Intangible Matter

749
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-1-5-17

A. Arbatov (alarbatov@gmail.com),
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
 

Acknowledgements. The article has been supported by a grant of the Russian Science Foundation. Project  18-18-00463.  


Abstract. The subject of the prevention of arms race in the outer space is not new, but remains important for strategic stability and international security. The laws of space dynamics and its physical properties harshly limit its use, in particular the introduction of space-based weapon systems. This is exactly the reason why up to now all spacecraft of military or dual purpose are performing only information-command support of armed forces in traditional land, sea and air environments, as well as of ballistic missiles and anti-missiles which transit space as part of their trajectories. Nonetheless, a number of states are developing and testing anti-satellite systems of various basing modes. Hence, in the foreseeable future, the outer space may turn into the environment of arms race and use of force, prone with the growing threat of armed conflicts, their fast escalation to nuclear war, and of the collapse of arms control regimes. In 2008, at the Geneva Conference on Disarmament, Russia and China proposed a joint draft of the “Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects”. This draft has been met by the approval of the international community, except for the United States and its allies. Nonetheless, this draft treaty will hardly become a legal agreement, even if the U.S. attitude towards the subject changes in a positive way, since the draft has a number of substantive deficiencies and omissions. Apparently, if space arms control is ever to become a matter of practical negotiations, this would be a long and phased process reminiscent of the strategic arms limitation and reduction (to which space systems are technically closest), rather than a single overwhelming treaty as chemical or biological conventions. Despite all the complexities of the issue, in a better political environment, a first step might be feasible in the form of an agreement on the prohibition on testing anti-satellite systems of any basing mode against real space objects. If such a partial first step were made – it may pave the way to the follow-on treaties with broader and more stringent provisions and intrusive verification, as happened in the history of U.S. – Soviet/Russian strategic arms control after the first SALT 1 agreements of 1972.

Keywords: outer space, space arms, anti-satellite systems, spacecraft, satellites, space debris, ballistic missile defense, partially orbital bombardment missiles 


REFERENCES

1. Press conference on the results of the talks of the presidents of Russia and the USA. Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump made statements and answered the questions of the journalists. July 16, 2018. Helsinki (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58017 (accessed 28.07.2018).

2. Jonathan Ernst. Reuters. President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a meeting of the National Space Council at the White House in Washington, U. S. June 18, 2018. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-meeting-national-space-council-signing-space-policy-directive-3/ (accessed 08.07.2018).

3. Treaty on the principles governing the activities of states in the exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies (Outer Space Treaty), Articles II. IV (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/outer_space_governing.shtml (accessed 08.07.2018).

4. Legal Aspects of Reconnaissance in Airspace and Outer Space. Columbia Law Review, Columbia, 1961, June, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 1078-1086.

5. UCS Satellite Database. Union of Concerned Scientists. 31.08.2017. Available at: http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/space-weapons/satellite-database#.WCHPuE2LSUk (accessed 15.03.2018).

6. Kelso T.S. Basics of the Geostationary Orbit. Satellite Times, Colorado Springs, 1998. May Available at: http://www.celestrak.com/columns/v04n07/ (accessed 15.03.2018).

7. Veniaminov S., Chervonov A. Kosmicheskii musor – ugroza chelovechestvu [Space debris – a threat to mankind]. Moscow, IKI RAN, 2012. 192 p. ISSN 2075-6836

8. Russian and American satellites collided over Siberia. Lenta ru, 12.02.2009. (In Russ.) Available at: https://lenta.ru/news/2009/02/12/collision/ (accessed 15.02.2018).

9. Space Security 2008. Available at: http://spacesecurityindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/SSI2008.pdf (accessed 15.03.2018).

10. Dvorkin V. Space Weapons Programs. Outer Space: Weapons, Diplomacy, and Security. Arbatov A., Dvorkin V., eds. Washington, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, pp. 30-45.

11. Greetsai V.N., Kozlovsky A.H., Kuvshinnikov V.M., Loborev V.M., Parfenov Y.V., Tarasov O.A., Zdoukhov L.N. Response of Long Lines to Nuclear High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP). IEEE Transactions on Electromagnetic Compatibility, 1998, no. 40 (4), pp. 348-354. DOI:10.1109/15.736221

12. Zheleznyakov A. Avariya sputnika “Kosmos‑954 [Crash of the satellite “Cosmos‑954]. Kosmicheskii mir. Entsiklopediya “Kosmonavtika” [Cosmic world. Encyclopedia “Cosmonautics”] Available at: http://www.cosmoworld.ru/spaceencyclopedia/publications/index.shtml?zhelez_04.html (accessed 15.03.2018).

