
Abstract. The article is devoted to analysis of terrorist threats in Afghanistan and Pakistan, identifies their similar external and essential characteristics. Afghanistan is remarkable for the highest level of terrorist threats. Drivers of terrorist activity are the Taliban insurgency, more than 20 radical Islamist groups affiliated with Al-Qaida and partly with ISIL. Relying on the Afghan Taliban cooperation, Al-Qaida tries to regain its position in Afghanistan. Radical groups, consisting of foreign terrorist fighters are active in eastern, north-eastern and northern provinces of Afghanistan. Strengthening of the radical groups in the northern part of Afghanistan is a potential threat to the states of Central Asia. It can encourage the dissemination of extremist ideology in the region. Despite heavy casualties, ISIL tries not to lean back in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s security is tied with the situation in Afghanistan. The terrorist elements operating in Af-Pak region always played a major role in destabilization of the country. The paper also highlights that increasing presence of militant groups in Pakistan contributed to the deepening of religious differences in Pakistani society. The presence of the supporters of Al-Qaida in the region also complicates the security situation in Pakistan. The author emphasizes existing trend of cultivation of extremist ideologies to get political support of conservative hardliners and to flirt with extremist groups in Pakistan’s ruling circles. In recent years Islamabad could decrease the level of terrorist threats in Pakistan by conducting major military operations.
Keywords: Afghanistan, Pakistan, terrorist threats, ISIL, Al-Qaida, extremist groups, foreign terrorist fighters
REFERENCES
- Belokrenickii V. Islam i islamskii radikalizm v Pakistane [Islam and Islamist Radicalism in Pakistan]. Eastern Analytics, 2015, no. 3, pp. 20-29.
- Belokrenickii V.Ya., Sikoev R.R. Dvizhenie Taliban i perspektivy Afganistana i Pakistana [The Taliban Movement and the Perspectives of Afghanistan and Pakistan]. Moscow, IOS RAS, 2014. 216 p.
- Zamaraeva N. Usilenie islamskogo ekstremizma v Pakistane v 2008–2010 gg. [The rise of the Islamic extremism in Pakistan (2008–2010)]. Musulmanskoe prostranstvo po perimetru granits Kavkaza I Tsentralnoy Azii [Muslim space along the perimeter of the borders of the Caucasus and Central Asia]. Belokrenickii V.Ya., Ul’chenko N.Yu. eds. Moscow, IOS RAS, 2012, pp. 179-201.
- Stepanova E. Faktor IGIL i dvizhenie Taliban v politike Rossii po Afganistanu i v bolee shirokom regione [The ISIS factor and the Taliban movement in Russia’s policy on Afghanistan and in the broader region]. Pathways to Peace and Security, 2017, no. 1 (52), pp. 213-237. Special Issue: Addressing Terrorism, Violent Extremism and Radicalization (perspectives from Russia and the United States). DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2017-1-213-237
- Martynkin A., Khomenko S. Rol’ islama vo vnutriafganskom konflikte v poslednei chetverti XX – nachale XXI vekov [The role of Islam in the intra-Afghan conflict in the last quarter of the XX – early XXI centuries]. Central Asia and The Caucasus, 2014, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 144-155.
- Ganiev T.A., Karyakin V.V. Voenno-politicheskaya obstanovka v Islamskoi Respublike Afganistan i ee vliyanie na bezopasnost’ Tsentral’no-Aziatskogo regiona SNG [The Military-political Situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and Its Impact on the Security of the Central Asian Region of the CIS]. Arkhot, 2018, no. 5 (8), pp. 12-20.
- Clayton T. Al Qaeda and Islamic State Affiliates in Afghanistan. Congressional Research Service. Washington, D.C., June 24, 2020. Available at: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10604 (accessed 20.07.2020).
- Clayton T. Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy in Brief. Congressional Research Service. Washington, D.C., December 5, 2019. Available at: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45122/34 (accessed 15.01.2020).
- Rubin B.R., Saikal A., Lindley-French J. The Way Forward in Afghanistan: Three Views. Survival, 2009, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 83-96. Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00396330902749707 (accessed 06.10.2020).
