400P. Yakovlev (petrp.yakovlev@yandex.ru),
Institute of Latin American Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ILA RAN), 21/16, Bol’shaya Ordynka Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation;
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 36, Stremyanny Per., Moscow, 115054, Russian Federation
Abstract. Today, a decade after the 2008–2009 global crisis, the outlook for the global economy is still uncertain, as not all the economic wounds left by the crisis have been fully delayed, and its effects continue to have a profound and far-reaching impact on the world economic system. It is also obvious that under the influence of current scientific and technological changes and in the context of shifts in the international strategic balance of power, the global trade and economic architecture is significantly transformed. The process of globalization, which has defined the vector of world development in recent decades, is changing. The key question is in what directions, at what pace and with what risks the transformational trends that have already begun will develop, and what will they bring to the international community. In this regard, many experts representing prestigious supranational organizations and leading Think Tanks express reasonable concerns on the imminent onset of a global recession, which could develop into a new global crisis. There is no need to prove the pernicious nature of development under such a scenario, so preventing such a course of events and neutralizing emerging risks is one of the most important strategic objectives of the international agenda. In other words, according to the author, the aim of the international community should be to coordinate and synchronize actions aimed at neutralizing all sorts of negative trends of recent times that undermine the sustainability of the global economy and world trade, which ultimately generates more and more geopolitical threats. It is critical that joint efforts must be taken to close the cracks in the system of international economic relations.
Keywords: the consequences of global crisis, the slowdown in global growth, trade wars, financial instability, the threat of recession
REFERENCES
1. Georgieva K., IMF Managing Director. Decelerating Growth Calls for Accelerating Action. 08.10.2019. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/10/03/sp100819-AMs2019-Curtain-Raiser (accessed 19.10.2019).
2. Dynkin A., ed. The World of 2035. Global Outlook. Moscow, Magister, 2018. 304 p.
3. Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Says Global Economy Faces ‘Scary Situation’. 29.10.2019. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-10-29/dalio-says-global-economy-faces-scary-situation-video (accessed 30.10.2019).
4. Friedman T. The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. New York, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005. 439 p.
5. James H. The New Backlash against Globalization. 07.06.2016. Available at: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-backlash-against-globalization-by-harold-james-2016-06?barrier=accesspaylog (accessed 29.10.2019).
6. Taleb N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York, Random House, 2007. 400 p.
7. Zibert Kh. Effekt kobry. Kak mozhno izbezhat’ zabluzhdenii v ekonomicheskoi politike [The Cobra Effect. How to Avoid Misconceptions in Economic Policy]. S.-Peterburg, SPbGUJeF, 2003. 244 p.
8. Posen A.S. The Future of the Global Economy: Integration or Fragmentation? Available at: https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/future-global-economy-integration-or-fragmentation (accessed 28.10.2019).
9. Yakovlev P. Rusia y Espana: de la Asociacion estrategica al Partenariado para la modernizacion. Iberoamerica, 2011, ¹ 2, pp. 47-67.
10. Pisani-Ferry J. Adios a la econonia plana. El Economista, Madrid, 17.08.2019. Available at: https://qoshe.com/eleconomista/jean-pisani-ferry/adi-s-a-la-econom-a-plana/46921207 (accessed 29.10.2019).
11. Piketty T. Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge, London, The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014. 685 p.
12. Georgieva K. Opening Remarks for Annual Meetings Press Conference. 17.10.2019. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/10/17/sp101719-opening-remarks-for-annual-meetings-press-conference (accessed 21.10.2019).
13. IMF. World Economic Outlook, October 2019: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers. Washington, World Bank, 2019. 187 p.
14. Yakovlev P. P. “Effekt Trampa” ili konets globalizatsii? [Trump Effect or the End of Globalization?] Moscow, RUSAJNS, 2017. 144 p.
15. Allison G. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017. 452 p.
16. Medidas proteccionistas a nivel global. Available at: https://www.goconqr.com/mindmap/13418396/medidas-proteccionistasa-nivel-global (accessed 27.10.2019).
17. Mikheev V.V., Lukonin S.A. Kitai–SShA: mnogovektornost’ “torgovoi voiny” [China–USA: Multi-vector “Trade War”]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2019, vol. 63, no. 5, pp. 57-66. DOI:10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-5-57-66
18. Brown C.P. US-China Trade War: The Guns of August. 20.09.2019. Available at: https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-andinvestment-policy-watch/us-china-trade-war-guns-august (accessed 19.10.2019).
19. Jaramillo C. El 43% de los gestores cree que la Guerra comercial no se resolvera nunca. El Economista, 16.10.2019. Available at: https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/10140562/10/19/El-43-de-los-inversores-cree-que-la-guerra-comercial-no-se-resolvera-nunca.html (accessed 19.10.2019).
20. IMF Working Paper. The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector. 30.07.2019. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/07/30/The-Long-Shadow-of-the-Global-Financial-Crisis-Public-Interventions-in-the-Financial-Sector-48518 (accessed 19.10.2019).
21. Khudyakova L.S. Reforma global›nykh finansov v kontekste ustoichivogo razvitiya [Reform of Global Finance in the Context of Sustainable Development]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2018, vol. 62, no. 7, pp. 38-47. DOI:10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-7-38-47
22. Georgieva K., IMF Managing Director. Decelerating Growth Calls for Accelerating Action. 08.10.2019. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/10/03/sp100819-AMs2019-Curtain-Raiser (accessed 15.10.2019).
23. IMF-FSB-BIS. Elements of Effective Macroprudential Policies. Lessons from International Experience. 31.08.2016. Available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/othp26.pdf (accessed 19.10.2019).
24. The IMF’s Annual Macroprudential Policy Survey – Objectives, Design, and Country Responses. 30.04.2018. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2018/04/30/pp043018-imf-annual-macroprudential-policysurvey (accessed 19.10.2019).
25. Afontsev S.A. Novye tendentsii v razvitii mirovoi ekonomiki [New Trends in the Development of World Economy]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2019, vol. 63, no. 5, pp. 36-46. DOI:10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-5-36-46
26. Remarks by President Trump in Working Lunch with Governors on Workforce Freedom and Mobility. 13.06.2019. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-working-lunch-governors-workforcefreedom-mobility/ (accessed 18.10.2019).
27. Milbank D. The Trump Economy House of Cards Collapses. The Washington Post, 21.06.2019.
28. Milbank D. It Was Never about ‘America First’. It’s Always Been Trump First. The Washington Post, 04.10.2019.
29. Ortega A. “Trump first, America less”. 15.10.2019. Available at: https://blog.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/trump-first-americaless/ (accessed 19.10.2019).
30. IMF News. Five Takeaways from Germany’s Economic Outlook. 10.07.2019. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/07/09/na07092019-five-takeaways-from-germanys-economic-outlook (accessed 12.10.2019).
31. Bohme H. Se termina el exito economico de Alemania? 18 de Julio de 2019. Available at: https://www.americaeconomia.com/analisis-opinion/se-termina-el-exito-economico-de-alemania (accessed 19.10.2019).
32. Bradsher K. China’s Economic Growth Slows as Challenges Mount. The New York Times, 17.10.2019.
33. Zagashvili V.S. Zastoi v VTO kak proyavlenie krizisa globalizatsii [WTO Stagnation as a Manifestation of the Globalisation Crisis]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2019, vol. 63, no. 6, pp. 5-12. DOI:10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-6-5-12
34. WTO. World Trade Report 2018: The Future of World Trade. How Digital Technologies are Transforming Global Commerce. Available at: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wtr18_e.htm (accessed 18.10.2019).
Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX
No comments