13.11.2020).
  4. Measures Adopted by the Czech Government against the Coronavirus. Government of the Czech Republic. Press Advisories, 03.11.2020. Available at: https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centrum/aktualne/measures-adopted-by-the-czech-government-against-coronavirus-180545/ (accessed 03.11.2020).
  5. Sapir A. Why Has COVID‑19 Hit Different European Union Economies so Differently? Policy Contribution, 2020, no. 18, pp. 1-13.
  6. Eurostat Database. Labour Productivity and Unit Labour Costs. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/NAMQ_10_LP_ULC__custom_86177/bookmark/table?lang=en&bookmarkId=de0891f3-ebe8-4977-b038-7399f0f3a42e (accessed 03.11.2020).
  7. Gross Domestic Product in the 2nd Quarter of 2020. Bratislava, Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, 04.09.2020. 1 p.
  8. Public Opinion in the European Union. Annex. European Commission, Standard Eurobarometer 93, Summer 2020. 178 p. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/instruments/standard/surveyky/2262 (accessed 13.11.2020).
  9. Elteto A. Coronavirus Crisis – Trade Effects for the Iberian and Visegrad Countries. Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Institute of World Economics. Working Paper no. 260. May 2020. 33 ð. Available at: https://visegrad-coetus.pl/lib/jezext/200511_WP260_Elteto_Corona_Iberia_V4-kb0jja7d.pdf (accessed 13.11.2020).
  10. Chetverikova A.S. Predely ekonomicheskikh vzaimosvyazei Vishegradskoi gruppy [The Limits of economic relations of the Visegrad Group]. Analiz i prognoz. Zhurnal IMEMO RAN, 2020, no. 2, ðð. 87-97. DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-2-87-97
  11. Orlik I.I. Differentsiatsiya Central’no-Vostochnoi Evropy i otnosheniya s Rossiei [Differentiation of Central and Eastern Europe and relation with Russia]. Moscow, IE RAS, 2015. 50 ð.
  12. Kulikova N.V., Sinitsina I.S. Torgovye otnosheniya Rossii so stranami Central’no-Vostochnoi Evropy [Trade Relations Between Russia and Central-Eastern European Countries]. Sovremennaya Evropa, 2019, no. 3, pp. 150-160. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope32019150160
  13. Macroeconomic Forecast. Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic. Available at: https://www.mfsr.sk/en/finance/institute-financial-policy/economic-forecasts/macroeconomic-forecasts/#collapse‑332851592408307174 (accessed 03.11.2020).
  14. Macroeconomic Forecast of the Czech Republic. Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, September 2020. 56 p. Available at: https://www.mfcr.cz/en/statistics/macroeconomic-forecast/2020/macroeconomic-forecast-september-2020-39480 (accessed 03.11.2020).
  15. Macroeconomic outlook in inflation report – September 2020. The Central Bank of Hungary. 2020. 39 p. (In Hung.) Available at: https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/elemzo-prezentacio-szeptember-final.pdf (accessed 03.11.2020).
  16. Macroeconomic forecasts of professional forecasters. Results of the Macroeconomic Survey. NBP Round: September 2020, no. 3/2020. National Bank of Poland, 2020. 19 p. (In Polish) Available at: https://www.nbp.pl/statystyka/amakro/am2020q3.pdf (accessed 03.11.2020).
  17. Shishelina L.N. Uspekh Vishegradskikh stran na postkovidnom sammite ES [Success of Visegrad Countries in the first Post-COVID Summit of the EU]. Nauchno-analiticheskii vestnik IE RAN, 2020, no. 4, pp. 51-57. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/vestnikieran420205157
  18. COVID19: the EU’s Response to the Economic Fallout. European Council, 2020. Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/covid-19-economy/ (accessed 13.11.2020).
  19. COVID19: Council Agrees its Position on the Recovery and Resilience Facility. European Council Press Release, 09.10.2020. Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/10/09/covid-19-council-agrees-its-position-on-the-recovery-and-resilience-facility/ (accessed 13.11.2020).
  20. EU Countries Warn up Recovery Fund Engine. Euractive Network, 16.10.2020. Available at: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/eu-countries-warm-up-recovery-fund-engine/ (accessed 13.11.2020).
  21. Lifting COVID19 Measures May Hit Resilient Eastern EU. Oxford Analytica Expert Briefings, 2020. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB254471 (accessed 13.11.2020).
  22. Jorda O., Singh S.R., Taylor A.M. Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics. Working Paper 26934. Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2020. 22 p. Available at: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26934/w26934.pdf (accessed 13.11.2020).

Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Chetverikova A. Central Europe in the Pandemic Era: First Economic Results. World Eñonomy and International Relations, 2021, vol. 65, no. 3, pp. 92-101. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-3-92-101



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 12
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Mechanisms of International Financial Relations in the Conditions of Globalization Crisis  
  • “New” Militarization of Europe?
  • Foreign Economic Policy of Germany: African Vector
  • Transformation of the Conflict Field in Abkhazia: Contemporary Politics and Historical Context
Announcement

Dear authors of the journal!

Please note that the author's copies of the issues in which your texts are published are kept in the editorial office for no more than one year. After this period expires, the editorial office has the right to dispose of unclaimed copies at its own discretion.

 

Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.