13. Molchanov B. The Militarization of Space and Space Weapons. Nuclear Proliferation: New Technologies, Weapons, Treaties. Arbatov A., Dvorkin V., eds. Moscow, Carnegie Moscow Center, 2009, pp. 160-185.

14. Myasnikov V. Kosmicheskii perekhvat udalsya: Amerika beret na pritsel okolozemnoe prostranstvo [Space intercept has worked: America aims at the near-Earth space]. Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, 29.02.2008. Available at: http://nvo.ng.ru/forces/2008-02-29/1_perehvat.html (accessed 15.03.2018).

15. Sheetz M., Macias A. President Trump directs Defense Department to ‘immediately begin the process’ of establishing space force’ as sixth military branch. CNBC, 18.06.2018. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/president-trump-directs-pentagon-defense-department-to-immediately-being-the-process-of-establishing-space-force-as-sixth-military-branch.html (accessed 15.08.2018).

16. Some fresh tidbits on the U.S. military space budget. Spacenews, March 21, 2018. Available at: https://spacenews.com/some-fresh-tidbits-on-the-u-s-military-space-budget/ (accessed 15.08.2018).

17. Vladimirov V. Vo vsyu silu legkikh [With the full force of lungs]. Voenno-promyshlennyi kur’er, 17.05.2016. Available at: https://vpk-news.ru/articles/30673 (accessed 15.08.2018).

18. Sokolov A., Falichev O. Variant “Kometa” [The “Comet” option]. Voenno-promyshlennyi kur’er, 04.07.2016. Available at: https://vpk-news.ru/articles/31313 (accessed 15.08.2018).

19. Tarasenko M. Voennye aspekty sovetskoi kosmonavtiki [Military aspects of the Soviet cosmonautics]. Moscow, TOO “Nikol”, Agentstvo Rossiiskoi Pechati, 1992. 164 .

20. Ivanov S., ed. Kosmicheskie sredstva vooruzheniya. Entsiklopediya XXI vek. Oruzhie i tekhnologii Rossii [Space weapons. The XXI century Encyclopedia. Russia′s Arms and technologies]. Moscow, “Oruzhie i tekhnologii”, vol. 5, 2002. 703 .

21. Podvig P. The Window of Vulnerability That Wasn’t: Soviet Military Buildup in the 1970s – A Research Note. International Security, 2008, vol. 33, no.1, pp. 118-138.

22. Cherkas S. Sovremennye politiko-pravovye problemy voenno-kosmicheskoi deyatel’nosti i osnovy metodologii ikh issledovaniya [Contemporary political-legal problems of military-space activities and basic methodology of their study]. Moscow, MO RF, 1995. 532 .

23. Sukhanov S., Grin’ko V., Smirnov V. Kosmos v voprosakh vooruzhennoi bor’by [Space in the issues of armed struggle]. Natsional’naya oborona, July 2008, no. 7 (28), pp. 29-42.

24. Russia is developing anti-satellite weapons in response to US steps in this ares, said deputy minister of defense for armaments general of the army Vladimir Popovkin. RIA Novosti, 05.03.2009. (In Russ.) Available at: https://ria.ru/defense_safety/20090305/163953438.html (accessed 15.08.2018).

25. Falichev O., Petrov Yu. Giperzvuk dlya boegolovok [Hypersonic warheads]. Voenno-promyshlennyi kurer, 02.07.2018. Available at: https://vpk-news.ru/articles/43508 (accessed 15.07.2018).

26. Ramm A, Kornev D. Okhotnik za sputnikami. Zaoblachnaya taina priotkryvaetsya s pomoshch’yu minskogo shassi [Hunter for Satellites. Sky-high mystery is revealed with the help of the Minsk chassis]. Voenno-promyshlennyi kur’er, 20.06.2016. Available at: https://vpk-news.ru/articles/31120 (accessed 15.08.2018).

