Innovation-Technological Breakthroughs: Influence on the Arms Control

538
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-6-70-83

L. Pankova (Lvpankova@imemo.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation;
O. Gusarova (Olgusarova@imemo.ru),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation

Acknowledgements. The study was carried out with the support of a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 18-18-00463).


Abstract. In the context of intensive innovation-digital developments for the provision of the deterrence in the interests of international security and strategic stability, the registration of technological factors of the defense systems development takes on greater and greater importance. Important aspects of the evolving or, better to say, “digital-technological” race, which influence strategic stability, may have a profound effect on the character, model, scales, instruments of arms deterrence, and on the perspectives of the arms control system as a whole. The main hypothesis of the work is as follows. High dynamics of the innovation-digital development is one of the key factors which determine the inevitability of the appearance of a new conceptual approach to the arms control and new forms of deterrence. The last, for an example, may be called a hybrid deterrence, including asymmetric threats deterrence, cyber deterrence, deterrence in space and deterrence by denial. The necessity to consider revolutionary and incremental innovations as important elements of national military power and international security is noted. Special attention is given to the perspectives of development and use of Big Data, automation, quantum computers, artificial intelligence, including such transforming, so-called “traditional” (incremental) technologies as hypersonic vehicles (for example). Interactions and integrations of the revolutionary and evolutional technologies in their influence on strategic stability and different sorts of arms deterrence are on the rise. It is suggested that such circumstances, with increasing complexity and a systemic character of the strategic deterrence environment, may lead to formation of the united universal arms deterrence in the future. The main characters of this universal system would be the eroding borders between different deterrence types and transfer of tasks between them: for instance, between nuclear and conventional weapons.

Keywords: digitalization, deterrence, strategic stability, national and international security, access lock, innovation, asymmetry, balances, drones, access systems, arms control


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For citation:
Pankova L., Gusarova O. Innovation-Technological Breakthroughs: Influence on the Arms Control. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2019, vol. 63, no. 6, pp. 70-83. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-6-70-83



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