Russian Policy in the Balkans: Current Situation and Perspectives

182
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-1-90-99
K. Khudoley (k.khudoley@spbu.ru),
St. Petersburg State University, 7/9, Universitetskaya Emb., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation;
E. Koloskov (e.koloskov@spbu.ru),
St. Petersburg State University, 7/9, Universitetskaya Emb., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

Abstract. The article discusses the current situation and prospects of Russian policy in the Balkans. Officially, today, the Balkans are not assigned to the priorities of the Russian foreign policy, but there is one of the lines of the “Cool War” against the West. It is Russia’s desire to oppose the expansion of NATO and the EU, to create an infrastructure for the transportation of energy resources; it is also the emergence of sanctions and counter-sanctions. The purpose of this article is to characterize the foreign policy of the Russian Federation in the Balkans in the context of the current confrontation between Russia and the West. The authors try to identify possible scenarios for further development of international relations in the region. The term “Cool War” is used as the most accurate for characterizing the confrontation between Russia and the West, because – the authors believe – it differs from the “Cold War” in content, directions and its severity, although it is waged with the same methods and tools. The analysis of the Russian foreign policy in the Balkans and the method of constructing scenarios are used in the article as a research methodology. In this paper, five groups of states are distinguished in the Balkans according to their relations with Russia. Also it is assumed that three scenarios are possible in the future: weakening of Russia’s position, its maintaining at the current level, and its strengthening. This will largely depend on the confrontation degree and Russia’s activity, especially in the economic and humanitarian spheres.

Keywords: foreign policy of Russia, Balkans, “Cool War”, USA, NATO, European Union, China, Serbia