27. Sivkov K. Asimmetrichniy Kalibr [Asymmetric Calibr]. Voenno-promyshlennyi kur’er, 23.07.2018. Available at: https://vpk-news.ru/articles/43965 (accessed 15.08.2018).

28. Bet on “Rudolph”: anti-satellite weapons will give Russia a huge advantage in a major conflict. 30.11.2017. (In Russ.) Available at: https://rueconomics.ru/292171-stavka-na-rudolfa-antisputnikovoe-oruzhie-dast-rf-ogromnoe-preimushchestvo-pri-krupnom-konflikte#from (accessed 15.01.2018).

29. Al-Ekabi C., Baranes B., Hulsroj P., Lahcen, A., eds. Yearbook on Space Policy 2014. The Governance of Space. Vienna, Springer VerlagGmbh, 2015. 320 p.

30. Topychkanov P. Features of the Outer Space Environment. Outer Space: Weapons, Diplomacy, and Security. Arbatov A., Dvorkin V., eds. Washington, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, pp. 2-15.

31. Acton J. Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions about Conventional Prompt Global Strike. Washington, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at: http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa=52778 (accessed 15.02.2018).

32. Gorina T. Rossiya ostalas’ bez “Oka”: kogda zarabotaet novaya kosmicheskaya sistema preduprezhdeniya o raketnoi atake? [Russia has been left without “Eye”: when the new space missile attack warning system will start working?] Moskovskii omsomolets, 11.02.2015. Available at: http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/02/11/rossiya-ostalas-bez-oka-kogda-zarabotaet-novaya-sistema-obnaruzheniya-raket.html (accessed 15.02.2017).

33. Antonov O. Mikrosputniki – ubiitsy giperzvukovykh raket [Microsatellites – hypersonic missiles’ killers]. Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, 10.08.2018. Available at: http://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2018-08-10/1_1008_miracle.html (accessed 15.08.2018).

34. Mizin V. Non-Weaponization of Outer Space. Outer Space: Weapons, Diplomacy, and Security. Arbatov A., Dvorkin V., eds. Washington, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, pp. 48-67.

35. Zhukov G. Russian-Chinese Initiative for the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space. Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security: IMEMO Supplement to the Russian Edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2008. Kaliadine A., Arbatov A., eds. Moscow, IMEMO, 2009, pp. 40-54.

36. Ivanov B. Teatr voennykh deistvii ukhodit na orbitu. [The theater of military operations goes into orbit]. Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, 29.06.2018. Available at: http://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2018-06-29/1_1002_tramp.html (accessed 15.07.2018).

37. The President’s Address to the Federal Assembly. March 1, 2018, Moscow (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957 (accessed 10.03.2018).

38. Shoigu Told How to Develop the Russian Army Until 2021. The Defense Minister Opened his Speech Lectures “Army and Society”. Komsomol’skaya pravda, 12.01.2017. (In Russ.) Available at: http://www.kp.ru/daily/26629/3647870/ (accessed 02.03.2018). 


Registered in System SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Arbatov A. Intangible Matter. World Eonomy and International Relations, 2019, vol. 63, no. 1, pp. 5-17. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-1-5-17



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed

 

 

 

 

Dear authors! Please note that in the VAK List of peer-reviewed scientific journals, in which the main scientific results of dissertations for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences should be published for the “MEMO Journal” the following specialties are recorded:
economic sciences:
5.2.5. World Economy.
5.2.1. Economic Theory
5.2.3. Regional and Branch Economics
political sciences:
5.5.4. International Relations
5.5.1. History and Theory of Politics
5.5.2. Political Institutions, Processes, Technologies

 

Current Issue
2024, vol. 68, No. 5
Topical Themes of the Issue:
  • Are There Any Ways to Break Through the Korean Nuclear Impasse?
  • Contemporary U.S. Taiwan Policy: Balancing on the Edge
  • The Gulf Monarchies’ Vision of the Global Order Transformations and the Russian Place in It
  • At Post-Soviet Space
Submit an Article
INVITATION FOR PUBLICATION
The Editorial Board invites authors to write analytical articles on the following topics:
  • changes in the processes of globalization in modern conditions
  • formation of the new world order
  • shifts in civilization at the stage of transition to a digital society

The editors are also interested in publishing synthesis articles / scientific reviews revealing the main trends in the development of certain regions of the world - Latin America, Africa, South Asia, etc.