Abstract. In the initial period of the COVID 19 pandemic (February–September 2020), Japan succeeded in minimizing the mortality rate and reducing the damage to the economy. The Japanese experience has both positive and negative aspects. Among the G7 countries, Japan recorded the best иге among the states of East Asia the worst indicators of overall and excessive mortality. From an economic perspective, the pandemic strongly affected inbound and outbound tourism, which will take years to recover. Employment opportunities in the tourism and other contact-intensive industries will be reduced by approximately one million jobs, primarily affecting part time and temporary workers. At the same time, the overall unemployment rate will hardly exceed one-third of the OECD average generally because of the ample financial support, long-term commitments among core employees in Japan, and job retention practices of domestic companies. In the macroeconomic realm, the Japanese government embarked on an extension of quantitatively easing measures of monetary expansionary steps in fiscal sphere and universal stimulus in growth-enhancing structural policies. This approach actually follows the logic of a long-standing reflationary Abenomics, which is expected to continue despite the abrupt resignation of S. Abe. At least, Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Yo. Suga has indicated his support for current monetary and fiscal policies. He also hinted at a need to reduce the administrative red tape and to accelerate the digitalization in the economy. The package of anti-crisis measures in Japan turned out to be one of the largest in the world, and its implementation could increase the budget deficit and public debt, that is, cause the emergence of problems relevant to most other countries.
Keywords: Japan, economy, healthcare system, COVID 19 pandemic, economic policy, government, fiscal measures, budget deficit
REFERENCES
- 我が国における超過死亡の推定. [Estimation of Excess Mortality in Japan. National Institute of Infectious Disease (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/from-idsc/493-guidelines/9748-excess-mortality-20jul.html (accessed 03.09.2020).
- パンデミック 激動の世界1 ウイルス襲来 瀬戸際の132日. [Pandemic: World of Turbulence‑1. Virus Invasion. 132 Days on the Edge. NHK (In Jap.)] Available at: http://www2.nhk.or.jp/hensei/program/p.cgi?area=001&date=2020-08-29&ch=21&eid=15471&f=46 (accessed 30.08.2020).
- Kasuya T., Tung H. Taiwan Has a Lot to Teach Japan about Coronavirus Response. Available at: https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Taiwan-has-a-lot-to-teach-Japan-about-coronavirus-response (accessed 04.08.2020).
- Taleb N. The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. London, Penguin, 2010. 400 p.
- O’Shea T. Black Elephants, Black Swans, and Tomorrow’s Fish. Available at: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/black-elephants-black-swa_b_6240540 (accessed 04.08.2020).
- IMF. World Economic Outlook Update. June 2020. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020 (accessed 17.09.2020).
- 2019 年 10–12 月期GDP速報(2 次速報値). [October–December 2019 GDP Preliminary Report (Secondary Data). Cabinet Office Economic and Social Research Institute (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/sokuhou/files/2019/qe194_2/pdf/qepoint1942.pdf (accessed 03.08.2020).
- 2020 年 4–6 月期GDP速報(2 次速報値). [April–June 2020 GDP Preliminary Report (Secondary Data). (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/sokuhou/files/2020/qe202_2/pdf/qepoint2022.pdf (accessed 17.09.2020).
- 景気動向指数(令和 2(2020)年 7 月分速報). [Index of Business Conditions. July 2020, preliminary. Cabinet Office (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/stat/di/202007psummary.pdf (accessed 17.09.2020).
- 短観(要旨)(2020年6月). [Tankan Outline (June 2020). Bank of Japan (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/tk/yoshi/tk2006.htm/ (accessed 03.08.2020).
- 月例経済速報(令和2年8月). [Monthly Economic Report. July 2020. Cabinet Office (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/getsurei/2020/0827getsurei/main.pdf (accessed 17.09.2020).
- 数字が語る旅行業2020. [Travel Industry 2020 in Numbers. Japan Association of Travel Agents (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.jata-net.or.jp/membership/purchase/200629_sjhnpinfo.html (accessed 03.08.2020).
- 観光産業で今起きていること、今後の打ち手は? [What Is Happening in the Tourism Industry and what Are Your Future Plans? (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.travelvoice.jp/20200610-146276 (accessed 03.08.2020).
- Kajimoto T. Japan Firms See No Immediate Fix for Virus Pain, Some Eye Better Productivity: Reuters Poll. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-companies-po/japan-firms-see-no-immediate-fix-for-virus-pain-some-eye-better-productivity-reuters-poll-idUSKCN24G395 (accessed 03.08.2020).
- 労働力調査2020年(令和2年)8月分. [Labor Force Survey. July 2020. Statistics Bureau of Japan (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/sokuhou/tsuki/pdf/gaiyou.pdf (accessed 17.09.2020).
- OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020, Issue 1. Available at: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook/volume-2020/issue-1_0d1d1e2e-en (accessed 03.09.2020).
- Ito T., Hoshi T. The Japanese Economy. Cambridge, MIT Press, 2020. 616 p.
- 事業規模 233.9 兆円. [Hoshino T. Scale of Support Equals 233.9 Trillion Yen. Economic Trends, May 28, 2020 (In Jap.)] Available at: http://group.dai-ichi-life.co.jp/dlri/pdf/macro/2020/hoshi200528.pdf (accessed 03.08.2020).
- 令和2年第 13 回経済財政諮問会議議事要旨. [Economic and Fiscal Advisory Council Materials (2020) (In Jap.)] Available at: https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai-shimon/kaigi/minutes/2020/0731/gijiyoushi.pdf (accessed 03.08.2020).
- Du L., Lee M.J., Nakamichi T., Taniguchi T. Hedge Funds Say there’s no Turning Back on Abe’s Japan Reforms. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-07/hedge-funds-say-there-s-no-turning-back-on-abe-s-japan-reforms (accessed 17.09.2020).
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX
No comments