REFERENCES

  1. Kandel’ P. Zapadnye Balkany i transformatsiya ES [Western Balkans and the Transformation of the EU]. Gromyko Al.A., Fedorova V.P., eds. Evropa mezhdu trekh okeanov [Europe between Three Oceans]. Moscow, Nestor-Istoriya, 2019, pp. 235-256.
  2. Ponomareva E.G. Balkanskii rubezh Rossii. Vremya sobirat’ kamni [Balkan Border of Russia. Time to Collect Stones]. Moscow, Knizhnyi mir, 2018. 320 p.
  3. Entina E., Pivovarenko A. Russia’s Foreign Policy Evolution in the New Balkan Landscape. Politička misao: časopis za politologiju, 2019, vol. 56, no. 3–4, pp. 179-199. DOI: 10.20901/pm.56.3-4.08
  4. Kovačević M. Understanding the Marginality Constellations of Small States: Serbia, Croatia, and the Crisis of EU–Russia Relations. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 2019, vol. 27, iss. 4 (December), p. 409-423.
  5. Bechev D. Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe. Yale, University Press, 2017. 320 p.
  6. Samorukov M. Can Russia and the EU Overcome Their Differences in the Balkans? Available at: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/78128 (accessed 17.03.2020).
  7. Ezernik B. Dikaya Evropa [Wild Europe]. Moscow, Lingvistika, 2017. 358 p.
  8. Strategic Plan 2019–2021 (In Mac.) Available at: https://www.mfa.gov.mk/en/document/469 (accessed 20.03.2020).
  9. Great Soviet Encyclopedia. Moscow, Sovetskaya entsiklopediya, 1926. 800 p. (In Russ.)
  10. Balkan Peninsula (In Russ.) Available at: https://bigenc.ru/geography/text/5661870 (accessed 20.03.2020).
  11. Central and Southeast Europe. The End of XX – Beginning of XXI Centuries. Aspects of Socio-Political Development. Historical and Political Reference Book. Moscow, Sankt-Petersburg, Nestor-Istoriya, 2015. 480 p. (In Russ.)
  12. Working Visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the Republic of Slovenia. Available at: https://www.mid.ru/web/guest/maps/si/-/asset_publisher/WoZiTN0Oqzhu/content/id/209794?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_WoZiTN0Oqzhu&_101_INSTANCE_WoZiTN0Oqzhu_languageId=en_GB (accessed 21.03.2020).
  13. Ceremony to Launch TurkStream Gas Pipeline. Available at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62553 (accessed 21.03.2020).
  14. Jirušek . Politicization in the Natural Gas Sector in South-Eastern Europe: Thing of the Past or Vivid Present? Brno, Masarykova univerzita, 2018. 288 p.
  15. Special Review of the Russian Oil Market (In Russ.) Available at: https://www.argusmedia.com/-/media/Files/white-papers/fsu/published/russian-crude-market-special-report.ashx (accessed 15.03.2020).
  16. Western Balkans Regional Poll. February 2, 2020 – March 6, 2020. Center for Insights in Survey Research. Available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20200719072952/https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/final_wb_poll_for_publishing_6.9.2020.pdf (accessed 20.03.2020).
  17. Russia and Putin Receive Low Ratings Globally. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/russia-and-putin-receive-low-ratings-globally/ (accessed 20.03.2020).
  18. Vučić verovatno pre izbora sa Putinom. [Vucic Was Probably Negotiating with Putin (In Serb.)] Available at: http://www.politika.rs/sr/clanak/376540/Vucic-verovatno-pre-izbora-sa-Putinom (accessed 15.03.2020).
  19. Vuksanovic V. Serbs Are Not “Little Russians”. The American Interest, July 26, 2018. Available at: https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/07/26/serbs-are-not-little-russians/ (accessed 15.03.2020).
  20. Russian and Serbian Military Departments Interaction Reaches New Level. Available at: http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12276399@egNews (accessed 15.03.2020).
  21. The Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation. July 15, 2008. (In Russ.) Available at: http://kremlin.ru/acts/news/785 (accessed 15.03.2020).
  22. Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation. 18 February 2013. Available at: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/122186?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_CptICkB6BZ29&_101_INSTANCE_CptICkB6BZ29_languageId=en_GB (accessed 15.03.2020).
  23. South Stream Will Ensure Reliable Russian Gas Supplies to Main Consumers in Europe. Available at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17086 (accessed 21.03.2020).
  24. Telephone Conversations with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and President of Serbia Tomislav Nikolic. Available at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47187 (accessed 21.03.2020).
  25. Vaksberg T. The End of the Secrets around the South Stream (In Bulg.) Available at: https://p.dw.com/p/1Bwre (accessed 15.03.2020).
  26. Pećinar A. The Paris Peace Conference – Contemporary Balkans’ Perspective. . , 2019, . 12, . 3, cc. 327-339. [Pećinar A. The Paris Peace Conference – Contemporary Balkans’ Perspective. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International Relations, 2019, vol. 12, iss. 3, pp. 327-339.]
  27. Russian Foreign Trade (In Russ.) Available at: https://russian-trade.com/ (accessed 20.03.2020).
  28. Skopje Rejects Russian Invitation to Join Eurasian Economic Union. Available at: http://www.gazetatema.net/en/skopje-rejects-russian-invitation-to-join-eurasian-economic-union/ (accessed 15.03.2020).
  29. Andreev A. Why Lavrov Discusses Macedonia’s Partition – Only Between Bulgaria and Albania? Deutsche Welle, 21.05.2015. (In Bulg.) Available at: https://p.dw.com/p/1FTbu (accessed on 20.03.2020).
  30. Dacic: Putin’s Visit Is Support, We Are Also Waiting for Macron, We Have Sent an Invitation to Trump as Well. Novosti, 06.01.2019. (In Serb.) Available at: https://www.novosti.rs/vesti/naslovna/politika/aktuelno.289.html:770043-Dacic-Putinova-poseta-podrska-cekamo-i-Makrona-uputili-smo-poziv-i-Trampu (accessed on 15.03.2020).
  31. Milo . The Great Powers and the Albanian Question. (In Alban.) Available at: http://www.panorama.com.al/fuqite-e-medha-dhe-ceshtja-shqiptare/ (accessed 15.03.2020).
  32. Diplomatic Tensions Between Bulgaria and Serbia. Available at: https://www.novinite.com/articles/198371/Diplomatic+Tensions+Between+Bulgaria+and+Serbia (accessed 20.03.2020).
  33. Defence Ministry Board Meeting. Available at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59431 (accessed 20.03.2020).
  34. Agumava F. Vladimir Dzhabarov: Rumynii nuzhno prigrozit’ sanktsiyami [Vladimir Dzhabarov: Romania Should be Threatened with Sanctions] Available at: https://www.pnp.ru/politics/vladimir-dzhabarov-rumynii-nuzhno-prigrozit-sankciyami.html (accessed 20.03.2020).
  35. Makhmutai N.M. Sovremennoe sostoyanie albansko-rossiiskikh otnoshenii v politicheskoi sfere [The Current Albanian-Russian Relations in the Political Sphere]. Vlast’, 2019, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 260-270. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31171/vlast.v27i4.6640.

Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Khudoley K., Koloskov E. Russian Policy in the Balkans: Current Situation and Perspectives. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2021, vol. 65, No 1, pp. 90-99. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-1-90-99



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Current Issue
2023, vol. 67, No. 3
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Tax Instruments to Stimulate Innovations in EU Countries 
  • Russia and Western Balkans: Realized and Missed Opportunities in Trade
  • Spanish Society: Stable Instability 
  • ASEAN and the Myanmar Dilemma 
  • Greater Middle East
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.