990N. Pavlov (kotjaico@mail.ru),
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Russian Federation, 76, Vernadskogo Prosp., Moscow 119454, Russian Federation
Abstract. The concept of Russia’s special role in history and unique features of its civilization casts the following question aside – with whom shall the Russian Federation cooperate for the sake of its development, who are its partners, allies and friends? Does Europe with its high-technologies need Russia or vice versa? What role does or must Germany play in the complex structure of relations between Moscow and other Western countries under the conditions of the tough confrontation between the parties in this “brave new world”, which could not have been predicted by any of experts? The author believes that imperial and messianic thinking in categories “friend-enemy” peculiar to most of Russians has remained unchanged with disappearance of the socialist camp, dissolution of the Soviet empire and the end of confrontation between two systems. It is spread and warmed up by the ruling elite, which is not capable to solve economic problems in the country, but by all means is clinging to power, and to retain, is trying to cut the country off from the globalized world. Now it is important to understand that in the modern world, homeland security is ensured by means of upward economic development as well as integration with the neighboring countries, and these facts remove from the agenda different kinds of threats, fear and mistrust at once. While Europe and Russia need each other, the former in terms of raw material supply and maintaining peace and security on the continent (first of all it concerns Germany), the latter – for technical and technological reasons, profound changes in Russia-EU and Russia-Germany relations will not take place in the short and medium term. The most likely scenario is stagnation as there are no obvious signs of the Kremlin’s readiness to change its policy. At the same time, Russian-European ties in the field of politics and economy will get more and more marginalized, taking into account the tough anti-Kremlin line of Poland and the Baltic states, which Berlin, Russia’s historically preferable partner among European countries, will not be able to overcome alone.
Keywords: Russia, Germany, EU, Russian-German relations, German studies, foreign policy of A. Merkel
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