- Joscelyn T., Roggio B. Taliban continues to host foreign terrorist groups, despite assurances to the contrary. FDD’s Long War Journal, USA, February 7, 2019. Available at: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/02/taliban-continues-to-host-foreign-terrorist-groups-despite-assurances-to-the-contrary.php/ (accessed 15.01.2020).
- Adilkhodzaeva S.Ì. Obostrenie situatsii v Afganistane: novye ugrozy miru i puti ikh predotvrashcheniia [The Aggravation of the Situation in Afghanistan: New Threats to Peace and the Ways of their Prevention]. Comparative Politics, 2017, no. 4, pp. 73-82. DOI: 10.18611/2221-3279-2017-8-4-73-82
- Khan H.U. Regional Security Threats to CPEC: A Strategic Overview. Journal of the Research Society of Pakistan, 2019, vol. 56, no. 1, pp. 181-189. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335095537_Regional_Security_Threats_to_CPEC_A_Strategic_Overview (accessed 24.12.2019).
- Tanzeem A. Pakistan Dismantles Al-Qaida’s Main Regional Network. VOA News, Islamabad, February 12, 2016. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/pakistan-dismantles-al-qaidas-main-regional-network/ (accessed 15.01.2020).
- Rana M.A. What ISIS and the ‘caliphate’ mean for Pakistan. Dawn, Islamabad, July 3, 2014. Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1116799/ (accessed 15.01.2020).
- Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent. Stanford University. USA, July, 2018. Available at: https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/al-qaeda-indian-subcontinent-aqis/ (accessed 15.01.2020).
- Weiss C. Uzbek group shows ambush in northern Afghanistan. FDD’s Long War Journal, USA, January 25, 2018. Available at: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/01/uzbek-group-shows-ambush-in-northern-afghanistan.php/ (accessed 15.01.2020).
- Eleventh report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2501 (2019) concerning the Taliban and other associated individuals and entities constituting a threat to the peace, stability and security of Afghanistan. S/2020/415, UN Security Council. New York, May 27, 2020. Available at: https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2020_415_e.pdf (accessed 09.12.2020).
- Treasury Designates ISIS Financial, Procurement, and Recruitment Networks in the Middle East and South Asia. US Department of the Treasury. Washington, D.C., November 18, 2019. Available at: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm831/ (accessed 10.12.2019).
- Afghanistan, Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, Annual Report 2018. UNAMA, United Nations. New York, February 24, 2019. Available at: https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/afghanistan_protection_of_civilians_annual_report_2018_final_24_feb_2019_v3.pdf (accessed 16.01.2020).
- Terrorism Related Fatalities in Afghanistan. South Asia Terrorism Portal, Institute for Conflict Management. New Delhi, July 18, 2020. Available at: https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/fatalities/afghanistan (accessed 19.07.2020).
- Marcus J. Why Saudi Arabia and Iran are bitter rivals. BBC News, September 16, 2019. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42008809/ (accessed 15. 01.2020).
- Gul A. Pakistan Warns of Islamic State’s Growing Reach. VOA News, Washington, D.C., February 10, 2016. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/east-asia/pakistan-warns-islamic-states-growing-reach (accessed 29.12.2019).
- Gabol I. 42 IS supporters arrested in Punjab: Rana Sanaullah. Dawn, Islamabad, January 4, 2016. Available at: https://www.dawn.com/news/1230719/ (accessed 15.01.2020).
- Masood S. Pakistan Shrine Bombing Kills Scores in Worst Attack in Months. New York Times, February 17, 2017. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/16/world/asia/pakistan-shrine-bombing.html/ (accessed 18.07.2020).
- Terrorism Related Fatalities in Pakistan. South Asia Terrorism Portal, Institute for Conflict Management. New Delhi, July 18, 2020. Available at: https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-attack/fatalities/pakistan (accessed 19.07.2020).
- Country Reports on Terrorism 2019. U.S. Department of State. Washington, D.C., June, 2020. Available at: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Country-Reports-on-Terrorism-2019-2.pdf (accessed 18.07.2020).
- Global Terrorism Index 2019: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism. Institute for Economics & Peace, Sydney, November 2019. Available at: https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GTI-2019web.pdf (accessed 09.12.2020).
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX
No comments