International Role of Euro and European Integration

159
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-33-41
A. Polivach (apolivach@imemo.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation

Abstract. The euro was introduced 20 years ago and then quickly and confidently took the place of the second important global currency. In that times there were a number of works forecasting that the euro in the next 10–15 years may surpass the US dollar as the dominant global currency. By now, usage of the euro in the world is significantly wider than the next currencies, the pound and the yen. However, the US dollar is still much more popular. Moreover, in the last decade we noticed a slowdown in the usage of the euro worldwide and even a decrease in some segments in favour of the dollar. Therefore, this article investigates factors that may be causes of this slowdown. The most popular factors determining prospects of currency internationalization are the market share of an exporting country and differentiation of its export goods. As differentiation of the goods exported from the USA and from the euro zone is in general similar, so the author first checks their market shares dynamics. Despite both economies were losing their market shares in the last 20 years still volumes of the exports from the euro zone was always much bigger than from the USA. The ratio even increased from 1.28 in 1999 to 1.67 in 2017 in favour of the euro zone. However, the usage of the euro slightly declined in the last decade. Therefore, new factors should be taken into consideration. They include volume of imports (as we consider this is a natural and easiest way for a currency to migrate into international usage), size of GDP (as it influences on the size of imports), cumulative total sales of the largest transnational corporations (TNCs) and cumulative total assets of the largest transnational financial institutions (TNF). Given their exceptional size and global operations, the last two can seriously increase or decrease usage of particular currencies worldwide. We found that the dynamics of all four new factors were quite in line with the progress of the international role of the euro. During the 13 years of 20, the imports to the euro zone were smaller than to the USA, including the last five years. The GDP of the euro zone was always smaller than the USA’s one. Though its dynamics in 2000–2008 gave a chance and the euro zone was about to catch the level of the USA, but then the US GDP more and more surpassing it. In addition, the cumulative sales of the largest TNCs headquartered in the euro zone surpassed their competitors headquartered in the USA in 2005–2013 and then the US TNCs took the lead. Cumulative assets of the largest TNFs from the euro zone were always larger than the US TNFs. However, from 2010 the latter were narrowing the gap. Additional factor emerged in the last decade was a quick growth of Chinese TNFs, which became the largest in the world. As Chinese corporations prefer to work with the dollar, so this was a negative factor for the euro. Also, statistics show that possible participation of the UK in the euro zone might have reverted all the above factors in favour of the euro zone. As there is no evidence that considered factors will change, so it looks that now the euro is near its maximum playing the international role. Unless unprecedented actions will be taken by the European Union, there are no chances for the euro to surpass the US Dollar in the foreseeable future.

Keywords: euro, dollar, global currency, export, import, transnational corporations


REFERENCES

1. Bacchetta P., van Wincoop E. A Theory of The Currency Denomination of International Trade. ECB Working Paper No. 177, 2002. 51 p. Available at: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp177.pdf (accessed 17.10.2017).

2. Strengthening the International Role of the Euro. European Commission, 2019. 29 p. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/strengthening-international-role-euro-swd‑2019_en.pdf (accessed 20.12.2019).

3. Gopinath G. The International Price System. NBER Working Paper No. 21646, 2015. 59 p. Available at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w21646.pdf (accessed 27.03.2017).

4. Butorina O.V. Ekonomicheskaya istoriya euro [Economic history of the euro]. Moscow, Ves’ Mir, 2020. 576 p.

5. Eichengreen B. Sterling’s Past, Dollar’s Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition. NBER Working Paper No. 11336, 2005. 29 p. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11336 (accessed 21.06.2009).

6. Chinn M.D., Frankel J.A. The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency. NBER Working Paper No. 13909, 2008. 24 p. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13909 (accessed 26.03.2010).

7. Gasparotti A., Kullas M. 20 Years of the Euro: Winners and Losers. Centre for European Policy, 2019. 18 p. Available at: https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html (accessed 26.10.2019).

8. Pishchik V., Kuznetsov A., Alekseev P. Evropeiskii ekonomicheskii i valyutnyi soyuz: 20 let spustya [European Economic and Monetary Union: 20 Years After]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2019, no. 9, pp. 76-85. Available at: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-9-76-85 (accessed 05.01.2020).

9. Worldwide Currency Usage and Trends. SWIFT, 2015. 20 p. Available at: https://www.swift.com/sites/default/files/resources/swift_bi_currency_evolution_infopaper_57128.pdf (accessed 25.09.2018).

10. Direction of Trade Statistics Dataset (DOTS). International Monetary Fund. Available at: http://data.imf.org/ (accessed 05.01.2020).

11. International Financial Statistics Dataset (IFS). International Monetary Fund. Available at: http://data.imf.org/ (accessed 05.01.2020).

12. Ilzetzki E., Reinhart C.M., Rogoff K.S. Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: which Anchor Will Hold? NBER Working Paper No. 23134, 2017. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23134 (accessed 15.01.2018).

13. IMF DataMapper. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO (accessed 10.01.2020).

14. Towards a Stronger International Role of the Euro. Brussels, European Commission, 2018. 15 p. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/towards-stronger-international-role-euro-commission-contribution-european-council-13-14-december-2018_en (accessed 20.12.2019).

15. UNCTAD. World Investment Reports for 1997, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019. Available at: https://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/World_Investment_Report.aspx (accessed 14.01.2020).

16. Global‑2000 World’s Largest Public Companies. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/global2000/list/ (accessed 20.01.2020).


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Polivach A. International Role of Euro and European Integration. World Eñonomy and International Relations, 2020, vol. 64, no. 5, pp. 33-41. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-33-41



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 11
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • U.S. Protectionism Against China’s Mercantilism  
  • U.S. Military Cooperation with Its Allies in Northeast Asia 
  • Russia Under the Conditions of Global Economy Regionalization
  • Greater Middle East
Announcement

Dear authors of the journal!

Please note that the author's copies of the issues in which your texts are published are kept in the editorial office for no more than one year. After this period expires, the editorial office has the right to dispose of unclaimed copies at its own discretion.

 

Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.